Election Day in Florida
By Charles Fenwick Posted in User Blogs — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Promoted from Diaries.
I cast my vote at about 10:30 this morning in a sleepy voting room at a Democratic precinct in a Democratic county. Locally, there is a wide open County Comissioner's race, but otherwise there isn't much reason for people here in Leon County (Tallahassee) to vote.
Besides the Senate race, there are a couple of races for political junkies to watch. Read on.
Update [2004-8-31 13:25:57 by Charles Fenwick]: No major voting problems noted (so far). Some expected turnout numbers have been published.
Update [2004-8-31 17:35:23 by Charles Fenwick]: Results coming in... Martinez leads w/ 10% of votes in
Update [2004-8-31 18:19:6 by Charles Fenwick]: Connie Mack IV Wins FL-14 primary.
Martinez lead widens as Miami-Dade results start to come in.
Update [2004-8-31 18:19:6 by Charles Fenwick]: AP calls the race for Betty Castor.
Update [2004-8-31 18:37:30 by Charles Fenwick]: Martinez' lead solidifies
Update [2004-8-31 18:55:35 by Charles Fenwick]: Miami Herald calls GOP Senate primary for Mel Martinez
Update [2004-8-31 19:36:59 by Charles Fenwick]: Lawyer Jan Schneider to face Katherine Harris for FL-13 seat.
Update [2004-8-31 22:47:26 by Charles Fenwick]: "Butterfly Ballot" Lapore ousted
- FL-14 is currently occupied by future Director of Central Intelligence Porter Goss. The top contendors to replace him are Connie Mack IV (son of the retired Senator) and State Representative Carole Green.
- FL-13 is currently occupied by Katherine Harris. The Democratic primary is a four-wide affair with banker
Christine Jennings and lawyer Jan Schneider as the standouts.
- Theresa "Butterfly Ballot" Lepore is up for reelection as Palm Beach County's Supervisor of Elections. The Palm Beach Post had a most reluctant endorsement of her. Her only opponent with his name printed on the ballot, Arthur Anderson, has received contributions from Charles Rangel and Nancy Pelosi.
Polls close at 7 EDT in most of the state, and at 8 EDT in the panhandle.
The Florida Divisions of Elections will have near live results. Having watched the results come in on that site in November 2000, I can testify that they have a sturdy server.
The
Florida Times-Union also has a results page
Counties to watch (in order of 2000 primary turnout).
- Miami-Dade - Mayor's election should ensure high turnout. If Martinez is really going to get the Cuban vote in a huge way, it will show here.
- Duval County - AKA Jacksonville. Navy town. Local paper (with perhaps the most conservative editorial board in the state) endorsed McCollum.
- Pinellas County - St Petersburg and Clearwater
- Orange County - Heart of the famed I-4 corridor. Home to both Martinez and McCollum.
- Lee County - Several precincts relocated due to Charley.
- Hillsborough County - Tampa. Western end of I-4 corridor. Significant Cuban population.
- Palm Beach County No butterfly ballot this time. The county has gone to touch-screen voting.
I'll post updates as appropriate.
Update [2004-8-31 13:25:57 by Charles Fenwick]: Took a quick scan of media websites around the state and it appears that the only voting problems that have happened are very minor ones.
Some expected turnout notes from key counties:
Duval - expecting 25-30%, although surrounding counties could have twice that as there are some very lively local races.
Hillsborough - expecting low 30s
Lee - expecting 32%
Miami-Dade - The Herald is reporting 'slow and calm' voting.
Orange - Orlando Sentinel says turnout 'seems light'
Update [2004-8-31 17:35:23 by Charles Fenwick]:
With 10% of the votes in, Martinez leads the Republican Senate primary by about 8% and Betty Castor is blowing out her opponents.
With almost all votes counted in Lee County, Republican turnout was about 40% and Martinez leads there by 8 points.
Orange County is showing just under 25% turnout.
With about 60% of the vote in, the Carole Green Connie Mack race is deadlocked.
Update [2004-8-31 17:35:23 by Charles Fenwick]:
Martinez leads by about 25,000 votes (7%). Nothing in from Miami-Dade and very scant results from Hillsborough. Orange County's turnout has improved to about 30% and Martinez has an 8,000 vote lead there.
With 88% of the vote in, Connie Mack IV leads Carole Green by 2,000 votes (3%)
Update [2004-8-31 18:19:6 by Charles Fenwick]:
With 96% of the vote in, Connie Mack leads Carole Green by about 2500 votes (3.3%). I do not see how Green can overcome that lead, so I declare Mack to be the winner.
It was very noticable when the Miami-Dade votes started to hit the state-wide numbers. With 14% of the votes in from there, Martinez has a 20-1 edge over McCollum.
Overall, Martinez leads by about 60,000 votes with
36% of the votes in.
Betty Castor continues her blowout as she is currently at 59%.
Update [2004-8-31 18:19:6 by Charles Fenwick]:
Castor wins Democratic primary in Florida
The only excuse for the polls being so far off in her margin of victory is that all of the undecided voters broke her way.
Update [2004-8-31 18:37:30 by Charles Fenwick]:
The semi-offical results from the Florida Supervisor's page are significantly behind the Miami Herald's numbers.
The Herald does not have a breakdown by county, but it shows 64% of the vote in and Martinez leading by almost 10%. Looking at the Supervisor of Elections' breakdown by county, it is hard to see how McCollum can win at this point. While McCollum has a lead in a few large counties, the size of the lead is tiny to some of the leads Martinez is holding.
Update [2004-8-31 18:55:35 by Charles Fenwick]:
With 70% of the vote in, the Miami Herald has declared Mel Martinez the winner of the GOP Senate primary.
Mel Martinez 380,450 42.2%
Bill McCollum 297,313 33.0%
Doug Gallagher 126,389 14.0%
Johnnie Byrd 54,264 6.0%
Karen Saull 15,506 1.7%
Sonya March 14,271 1.6%
Larry Klayman 10,710 1.2%
Billy Kogut 2,909 0.3%
Update [2004-8-31 19:36:59 by Charles Fenwick]: Jan Schneider defeated banker Christine Jennings by 9 points to earn the opportunity to challenge Katherine Harris for her U.S. House seat.
In Palm Beach, Theresa Lepore has a five point lead over her opponent with 44% of the vote in.
Results from the Democratic Senate primary (86% reporting):
Betty Castor 573,338 58.9%
Peter Deutsch 260,753 26.8%
Alex Penelas 99,533 10.2%
Bernard Klein 40,251 4.1%
Update [2004-8-31 22:47:26 by Charles Fenwick]:
The
Update [2004-8-31 22:47:26 by Charles Fenwick]:
Theresa Lepore, the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections who will be forever infamous for designing the butterfly ballot in 2000, appears to be defeated by Arthur Anderson. With 96% of the vote in, Anderson led by 3% (91,052 to 85,522)
Division of Elections county by county breakdown for the Senate race is nearly caught up, although I still see a few quirks. Note that just over half of Martinez' margin of victory came from Miami-Dade.
Will Senate results be announced before polls close in Central Time Zone?
Supervisors of elections start publishing updates on their websites almost immediately after their the polls close (~7:15 EDT).
No one should be announcing the race over/won until after 8:00 EDT. (Recall that the networks called the race before polls closed in the Panhandle in November of 2000, which is thought to have cost Bush a few thousand votes.)
Great updates! Can we get some vote numbers and percentages?
Are fighting it out for the Senate.
Funny thing is, they're neither very good (although Martinez came across well in his victory interviews).
Castor doesn't have much of a feel for grass roots basics, from what I've seen. Her campaign signs were illegible, her voter turnout methods were subpar, and she didn't even bother to fill out those cheesy candidate forms Catholic dioceses hand out. Those things are free advertising, and take some campaign flunky two minutes to complete.
Says something about her competition, doesn't it?
I wonder if McCollum is poised for a scorched earth campaign. He's just that stupid.
Thanks for the details.