Virginia's 8th District - more polling results

By jadedmara Posted in Comments (18) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Inside the Beltway on 10 August mentioned new polling data from Tel Opinion Research polls regarding Virginia's 8th District Congressional elections.

The bad news?  Moran leads Cheney by a 44%-29% margin.

The good news? 29% of voters remain "undecided"

The number of undecided voters, coupled with Jim Moran's woes (background and previous polling data compiled skillfully here by crl2027 ), bodes well for this previously strong Democratic district.

These poll results are surprising, given the large Democratic advantage in the 8th District.

Perhaps this will be another upset in the nature of the Rostenkowski ouster in Illinois.

So does anyone know the "cash on hand" numbers on this one?  If she needs some help, maybe we can provide it.

According to Opensecrets.org's report on the 8th District race, Cheney has $23,261 on hand, while Moran has $386,110.

The report is as of June 30, 2004.

 https://www.donationreport.com/init/controller/ProcessEntryCmd?key=C7
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She's not officially endorsed by RedState, but I think donations to her campaign can go a long way.  This is the best time to try to wrest control of VA-8.

On a side note, is there any data that show that historically Democrat districts that gain a (liked) Republican representative is more likely to move toward the center over time? (or vice versa?)  I posit that the reason I wasn't as partisan growing up was because of being surrounded by Southern Democrats (ex: Norm Sisisky) whom I liked and respected.

On a side note, is there any data that show that historically Democrat districts that gain a (liked) Republican representative is more likely to move toward the center over time?

I don't know. The 8th is, as you probably know, very Democratic. If Moran wins this fall, it will be because the voters are voting Democratic, not because they are voting for Moran.

I do recollect that Rostenkowski was kicked out by a Republican (I think in '94), and that the Republican was in turn kicked out two years later; that district liked Democrats, just not Rostenkowski.

But that doesn't mean we can't try to make it otherwise in VA-8.

Just thought you should know that your entry got picked up here.

Your donation link didn't work for me... FYI.

The URL accidentally has a space in it. Get rid of the space and you can donate. :-)

Here it is and it works

Thanks for the update, jadedmara, I hadn't read my latest campaign email yet.

Is anyone else getting tired of the Va.-in-play nonsense yet?  Though I have to admit it's discouraging to walk around Old Town and see the Kerry stickers on four out of five passers-by, thanks to the Kerry booths at all the little festivals.  I know the Bush campaign has to focus resources where it really helps, but is it that hard to send one person and a banner?  Need to remember not to leave the house without putting the W'04 bandana on the dog... and I suppose sign up to volunteer...

Yes by Walt

And that's the site where I learned it was futile (most of the time) to get into arguments with commenters. I'm a poster there, and I thought your catch would be a good item to post there, so I did so.

There's something about the Moran race that gets Democrats--especially Virginia Democrats--really riled up if you suggest that Moran isn't the most amazing congressman ever.

Sorry about the comments there.

When I first came to Virginia in 1989, I was amazed at the dirty races being run for governor and, the next year, representative in the 8th District.  Over the years, I would see Moran at church every other October, carrying his cancer-stricken daughter.  Moran is a crook and a liar, and runs as dirty a campaign as he needs to.  If this race is close at the end, we can expect mud and slime in large quantities.

Also, thanks to Rep Davis, the district is so gerrymandered that a dead Democrat could win in a walk.

Sign me "Disenfranchised in Alexandria"

Well, you know, Moran did singlehandedly build the Wilson Bridge, that highly efficient transportation link between Va. and Md. And, I really appreciate the artificially higher airfares - and inability to fly non-stop to most cities in the US - thanks to his crusade to protect the poor people forced to live in the million dollar + townhomes under National Airport's flight path.

But seriously, it would be nice to hear why these people think he's so great, instead of just harping on how he's unbeatable.  

to Cheney. How does the .02 help RedState..does it just show that we linked to the donation site from RedState? I'm a lil' slow..

Wasn't sure if the .02 only applied to people we actually endorsed, but did it out of habit anyway.

Endorsement or not. We're trying to direct giving and help Republican campaigns, so the more we can identify as coming from RedState readers, the better off we are.

Who says he's great?  He fights dirty, the Dems won't challenge him, he's an incumbent, and the 8th District has been gerrymandered to be populated with yellow-dog Democrats.  His "unbeatableness" is due to his situation, not his capabilities.

A significant majority of the 8th wouldn't vote for a Republican if George Washington was the nominee.

Add the fact that there are no known Republicans in the 8th, it costs a fortune to get ads on the radio and TV, and it means we're stuck with Moran until he retires or his brother replaces him.

 
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