Redstate

Ben Nelson is being flogged as a prospective Secretary of Agriculture. If he did that, the governor would appoint a Republican making it 56-43-1. I don't think Nelson would like to take the heat for that.

But....

If he thought Dodd and Corzine were going to pull pitch to make a run for governor he'd have a good defense.

But Evan Bayh would be tough to beat in '08.  He's just come off a decisive victory in Indiana -- despite the fact that, in the same election, Indiana went overwhelmingly for Bush, elected a Republican governor, and the Republicans took the Senate and House.  As I heard more than one person say 'round the watercooler:  "I voted a straight Republican ticket.  Well, except for Evan Bayh."  Anyone who can shift Indiana from Red to Blue (and he probably can) is likely to swing Ohio and Iowa his way as well.  

The Democrats are unlikely to nominate him, though.  Too conservative.

I don't think he is a great conservative, or even close (I have more respect for people who are at least honest and do not pander, like Russ Feingold). Even if he were another Zell Miller, Hoosiers wouldn't support him for the Presidency. They might vote for a favorite son in the Senate, but they know he is in the minority. He does not wield any power. If he ran for President he would be beholden to baby killers, trial lawyers, quota crunchers -- not in the interests of most Hoosiers.

This is a good piece.  You are right to assume that the dems won't stick around if they are out of power.  They can only live on so long as spoilers and obstructionists.  The real warning shot for them was South Dakota going for Thune.. They now will have to decide if they can regain the Senate which is by nature a home for good old boys and obstructionists.  If  many more new young faces show up the old guard will no doubt decide to call it a day. If Bush could entice some of them into the cabinet it would be sweet but that may be a bit hopeful. He tends to see the office he holds to be above any political shananigans.. to his credit , he is no Clinton when it comes to using the presidency for party gain.  He views history as a harsh judge and relies on history to deal with those like Kerry and Clinton, that they will be judged to be  the politcal opportunists that they are.  The dems though seem to have no antidote for anything as thier main scheme being obstrucionism is weakening every election.  We will see, but this was a good post for sure.  

I continue to hear rumors that Rep. Harris is going to be the frontrunner to contest Bill Nelson, all because the party 'owes' her for not running this year. I think that she would lose. She might lose quite badly. Could we throw our support behind someone else (anyone else, except Mark Foley -- he also can't win most of the state, albeit for different reasons) before it's too late?

Kerryspot reported today that Nelson turned down the AG secretary job, opting to stay in the Senate.  The GOP apparently will have to defeat him in '06 (highly possible) to get this seat.  

I think the premise above is right - once one leaves it will start a rush out the door.  But don't forget their could be movement on the GOP side (retirements, appts) that would cause the GOP to have to defend more seats in '06.

Biden leads the Senate's Trifecta of Dolts: Joe "the Plagiarizer" Biden, Ted "I'm an Excellent Driver" Kennedy and Robert "The Conscience" Byrd (who never met a slice of pork he didn't like).

Seriously, Biden is lucky he hails from a fairly non-descript state like DE. Any serious state would find his representation positively shameful and would vote him out accordingly.

If Biden insists on running for POTUS, I say come on down. The political process could use the comic relief...even if it only lasts a couple of weeks.

When I read the title of this article, I thought there would be some mention of Democrats who are already planning or quite likely to leave the Senate.  But aside from (arguably) Corzine and Dodd, I don't really see that at all.  

Biden, Hillary and Bayh all giving up Senate seata to run for President?  Seems quite unlikely.

And as far as "those looking to get out of the way of the liberal trainwreck," again the list is both scanty (two entries) and  a bit dubious.  Nelson and Lieberman jumping from the Senate to the cabinet? I'll believe it when I see it. Why would Nelson want to be Secretary of Agriculture?  If you ask me he'd have to be nuts to take that job. Which would you rather be, a Senator or Secretary of Agriculture?  I know what I'd pick.  And is there any evidence that Lieberman's being moved to the cabinet was anything but a blogger fantasy?

Anyway, it's clear the the Senate is going to tilt right for the foreseeable future since so many small states are Republican.  But I see very little support for the "minority Democrats are jumping ship" idea in this article.  

This is pure speculation without a lot of facts to back it up.  From my perspective it looks like wishful thinking.  I think the Democrats have an awful lot of fight in them yet and I've been suprised at the discipline they've displayed over the last three years or so, particularly in the Senate.

I'd be suprised if any D Senators quit the senate if their replacements would be named by R Governors, and that includes Feinstein.  As for those facing the "trainwreck" - They have proven two things in the last couple of years; 1 - that they can raise money quite well and 2 - that they're willing to stick to their guns and go down fighting.

We've done well in the last two election cycles but now is not the time to ease up and plan for a cakewalk in the next one.  To paraphrase Han Solo: "Don't get cocky kid..."

She has said several times, again just recently that she isn't going to run for governor. Feinstein normally does not go back on her word. She ran for governor in 1990 and she lost. She probably doesn't want to try the experience again. She is also very cozy in the Senate. She gets lots of money from drug companies and she is held in high esteem by Californians. If she ever got into a position where she had to make tough choices, as Arnold has to do, the public would turn against her.

With the exception of Jon Corzine, I don't think any Democrats will retire by 2006. I think all the retirements will be on the Republican side, but they will be in states where Democrats have no chance of winning (Texas and Tennessee).

What makes you think that Bill Nelson is in such a strong position in Florida?  He's done nothing since he got to the Senate except become more liberal than he ever was as a Congressman.

He has certainly been a disappointment to the center-right Central Floridians whom he represented in the House for many years.  I recall him being a pretty reasonable Democrat back then (he was my Congressman while I was a Florida resident).  But since he was elected to the Senate in 2000, he's mostly fallen into lock-step with the Democrats.

He's looked like a one-termer for quite some time now.  I really don't think he'll be tough to beat (if he chooses to run at all).

but I'll take issue with this:

I don't think he is a great conservative, or even close (I have more respect for people who are at least honest and do not pander, like Russ Feingold)

He's not a conservative.  He's a moderate.  So I don't get your "at least honest and do not pander" statement.  

I've always found Evan Bayh to be a fairly reasonable-sounding Senator. Certainly less sanctimonious than the typical moderate.

I'm not sure he could win a Democrat primary but he'd be a tough national candidate.

ps-- can I get a week out of purgatory for this post.

Most of the remarks he chooses on talk shows suggest that he wants people to think he is a conservative. I think that he tells people what they want to hear. I don't feel he has any conviction.

That was the nicest thing I've ever seen you post about a Democrat.  Check your temperature.

Betty Castor was a shabby candidate - she supported terrorists for goodness sake - and she almost won even though President Bush won the state by 5% and the Republican nominee hoarded the Latino vote. Bill may be liberal but he has kept a low profile and I haven't heard of him becoming unpopular. Florida is a diverse state and it's going to be difficult to convince voters that they should have an all-Republican statewide set of politicians.