Redstate

The latest Zogby poll has Kerry ahead by 6.6 points in Florida; this is outside the margin of error.

(1) I expect Kerry to enjoy an Edwards bounce for the rest of the week.

(2) Zogby is like Dick Morris: Good news for my opponents from his mouth is always a reason to rejoice.

Edwards bounce -- p'raps so, or perhaps people like him. I think there's probably a bit of a bounce effect here, but I don't think I can judge how much is real and how much is gonna go away. We'll see.

Zogby -- enh, whatever. If you're going to discount polls you don't like, I think your argument loses some force. I mean, when it comes right down to it, you're saying "I know the polls show this state as being on the edge but I think they're wrong becuase Betty Castor is running a centrist campaign." Polls that show Kerry leading within the margin of error still indicate that it's a battleground state.

S'a good post, and you raise interesting points re Betty Castor, I just think maybe you shoulda skipped the poll discussion altogether.

Anyhow, we'll find out in a few months.

I was too snide in dismissing Zogby. My understanding -- admittedly secondhand -- is that Zogby is always the outlier. When I checked the standing polls and averages when posting this, the average had Bush slightly behind (the margin of error), and the individuals had Bush slightly ahead (in the margin of error) or behind (in the margin of error). Zogby was the statistical deviation. In my limited experience of comparing Zogby to everyone else, that seems to be the general trend. Then again, I'm no Pat Ruffini, so take my analysis with a grain of salt.

I also add that I tossed in the poll analysis as semi-filler -- and that my general point stands: Bush is doing fairly well here, all things considered.

I personally suck at poll evaluation. Registered voters, likely voters... fuzzy science.  

I think Florida has also taken on unreasonable significance because of the way people (on both sides) feel about whatever happened in Florida in 2000. It's definitely true that the Democrats want to win it badly, and I suspect it's just as true that the Republicans want to prove that it's no fluke.

It's odd, but I suspect that if the winner of the fall election wins Florida, it'll help create a "mandate" to govern. (Mandates are generally mythical, but hey.)

SurveyUSA has Kerry up 47-44 in Florida.

Rasmussen has Kerry up 48-43 and is projecting the state to go to Kerry (see http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm).

I'm not entirely sure what polls it is you're looking at, but there's quite a few putting the state of Florida in the Kerry column.

JohnY: I started the post over the weekend, on a WordPerfect document, before the site was even fully functional. I know this is lame, but if memory serves, I went to RealClear Politics and did a quick scan, and checked that against my informal notes of the last few months.

In case this is not altogether clear, for the record, I am hardly a professional pollster; I was making informal evaluations, based purely on anecdotal evidence and my own running tab of polls, as well as the mild panic gripping most of the professional Democrats I know around here; and, for the last time, my sentence read:

Bush has stayed ahead of Kerry, or within the margin of error, in every poll I've seen here.

(Emphasis added.) For full specificity, this includes every poll I've seen over the last several months. It also implies that -- given that I do other things besides watch polls -- I might have missed a few a couple of times. We can argue back and forth on that all you like, but saying, Ha! Current poll A shows X! only says, Thomas, recent polls diverge slightly from the broad data set to which you were referring, not Thomas, your whole point is, like, totally wrong.

I note that it confuses me that I've gotten this response on what was (see above) mostly a throwaway point. Want to argue about Castor?

And how, exactly, does one call a State for a candidate four months before an election? Who's handing out precognition hoods, and how can I get one?

I'm a bit confused about Rasmussen's predictions myself. He apparantly thinks there's only 87 electoral votes up for grabs. I certainly would agree that all 538 aren't available, but I'd be hesitant to say that it's only 87.

I suppose the chart can have some value if you view it as an "if the election were held today" snapshot -- and really this applies to any poll -- but that's not quite how he seems to be presenting it on that page.

(forgot to include this above)

Sadly, though, I don't know nearly enough about Florida politics to intelligently discuss Castor, or any of the other in-state races.

Good point on the first. On the second, I've never let my complete ignorance of an issue stop me before; do people really do that?

Florida is by far the largest state that is not clearly siding with one party.  The analysis about the state trending conservative is a good harbinger, but I think we should continue to treat Florida as a swing state and lavish it with attention, GOTV, and money to make sure it continues to trend conservative.  If we could secure Florida like we have Texas, it would go a long way in countering the New York/California lock in big states.

Incidentally, the Economist this week had a great article on Florida as a swing state and it is has an awesome breakdown of the different regions and their trends.