2006 Senate Outlook
By Adam C Posted in Elections — Comments (13) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I know it's early to talk about it, but I'm a big Senate pundit. With RedState.org's endorsements carrying the day in 2004, we look forward to more successes in 2006. The Senate is the only elected body that we do not have full control over and I think it is reasonable to see a filibuster-proof Senate in the few election cycles. We discussed this on RedState before. Now the National Review has its initial listing and commentary. Check those links out and give us some "on the ground" commentary from your region. Here are the close races according to the National Review:
Likely battles seem to include:
FLORIDA (D):
When Mel Martinez formally succeeds Bob Graham next year, Sen. Bill Nelson will be Florida's last remaining Democrat elected statewide. Martinez emerged from a crowded GOP primary field this year and the group of Republican candidates interested in taking on Nelson may be even larger, especially because Gov. Jeb Bush says he's not running. The contenders could include attorney general Charlie Crist, Rep. Mark Foley, businessman Tom Gallagher, Rep. Katherine Harris, Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings, former statehouse speaker Daniel Webster, and Rep. Dave Weldon.
MARYLAND (D):
Democratic senator Paul Sarbanes, 73 years old in 2006, is a potential retiree. Republicans will have a tough time winning an open seat, but Gov. Bob Ehrlich recently showed that Maryland is not a one-party state. If Sarbanes steps down, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele — a GOP rising star — may think about a race.
MICHIGAN (D):
As a first-term incumbent in a swing state, Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow is a likely GOP pickup target. But Republicans may have trouble recruiting a top-tier candidate if potential contenders decide to take a pass and wait for Democratic senator Carl Levin to step down in 2008. Keep an eye on state GOP chair Betsy DeVos, Rep. Candice Miller, and Rep. Joe Rogers.
MINNESOTA (D):
First-term Democratic senator Mark Dayton will sit near the top the GOP's hit-list, especially if Sen. Coleman heads the NRSC. Dayton's decision to close his Capitol Hill office shortly before Election Day encountered almost universal criticism and highlighted his extreme vulnerability. The GOP's best potential candidate may be Rep. Mark Kennedy. Wouldn't it be neat to have a Republican named Senator Kennedy?
NEBRASKA (D):
Republican governor Mike Johanns will face enormous pressure from the national party to challenge Democratic senator Ben Nelson, who has raised more than $1 million to defend his seat. The Omaha World Herald already has polled likely voters on this matchup: Nelson holds a small lead, 41 percent to 38 percent. Potential monkey-wrench: What if Nelson decides to switch parties? It would probably have to involve a deal to stop Johanns from taking him on in the GOP primary.
NEW JERSEY (D):
No Republican has won a Senate election here since 1972, but all bets are off if Democratic senator Jon Corzine runs for governor next year and wins (thereby vacating his Senate seat). Gov. Corzine would get to pick his successor; Rep. Robert Menendez would be a strong possibility, but perhaps no stronger than any other Democrat from the state's House delegation. The GOP would have many possible nominees, including former Jersey City mayor (and 2001 gubernatorial candidate) Bret Schundler and former NYPD police commissioner Bernard Kerik.
PENNSYLVANIA (R):
Democrats will want to pick a better candidate than left-wing congressman Joe Hoeffel, last seen being steamrolled by Sen. Arlen Specter, to take on Republican senator Rick Santorum. One interesting pick would be Bob Casey Jr., a pro-life Democrat who has just been elected state treasurer, but he appears to be removing himself from consideration. Other possibilities include Treasurer Barbara Hafer (a former Republican), Teresa Heinz-Kerry (fun but not likely), MSNBC talker Chris Matthews (even less likely), and Philadelphia mayor John Street.
TENNESSEE (R):
Although Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is safe, there is some speculation he will retire in order to pursue the presidency. An open seat here would interest Democrats — there would be a flurry of discussion about Al Gore's unlikely return to electoral politics, plus the possibility of Rep. Harold Ford, Jr., making a run. GOP aspirants would include Rep. Marsha Blackburn, former congressman Ed Bryant, Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, and former congressman Van Hilleary. Important fact: Republicans now have carried open seats in the South nine times in a row.
VIRGINIA (R):
Democratic governor Mark Warner isn't allowed to run for reelection next year, and he probably represents his party's best hope against first-term Republican senator George Allen. But will he go for it? The ambitious Warner may be thinking about his party's veep slot, or even the White House, which means he won't want to risk a loss against Allen. And would Warner really present much of a challenge? His chief legacy as governor is a tax hike; Allen would stand a good chance of eating him alive. Bonus twist: Listen carefully as reporters quiz Allen on serving out a second term — he's widely believed to harbor presidential ambitions.
WASHINGTON (D):
Democratic senator Maria Cantwell won her first election, four years ago, by a little more than 2,000 votes. Republicans would love to recruit former Rep. Jennifer Dunn, but her retirement from politics may be permanent. Another possible contender is Dino Rossi, this year's Republican nominee for governor. His election is so close that they're still counting ballots; as of this morning, he holds a 19-vote lead over his Democratic opponent, Christine Gregoire, with about 6,100 ballots left to go. There are probably a few GOP senators who privately hope Rossi loses — so that he can take on Cantwell and win.
That looks like 7 Dems and 3 Repubs that are battlegrounds. Of course, unexpected retirements and many Chafee scenarios could change this list. But I am still a believer that if Republicans are carrying 31 states and Democrats are carrying 19 (or 30-20 in 2000), then the Senate should be close to 60-40 give or take 2 seats. The realignment of the South is not yet over (FL, LA, 2 AR) and the plains states are not as Red as the Presidential map suggests (2 ND, SD, NE). In 2006, ND, NE and FL Dems are up for re-election. Two years out, it looks like a Republican pickup or two are the most likely outcomes, but much will happen between now and then.
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2006 Senate Outlook 13 Comments (0 topical, 13 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
...if it's realistic that he can win; it'd be a good setup for a Veep slot in '12 (assuming that the Dems win in '08, which is a very open question). If he can't win the Senate race, then Steele and Erlich need to sit down and work out whether or not the latter wants to take a stab at it.
Honestly, I don't know. I am new to Washington politics as I have only lived here for 4 months. I wouldn't count him out though. As seen by this election, he has broad appeal. Keep in mind, there is a Libertarian candidate in this race that is pulling a significant amount of votes. I believe it was about 2% (63,000 votes)when I last checked. I can't help but conclude that if she were not in this race, Dino would be moving into the governor's mansion. He's definitely one to watch.
His convention speech was great and he is a great orator. I think the Senate would be a great place for him if the seat is open. I don't think anyone can beat Sarbanes if he runs. In that case, Steele should hold off to run for Governor and then see where the winds blow him (Senate, VP, or President). I hope to see more of him in one way or another. And Senator Steele (R-MD) would be pretty.
I'd actually heard the people thought Ruth Bennett, as a lesbian running almost exclusively on a platform of same sex marriage, was thought to have taken more from Gregoire this cycle than from Rossi. But who knows...
Matt Rosenberg (in another thread) talks about this very assumption. I happen to be one that agrees with Matt's point of view, but we could be wrong. Who knows? Hopefully it will all be over soon so we can all move on.
At any rate, I don't see Dino being done in Washington politics if he loses this.
another pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment Democrat against Santorum, because they tried that last time with Rep Klink (who knew NUSSING...sorry, wrong Klink.)
What they found is that very few Democratic party piggy banks, especially NARAL, Emily's List, and all the other "choice" groups wanted to give him money.
Plus, other prominent national Democrats were reluctant to campaign for him at the risk of pissing off said Democratic piggy banks.
The only Democrat you need to worry about is Rendell. while I think he's a horse's ass, he'd beat Santorum by at least 5 points.
I forgot to say about the possible Santorum opponents. Forget about John Street. He has NO SHOT!
Back in 2003, a month before the election, it was only about 60-40 that he'd be reelected Mayor. Then, the whole bugging scandal broke, and it enabled Street and his surrogates to play the race card and stage a major get out the vote effort that pushed him to a pretty easy victory.
Well, it's been proven that the bugging was justified and that his administration is corrupt enough to even shock most Philadelphians (and believe me, our tolerance for corruption is pretty high).
Playing the race card like he did might work in a Mayors race in a city that's 45-50% black, but it won't work statewide.
The National Review article made the comment that Byrd had this one as long as he wants it. I'm not so sure about this.
I think he could be beaten with the right candidate. West Virginia has trended to the Republicans statewide in recent years, going from a Clinton win in 96 to a 3% Bush win in 2000 to a 10% Bush win in 2004.
Byrd is way past his prime. Getting the right candidate will be hard. My favorite is Shelley Moore Capito, currently in Congress. She's tough, telegenic, and well liked in her district. I think she would have a chance.
Of course she would have to fight the "permanent billboards" that are all over the state -- Robert C. Byrd Drive, Robert C. Byrd Federal Office Building, Robert C. Byrd Bridge, Robert C. Byrd IRS center, etc.
If he does lose (which seems very unlikely) he'll be first in line to take a crack at Maria Cantwell in 2006, I expect.
You may recall that if South Dakota's John Thune had not been defeated (some say as a result of Democratic ballotbox manipulation on the state's Indian reservations) by Senator Johnson in 2002, he would not have been available to take on Daschle in 2004. Daschle would probably still be the Democrats' Senate leader in the new congress. The Democrats in Washington who are doing everything possible to manufacture new Gregoire votes in the recount process may well rue the day they defeated Dino--if they do. He could then take on Cantwell and perhaps ride his energized base to victory in 2006.
It's strange, Patty Murray is the more extreme of our two Washington Senators, (she made some really dumb comments about Osama Bin Ladin). You'd think Maria Cantwell would be safe since the GOP couldn't knock off Patty, but in fact Maria has a bad reputation up here in Washington, mainly due to her nickname: Maria "Can'tVoteVeryWell" A strong challanger in an off-election year might do her in. Jennifer Dunn would of course be the most threatening, but even Nethercutt might be strong enough. Nethercutt's main problem was not that he didn't run well in King County, no Republican does. Nethercutt didn't get enough support in the mountain counties or the southwest and Olympic counties. Clark and Pierce are the counties to watch for Republicans in state wide elections for Washington. You pretty much have to win big in Clark- by at least 10,000 votes, and make Pierce a squeeker to win as a Republican state-wide. Compare Nethercutt's results with Dino's results. Dino actually won Pierce. I don't know if Dino would want to run for the Senate if he lost- but it looks as the he has won the Governer's seat. Maybe Dino can takeout Murray in 6 to 12 years.
I've been told by friends on the east coast that even if Byrd retires WV will likely remain in Democrat hands. I'm told there aren't many potential Republican canadites, and that Democrats still dominate local and state elections. I get the impression that WV is where most of the south was 20 years ago. She votes Republican for President and Blue dog Democrat for local office.
For the WA experts, would Rossi be interested in running for Senate if he loses the recount?