Redstate

While Baghdad is now tittering on collapse and Mosul is being walled up like Baghdad, Basra is different

I'd love to know where you're getting the information you use to draw such inaccurate conclusions.

On Baghdad subject to collapse:

Health and disease:
http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=6689
Unemployment:
http://atlanticfreepress.com/content/view/3465/81/
Medical care:
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/20080219_Iraqis_medical_t...
Instability:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/is-the-us-really-bri...

Of course, you will no doubt understand it all different.

Why Basra is a economic giant and oily tinder-box:

...
Basra, where 4,000 British troops are based, has been described as 'the lung' of Iraq by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The region accounts for 90 per cent of government revenue and 70 per cent of Iraq's proven oil reserves. It has access to the Gulf and is potentially one of the richest areas in the Middle East, but continues to be plagued by rival militias.
...

Why Sadr is being watched and is still dangerous:
...

For now, Kimmitt says, two of these three disparate movements are aligned mostly with the U.S. military and the key question will be whether they will eventually shift their support behind the Baghdad national government. "Eventually, for this to really resonate, they're going to have to start believing in supporting their own central government," Kimmitt says. The second question is whether al-Sadr can continue to control his Mahdi Army. Military strategists are watching al-Sadr and his movements very closely right now. For Kimmitt, the question is whether the organization will splinter and "become another problem on the battlefield for our troops."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/24/iraq.oil

So, it's conjecture on my part that if Basra ignites (which is a real possibility), Sadr may need to order his men to Basra, or else lose his Army, as he will not want their enemies to cease control in Basra.

...bubble. And Baghdad, subject to collapse? You're a couple years too late for that one.

Why he still has an Army and is a threat:

It's what he does when he comes back on the scene that should have U.S. officials worried. Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who closely follows developments in Iraq, calls Sadr's decision to rein in his forces a "pretty huge" part of the recent progress. But he isn't convinced that the young cleric has graciously taken himself out of the game without a long-term strategic agenda in mind. O'Hanlon doesn't see Sadr as a weaker player, "but a person who is deciding if he wants to play politics or go back to the battlefield," says O'Hanlon. "I wish I could think Sadr has taken this position out of weakness."

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1712055,00.html

...
Sadr, the son of a beloved religious figure slain under Saddam Hussein's regime, has built Iraq's largest social movement, providing assistance to hundreds of thousands of destitute Shiites. He is furthering his religious studies so he can become an ayatollah with the authority to issue religious edicts known as fatwas. And he commands what is arguably the country's largest militia.

But retaining control of his forces probably will remain one of his greatest challenges. In the southern oil hub of Basra, a senior member of Sadr's movement said Friday that many followers had wanted the cease-fire to end.
...

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-sadr23feb23,1,345990...

The number of Mahdi members is unclear. Some estimates range as high as 50,000 to 60,000 hardcore fighters, but others have set the figure lower. There are also many non-militiamen who are sympathetic to al-Sadr and his movement. It takes its name from a messianic figure central to Shiite Islam: the Mahdi, or so-called Hidden Imam, who disappeared as a child in the 9th century. Shiites believe he will return one day to bring justice to Earth.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jnWpm2Jq8v9zkEsniFM_CemhvqrQD8UVAHGG0

This is half a year old, but still relevant I believe:

...
In the fight between Shiite factions, Mr. Sadr's army has emerged as the most formidable force.

The militia is said to number 17,000 in Basra alone and is divided into 40 company-size military units, according to a senior Iraqi security official. Little is known about their local leader, Muntasir al-Maliki, who had replaced a commander killed by British forces in late May, except what's said about him having killed his own father a few years ago because he was an unrepentant supporter of the former regime.

They control multiple units in the 14,500-strong police force, and hold sway in hospitals, the education board, the university, ports and oil terminals, and the oil products and electricity distribution companies, says a Basra-based, Iraqi researcher.
...

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0917/p01s08-wome.html

Regarding Baghdad:
Yesterday:

It had been widely expected that some support troops sent to Iraq with the five extra brigades would need to remain, even after July. But until now it was not clear what the number would be.

General Ham stressed that his projected number of 140,000 was subject to change depending on security conditions, but it was the first time the Pentagon had publicly estimated the total.

Asked if the total would be below 132,000 by the time President Bush leaves office next January, General Ham said, “It would be premature to say that.” Among the support forces needed beyond July, General Ham said, are military police officers, logistics troops, aviation forces and a headquarters staff to command combat forces in an area south of Baghdad. The headquarters of the Third Infantry Division was installed there as part of President Bush’s increase in forces in April. It will be replaced this summer by an unspecified unit, General Ham said.

Baghdad is essentially being contained in a US military pressure-cooker. The unspoken goal of keeping the additional troops there longer is to retain gained stability in it's security; removing the troops would jeopardize stability in Baghdad. Therefore, the stability of Baghdad is in delicate balance.

I find it interesting that you'll arguing facts with the guy who went there, and went out into the field, but are taking some press reports from known-biased outlets at face value, when the quality of that particular reporting is unknown.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

Those same outlets aren't even backing his position now. I guess some people can't be happy unless the end is near.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

The first time was in the military.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

success became obvious? Considering the number of enemies he has made, I suspect his peace strategy is designed to:
1) make him look like a player
2) impress foreigners
3) postpone the rendezvous with the 72 virgins as long as he can.

As far as Basra, if it's as bad as you say, which I doubt, then the Brits blew that one. That was their responsibility.