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with more evidence that the surge strategy is working in iraq, the media is losing interest

By Charles Bird Posted in War — Comments (10) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

With a presidential contest in full flow and an economy having a case of the shakes, it's hard to find a lot of news on Iraq, and that in itself is newsworthy. Because of this, I thought I'd do my own news round-up.

New data from Iraq Body Count. The latest graph from IBC is here, and the numbers are consistent with other sources (hat tip to Engram for the graphs). IBC takes longer because they compile data from news reports, area morgues and the Interior Ministry.

More below the fold...

Electricity generation. The numbers are up.

Crude oil production. The numbers have been moving way up since last August, and the trends are favorable for the country soon exceeding Saddam-era levels, back when the Oil for Palaces and Hookers program was in effect.

Oil revenues. The numbers are way up, thanks to prices breeching $100 per barrel.

Dulim, Diyala province. Christian Science Monitor writer Scott Peterson covers the start-up of a Concerned Local Citizen (CLC) group in a small town in Diyala province, and it is a microcosm of how these CLCs have emerged all across the country. There are several things we can take away from this. First, the sheikhs and the new CLC members are heroes, putting their lives at stake to confront and repel al Qaeda goons. Second, they are taking a big step because they've cast their lot with American "occupiers", turning their collective backs on fellow Arabs. Lastly, ever CLC that gets formed is a step toward political progress in Iraq. Tribal leaders are also political leaders, and by rejecting al Qaeda and allying government-backed forces.

Al Qaeda in retreat. This entry from Bill Roggio is typical of what has been happening to al Qaeda.

Iraqi and Coalition forces continue to press the fight against al Qaeda in Iraq in the northeastern province of Diyala, where the terror group maintains small pockets. In the latest series of raids as part of Operation Raider Harvest, Iraqi and US forces killed 30 al Qaeda operatives and captured 21, including a senior al Qaeda leader, during raids and operations.

On Jan. 22 and Jan. 23, special operations teams of Task Force 88 carried out two raids north of Baqubah. The first raid targeted "an improvised explosive device specialist involved in coordinating IED and suicide-vest attacks in the region ... with ties to several al Qaeda in Iraq senior leaders." The Special Forces team killed the high-value target and one other operative during the raid, and found improvised explosive devices and grenades at the scene.

Al Qaeda remains lethal, however, and their latest attacks in Mosul are testament. But at the same time, we are gathering better intelligence on the terrorist group. From the Washington Post:

Suicide attacks by the Sunni group against Shiite targets sparked the sectarian violence that swept Iraq in 2006 and the first half of last year. Al-Qaeda in Iraq carried out more than 4,500 attacks against civilians in 2007, killing 3,870 and wounding nearly 18,000, the military announced yesterday.

Based on the Sinjar records, U.S. military officials in Iraq said they now think that nine out of 10 suicide bombers have been foreigners, compared with earlier estimates of 75 percent. Similarly, they assess that 90 percent of foreign fighters entering Iraq during the one-year period ending in August came via Syria, a greater proportion than previously believed.

Approximately 40% of the suicide bombers hailed from Saudi Arabia and another 40% were from North Africa. The Post also details some interesting information on the al Qaeda bureaucracy.

Al Sadr still laying low. Junior cleric Muqtada al Sadr and his Mahdi militia are feeling the heat from Iraqi forces:

Critics of the Iraqi government and the security forces like to point out that the military and police are dominated by groups like the Badr Brigade, which have been integrated into the security forces. Clashes between the military and Sadr's Mahdi Army are inaccurately described as intra-Shia violence.

But the fact is that Badr and other Shia groups decided to join the government of Iraq, and are carrying out the policies of that government. Sadr's Mahdi Army has taken support from Iran and seeks to undermine the government.

Sadr's spokesman is admitting that the Shia-led government is targeting the Shia Mahdi Army, which is backed by Iran. If Sadr drops the cease fire, this would be tantamount to declaring war on the government. This would destabilize the improving security situation, but would allow the Iraqi government and U.S. forces to shift focus from al Qaeda to the Mahdi Army. Sadr's six month ceasefire expires in February, while a drawdown of U.S. forces is not likely to begin until April.

The Iraqi Army and police have moved significant forces to the Shia South over the past several months to deal with the security vacuum created by the British drawdown in Basrah. Well over a division of troops have been moved to the South.

The Iraqi Army and police badly beat back the cult-like Soldiers of Heaven uprising last weekend. The Iraqi defense ministry said 272 members of the Soldiers of Heaven were killed, wounded, or captured during recent clashes in Basrah and Nasiriyah. These were well-armed, fanatical fighters looking to bring on the Shia version of the apocalypse. This has not gone unnoticed by Sadr.

This is a classic counterinsurgency maneuver because government forces are making it more costly for al Sadr to rebel than to join the government.

Even the UN admits there's progress. Times have changed since the incompetent, ineffectual and wrongheaded Kofi Annan was in charge of the UN. From Reuters:

The United Nations envoy to Baghdad said on Wednesday he would present a positive picture of progress in Iraq in a report to the Security Council despite earlier having serious misgivings about reconciliation efforts. U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura said the passing of a key law allowing former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party to return to government jobs had changed what had been a pessimistic view of progress in a crucial year for Iraq.

Whither the troops? In an interview with U.S. News, General Petraeus is cautious about manpower levels and concerned about withdrawing too quickly:

But Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, knows that some of the hardest work still lies ahead if the fragile peace is to be converted into a lasting one. The political divisions in Iraq remain deep, and if they are not bridged soon, civil war could well erupt again. Further, a battle royal has begun within the U.S. administration over how quickly to draw down troops. There is pressure for an accelerated withdrawal not only because the five-year war has strained the Army but also because more troops are needed in Afghanistan and as a strategic reserve for troubles elsewhere, such as in Pakistan. The concern here is that reducing troop levels too fast, before there is progress on national reconciliation, would jeopardize the gains that have been made.

Whither Petraeus? Given the success of the surge strategy over the past eleven months, the Pentagon was considering moving General Petraeus to NATO commander. Max Boot thinks it's a bad idea (and I agree) and he posits a better one:

That doesn’t mean that Petraeus needs to stay in Iraq forever. He’s already logged plenty of time in the war zone, and it would be understandable if he tires of the crushing burden of command. But it would be a waste of the insights that he has accumulated to send him to NATO, where he would be out of the Iraq fight. It would make more sense to send Petraeus to Central Command, replacing the unimpressive Admiral Fox Fallon, and thereby allowing Petraeus to stay involved in the command loop not only in Iraq but also in Afghanistan as well. As for his replacement in Iraq, who better than Odierno, after he has a chance to rest and recharge his batteries stateside? That would keep the winning team together.

That would be a real promotion for Petraeus because it would expand his sphere of influence into Afghanistan.

Whither Ambassador Crocker? We haven't heard much from Ryan Crocker since his testimony last September, and here's an update:

Reconciliation between Iraq's divided communities is gaining momentum at a national level, especially in parliament where lawmakers are working "intensively", the U.S. ambassador to Iraq said on Thursday.

But Ryan Crocker said he was not about to predict that the dark days of 2006 and early 2007, when the country teetered on the brink of all-out sectarian civil war, were over.

"Intense bitterness remains and there are a lot of challenges that are going to have to be carefully ... managed to ensure there is no return because to be frank, all of the good things that have been accomplished during this past year could be reversed," Crocker said in an interview with Reuters.

He said much had been made possible on national reconciliation in the past few months by sharp plunges in violence. Attacks have fallen by 60 percent since last June, when 30,000 additional U.S. troops became fully deployed.

Iraq's parliament -- frequently chastised by U.S. officials and lawmakers last year for inaction -- approved a landmark bill this month that allows former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party to rejoin the government and the military.

[...]

He said parliament "really had never been so intensively engaged on issues of national legislation as they have been since the beginning of the year".

But key legislation such as an oil law that would equitably share revenue from Iraq's vast oil reserves remains stalled. And this week lawmakers refused to ratify the government's 2008 budget, partly because of disputes over allocations.

Another key benchmark sought by Washington, the holding of provincial elections, had been expected to be held last year but no date has been set.

Crocker said he was "hearing a new tone" on provincial elections, adding all parties wanted to hold them this year, an event he said could be "hugely important" in stabilising Iraq.

Sunni Arabs are represented in parliament after taking part in national elections in December 2005, but they largely boycotted provincial elections in January 2005 and are under- represented in many areas where they are numerically dominant.

Crocker also urged the government to make sure it delivered basic services to all Iraqis. Many Iraqis now say the lack of jobs and the frequent shortages of electricity and water are their biggest concerns, not security.

"This will be a year in which security gains will have to be protected and consolidated. The focus is going to have to be on things like services, on economic opportunities and job creation," he said.

Media missteps. D.J. Elliott at the Long War Journal describes two situations where the media just doesn't get it, and Robert Bateman takes the New York Times to task for its incompetent and misleading reporting on American soldiers who've committed violent acts stateside. For this reason alone, McCain should throw it back.