Redstate

This is a great post. And it's really great to be looking ahead like this. We can't rest and take things for granted. Next year the parties will be recruiting for the 2006 congressional races, and we need to be as competitive as possible. Imagine: a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority!

As an addendum to your list: George Allen will probably be challenged by our current governor, Mark Warner. Allen will win.

Well, Election 2004 is done.  Now it's time to start the Great Democratic Reformation.

My goal is to convert every Democrat I know into a Conservative Southern Democrat, al la Zell Miller.  Failing reformation, we'll just have to destroy the Democratic party and let the Wacko Left rebuild somewhere else.

From now until November 2006, my prime target is the married male Democrat.  Reasoning: You convert the husband to a conservative-voting, educated elector, and you are pretty much guaranteed a 2-for-1 deal as the wife will likely be converted in the next two years by her husband.

After November 2006, they're all fair game.

I'm also going to drag my cousin, Josh, out of the mountains of the far-Left and drag him down to the mainstream to show him what it looks like.  Anyone who sees the mainstream media as "apologists for the Right" is so far left, the mainstream of America is beyond view.

As a New Englander, though, I wonder why Snowe and Chafee are considered vulnerable; is this the analysis of the DKos member? My sense is both of these politicians are quite popular in their respective states. Indeed, the bigger problem to me seems to be getting them to support the president's agenda (a desire or willingness to buck their home states' liberal political establishments and voters isn't very regularly seen from Northeastern Republicans). Chafee in particular strikes me as being awfully squishy; I'f I'm not mistaken there were news reports last month that mentioned his uncertainty as to which presidential candidate he was going to vote for.

One other comment: is Frist really rumored to be considering retirement? He's relatively young, isn't he? I'm guessing such talk is caused by the possibility of a leadership challenge. I know there's a lot of dissatisfaction in GOP circles about Frist's handling of the job; I wonder if such dissatisfaction may materialize in the form of a challenge.

IIRC, Frist is self term limited to the end of this term.  He may run for President, but he will likely leave the Senate either way.  Harold Ford will probably challenge for the Dems.

Snowe is probably safe in ME, but there will be Dem support for a strong challenge.  It will be similar to WI or WA this year for us.  A strong challenger who is hoping for a major slip-up.

Chafee may very well switch parties.  He has no great incentive to do so now, but he obviously doesn't feel at home in the Republican party.  We are lucky to have him and should remember that (as opposed to Specter).  He is also in a state that is as far to the left as South Dakota was to the right.  He can be upset in a race and he would be a shoe-in as a Democrat.  So we may lose that seat without Chafee losing.

From reading the Kos reactions to this list, it seems they will be gunning for Santorum with all they've got.  The are watching TN and even have hope in AL in the form of Mike Moore (the Dem AG).  They are debating the intelligence of trying to knock off moderate Republicans in ME and RI.  They seem to find Nelson D-NE and Dayton D-MN to be more vulnerable than others.  Just thought the views from the other side of the aisle would be appreciated.

"I think vital religion has always suffered when orthodoxy is more regarded than virtue. The scriptures assure me that at the last day we shall not be examined on what we thought but what we did."

"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. "

"They that will not be counseled, cannot be helped. If you do not hear reason she will rap you on the knuckles."

"There is no kind of dishonesty into which otherwise good people more easily and frequently fall than that of defrauding the government."

Ben Franklin.

Just looking at the list I don't see a five seat pickup during a mid-term election.  It's true that Bush has defied much political logic during his tenure.  But this would be truly incredible.

If WV, HI, MI, MN, and NE Senators retire (which is not likely), we will have a great chance.  Heck, Schwarzenegger could win an open seat in CA if Feinstein steps down.

Suffice it to say, I didn't see a +4 this time around and it happened.  It's far too early to predict, but overall there are more Red States and as the realignment continues to fruition, the senate should shift towards 60-65 Republicans.  It will be +1-3 each time around for the next decade with one or two setback years.

And honestly, the title was more a teaser than a prediction.

is little short of bizarre.

He's not going to have a primary opponent and he's got a good organization.

Great post!  

No doubt most the incumbents in both parties will have no trouble winning re-election.  They key to capitalizing on "red states" is fielding unbeatable candidates.  An incumbent holds a certain status that a challenger cannot usually match.

Robert Byrd will most likely retire.  (He also could die, which would put the GOP behind as his successor would be picked by a Democratic Governor.)  Even though Bush won this state, it's still a tough won for a Republican to win in.  They have 2 Democratic Senators and a new Democratic Governor, who incidentally won as W was taking the state.

Bill Nelson in Florida is safe UNLESS Jeb Bush decides he wants in.  Jeb could trounce him.  Katherine Harris, who wants it so bad she can taste it, doesn't have a chance.  She's old news.

If Daniel Akaka were to retire in Hawaii, Linda Lingle would represent a great chance at a GOP pickup.  Otherwise, it's a D seat.

Besides Nelson, the only D that I think is vulnerable is Mark Dayton.  He's so eccentric that he's confused most of his constituents.  It will take a high quality candidate (maybe the current Governor?) to knock him off however.

The northeaster GOP'ers are not vulnerable.  Period.

Rick Santorum is most likely to lose.  George Allen could face a similar fate if Warner jumps in the race.  We'll see who the D's run against Santorum...

Great post! The Republican Party's next goal should be mid-term elections where we can give President Bush a veto proof Senate, which will remove the barrier to his appointing Constitutional judges across the US to counterweight the liberal Clinton appointed.

He will probably turn out to be the most vulnerable. First, he has royally po'd Pennsylvania conservatives by opposing Toomey over Specter. Secondly, Hoeffel will run again and come out of Philadelphia with an extra 75,000 votes he didn't have against Philadelphia Arlen. This combination will be worth 300,000 to 375,000 combination of votes lost to Santorum. Without having studied other potential races too much, I'd say Santorum would be my number one target. P.S. If Specter screws up to further aggravate conservatives Santorum is out----and since he cannot stand up for conservative principles---he deserves it.

Bill Nelson did not get 77% of the vote for the 2000 Senate race in Florida.

He got 51%. McCollum got 46% and was a crappy candidate. (He flaked on gays and endorsed ENDA just months before the election.)

The results are posted here:

http://www.cbsnews.com/campaign2000results/state/state_fl.html

Maria Cantwell (WA Senator) should be added to a possible pickup list.  It's strange, Patty Murray is the more extreme of our two Washington Senators, (she made some really dumb comments about Osama Bin Ladin). You'd think Maria Cantwell would be safe since the GOP couldn't knock off Patty, but in fact Maria has a bad reputation up here in Washington, mainly due to her nickname: Maria "Can'tVoteVeryWell" A strong challanger in an off-election year might do her in. Jennifer Dunn would of course be the most dangerous, but even Nethercutt might be strong enough. Nethercutt's main problem was not that he didn't run well in King County, no Republican does. Nethercutt didn't get enough support in the mountain counties or the southwest counties. Clark and Pierce are the counties to watch for Republicans in state wide elections for Washington. You pretty much have to win big in Clark- by at least 10,000 votes, and make Pierce a squeeker to win as a Republican state-wide.

Snowe will win with even larger margins than she did six years ago, she won't be hampered by sharing a ticket with a conservative. Rep. Tom Allen is the only Dem who could mount a challenge, and he got just 59 in liberal So. Me., while Snowe got 69 statewide. Also, Mainers are begining to get used to have prominent Senators, after years of George Mitchell and Bill Cohen.

Chaffee isn't gonna switch, he would've jumped ship in '02 or with Jeffords in '01. Also, he was the key vote for Dole in the NRSC Chairman race. If he stays a Republican, he has a chance of becoming Chairman of Foreign Relations.

Allen is not vulnerable, M. Warner has made some pretty contriversial stances as governor, pushing for tax increases. In addition, GOPers may make some headway in the '05 races, which could cut M. Warner's coattails before they get legs.

Ensign is as snug as a frosh could be. He and Reid have developed a strong relationship (he refused to support a candidate to oppose Reid this year).

Talent will be in his first non-squeeker in six years. He barely lost to Holden for Gov. in '00 and beat a widow in '02. He's a moderate, and has newly elected Gov. Blunt and Lt. Gov. Kinder to back him up. Dems will probably put up Robin or Russ Carnahan, and we saw how well the Carnahan name did for Jean.

Santorum will win by a more comfortable margin that in '00. Dems won't have a big reason to turn out, not being a presidential battleground state, and Rendell being a safe reelect. Santorum is hugely popular in West PA, and the commonwealth likes to balance its delegation. Specter will line up amazing support from Philly for him.