Redstate

By Charles Fenwick Posted in Republicans — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

The race for the Republican nomination to Florida's U.S. Senate seat is the most competitive in memory. To understand how the race got this way, it is necessary to review the twists, turns, entries, and exits that have defined the race up to this point.

In recent years the Republican primary for U.S. Senate has been a non-event. A chosen candidate would face nothing more than nominal opposition. Not since a three man race in 1982 has the winner of the primary failed to receive 50%. This year is different.

In the 2004 race there are four major candidates and a like number of minor ones and none of them are clearly dominant. It is quite possible that the winner will not break 50%. To understand why there is no clear contender for the seat being abandoned by Bob Graham, it is useful to review the events that have led up to this point.

First, let us remember Bob Graham's last Senate race. In 1998 he faced State Senator Charlie Crist. While it seemed that the changing composition of the Florida electorate might give the Republican challanger a chance, Graham won handily with 63% of the vote. In the other big state-wide race of that year, Jeb Bush won election to governor with 55% of the vote. Crist would later become Attorney General of Florida. Nevertheless, the status quo reigned in the Senate seats with one Democrat and one Republican.

In 1999, the Republican Senator, Connie Mack, announced his retirement. U.S. Representative Bill McCollum immediately declared his intention to run for the seat. Lieutenant Governor Frank Brogan and Education Commissioner Tom Gallagher also had intentions to contend. Republican Party of Florida chairman Al Cardenas made it clear that he wanted no more than two candidates in the race. Brogan was the first to pass up the opportunity. Gallagher entered the race and remained in it until July, when he was (controversially) persuaded by Cardenas and Jeb Bush to run for Insurance Commissioner instead. This left McCollum to run against outgoing Insurance Commissioner Bill Nelson. From late '99 until the Fall of 2000 McCollum trailed Nelson in the polls by double digit margins. McCollum ended up losing to Nelson by five points. Republicans were left waiting until 2004 to get a shot at getting back into the Senate.

The first to start making plans for a Republican return to the Senate was Representative Mark Foley. He started laying the groundwork for a run in 2002 and formally entered the race in July of 2003. The moderate rolled over money from his House campaign to create a formidable money advantage.

Undaunted by this, others quickly joined the field. McCollum had been preparing his comeback for nearly as long as Foley had been planning his run and also entered the race in July. The month would also see Representative Dave Weldon and the State House Speaker Johnnie Byrd enter the race. Shortly thereafter, the first Republican State House Speaker of the modern era, Daniel Webster, joined the group. While the field was crowded, many viewed Foley as the favorite due to his money edge and how he stood out from the conservative candidates that had mostly similar views.

For that reason, it was a bombshell when Foley dropped out in September, citing the declining health of his parents as the reason for his exit. The move caught nearly everyone by surprise and left the race without a breakout favorite. It is supposed that at this time people started to try to encourage HUD Secretary Mel Martinez to enter the race. The Cuban-American refused the overtures. During this time, Judicial Watch founder Larry Klayman would join the crowd and Representative Weldon would leave it. The next big news maker was on the Democratic side as Bob Graham announced his future intentions.

On October 7 Graham ended his candidacy for President and one month later he announced his retirement from the Senate. This poured gas on the fire of speculation of who else would challenge for the nomination. Former New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith joined the crowded field. Representative and former Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris started making rumblings of entering the race and speculation over Mel Martinez renewed itself. A Mason-Dixon poll released in November showed Harris leading her rivals even though of them she was the worst performer against likely Democratic nominee Betty Castor. On December 6, Martinez announced his resignation from HUD, a move that many interpreted as a signal of his intention to run. This drama played out into January.

With Harris still sitting on the fence, Martinez entered the race on January 6. She promised to make a decision shortly and two weeks later she announced that she would not run for Senate "this time". While this would have seemed to have stabilized the field, there was some movement yet to come.

Incredibly, more people joined the group after Martinez' entry, although they would be offset with some exits. In February, businessman Doug Gallagher (brother of the afformentioned Tom Gallagher) entered the race. The first sentence of an article in the St Petersburg Times headlined "Gallagher in Senate Race - No not that Gallagher" read "So many candidates are running for the U.S. Senate seat now that Sen. Bob Graham is retiring, you might say everyone and his brother is running." Businesswoman Karen Saull announced her candidacy in April. Rounding out the field were the "never heard of" candidates, fighter pilot Sonya March and realtor William Kogut. Bob Smith left the race in April and Daniel Webster did likewise in May.

Of the thirteen candidates that have been in the race at some point, eight remain. Of those eight, four of them are above 5% in the polls. They are Johnnie Byrd, Doug Gallagher, Mel Martinez, and Bill McCollum. In my next article I will profile each of them and give details on how the race currently stands.

Update [2004-8-4 1:11:35 by Charles Fenwick]: Make that seven candidates remaining.
Karen Saull is quitting.