Redstate

they probably get 95% of their strategic intelligence on Western capabilities and intentions from reading the newspapers and news magazines in the West.

I don't see how they could watch the continuing mewling of Democrat politicians as well as Saint Chuck and Saint Linc and not think we're weak. Hell, I live here and I have my doubts...

This is the response to the hysterical screams about WMDs and BushLiedPeopleDied™. They think they have a free pass to do whatever they want now and there is no way we'll call them on it... where if we had been unified behind Iraq they'd be singing a whole different tune... the same tune Libya sang after we invaded.
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"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson

of course, that's who the war is paying dividends for.

Really, Harold, you think we didn't know that was happening in the past, that we had to wait until those items appeared on the battlefield to figure it out?

that it is interesting that even with the "sparse" intel we have on the goings on in Iran we knew those weapons were on those airplanes.

Sort of makes one think that maybe we know more about whats going on, and where certain facilities are located, than we let on :-)

John
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Why would God invent a thing like whiskey? To keep the Irish from ruling the world of course.

The proof is what the Israelis recovered from the battlefield. That's "open source" intelligence - after a fashion.

I think the strategic losses to Iran and Syria have been grossly underestimated. People have been overly fixated on the tactical draw.

news reports that the Turks have detained, at our behest, at least on Iranian airplane enroute to Lebanon and found weapons on board. In addition several more returned to Iran after being told they would have to land and submit to inspection. Apparently we have some intel that was able to identify the particular flights with weapons on board.

John
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Why would God invent a thing like whiskey? To keep the Irish from ruling the world of course.

Is gave them clearance to fly through Iraqi airspace then shoot them down. We had satellite picture of the planes being loaded so we knew what was on board.
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"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson

But now we have proof - and proof that came about via "open" sources (to wit, captured by the IDF on the battlefield). That means we can make the case for preemption with much lower risk to intelligence sources than we would have had to six weeks ago. In fact, I submit that it has apparently already paid dividends for us in that an Iranian attempt to resupply Hezbolalh via air was stopped when Turkey and Iraq denied overflight rights for an Iranian plane. Those intelligence sources will be saved for what really matters - locating critical elements of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

The public proof of Iranian and Syrian support of Hezbollah, as well as the proof that Hezbollah stages (and fakes) photos are really two of the biggest strategic losses that the Axis of Evil has suffered in this round of fighting. Those night-vision goggles the Israelis captured are proof positive the Iran's world is worth less than used toilet paper. Also, Hezbollah's propaganda will be much less effective, and it is already more difficult for Iran to re-supply its proxy army, which is in meed of a few thousand rockets to replace those it fired into northern Israel. Hezbollah must m,ake do with what it can get from Syria - and Syria could have trouble getting new stuff thans to diplomatic pressure on Russia that can now be applied (again, without risking intelligence sources). Logistics for Hezbollah got a lot more complicated - and for a short-term gain in prestige for fighting the IDF to a tactical draw. Strategically, they are hurt bad - and there's a good chance there could be renewed and much-less restrained Israeli action.

The fighting in Lebanon was a sideshow - Israel vs. the proxy of Syria and Iran. The main event of this phase of the war on terror was probably going to be the United States vs. Iran. I think that the diplomatic and strategic position of the United States is far better than it was six weeks ago - precisely because we now have that hard evidence the Israelis got.

Put it this way: The United States now has enough hard proof via public sources that it can walk away from the negotiating table over Iran's nuclear program at a time of its choosing - and then act forcefully under the Bush Doctrine without UN approval, and we can blunt any effort to condemn such an action in the Security Council one way or another. Yeah, the Iranians apparently have some dividends, but they also suffered severe strategic losses, and we now have a lot more latitude in the diplomatic and strategic arena than we did when the war started. That's not good news for Iran by a long shot.

Iran's "dividends" strike me as being very paltry when compared to what we gained on the strategic and diplomatic fronts.

And may He agree with you.

because as I see it there was a tactical draw for Israel when it should have racked up a rout and it was a huge strategic defeat for them. From my point of view Hezbollah will reoccupy their old positions, they will be rearmed, and they will be able to claim they won, again rightfully in my view.

We'll see how all this shakes out, I really hope you are right but I fear not.

The track record of the Bush Administration is pretty much all I need to keep that in mind. The Bush Administration had no problem taking out Saddam's regime on somewhat more flimsy evidence (he was known to be harboring various terrorists) that focused more on WMDs.

Here, there is hard proof publicly released that not only has Iran supplied Hezbollah in the past, but in getting Trukey and Iraq to help out by blocking that recent shipment of C-802s from coming through their airspace, we have proof that the Khameni-Ahmadinejad regime still seeks to support Hezbollah and provide them with weapons. We also have their open declarations about their nuclear program.

Short version, if we had enough evidence to justify war with Iraq (and I think we did), then there is more than ample evidence to justify pre-emptive action against Iran. At this point, the timing will probably be dictated more by intelligence and logistics factors on our part than any diplomatic factors.

"The United States now has enough hard proof via public sources that it can walk away from the negotiating table over Iran's nuclear program at a time of its choosing...."

I have zero confidence that will happen. The same person who cooked up Reso. 1701 is responsible for putting the US at the table with Iran only a few weeks ago. She's not walking away; she's fully commited to the diplo. route.

...artillery shelling Kurdish Iraq recently? I heard a the tail-end of a call on Bill Bennett wherein this claim was made.

"...following the recent killing of the top commander of the Kurdish paramilitary forces working for the Iranian government..."

http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=13053

"The Road To Freedom Is Seldom Traveled By The Multitude" Madhouse Thought

Here it is
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"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson

"The Road To Freedom Is Seldom Traveled By The Multitude" Madhouse Thought

thought it was the right link but I edited my post after a preview and probably took off a bracket or something.