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By Charles Fenwick Posted in Republicans — Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Yesterday, I detailed the events that have brought us to the point where there are four major candidates contending to be the Republican choice for U.S. Senate in Florida.

Today, I profile those candidates: Speaker of the Florida State House Johnnie Byrd, businessman Doug Gallagher, former U.S. Representative Bill McCollum, and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez.

Johnnie Byrd

Johnnie Byrd is the outgoing Speaker of Florida's House of Representatives. He moved to Plant City, Florida in 1986 from Alabama, where he had earned his law degree. After narrowly winning election to the State House in 1996, he quickly rose through the ranks and was elected Speaker in 2002. In July of 2003, he announced his entry into the Senate race.

Byrd's campaign has received some support from conservatives. The Club for Growth endorsed him and he shares an endorsement from the National Right to Life Committee. The endorsements are reflective of the pro-family and pro-business agenda he held when he served in the state house.

His tenure as speaker in the legislature made some enemies as some did not like his agressive style. There is a block of Republicans that have worked in Tallahasee that are "Anybody but Byrd" voters.

While he had an early edge in fundraising, the money flow has decreased since the end of the legislative session. He received only $250,000 in contributions in the previous quarter. His position in the polls also reflects this torpor as he has failed to break 10%. The only significant press attention his campaign garnered was from an Associated Press interivew where he attacked each of his opponents and questioned their conservativeness.

Doug Gallagher

Doug Gallagher bills himself as the non-lawyer, non-politician. He is the brother of Tom Gallagher, who has held three positions in the Governor's cabinent and is considered a contender for the Governor's office in 2006. Doug Gallagher , on the other hand has not held public office. Instead, he has run Gallagher Financial systems, a company he founded with $14,000 dollars in 1985, that has made him into a multi-millionaire. Gallagher entered the Senate race in February and is the only major vcandidate not from the famed I-4 corridor that runs from Tampa to Orlando.

Despite joining the field late, Gallagher has managed to get noticed. The million dollars of his own money certainly helped as did the Gallagher name (even though his brother does not support his campaign). The most notable thing that his money has paid for is a fifteen minute campaign movie entitled "America How Great Can We Make it!". The movie was produced by Fred Davis who made the "King Roy" film that portrayed Georgia Democratic governor Roy Barnes as a rat. Gallagher's movie has memorable (albeit admittedly wierd) scenes that assail lawyers and career politicians in the Senate (while it makes no mention of Mel Martinez and Bill McCollum, the implications are clear). It also mixes in biography and a few of his policy ideas. Those proposals include a flat tax and reforming Social Security. These issues seemed to have found some resonance with voters.

While the polls aren't in exact agreement with eachother with regards to his position, Gallagher seems to have pulled himself into a solid third place and is stalking second. While starting from near zero, he is currently in the mid-teens.

Bill McCollum

Bill McCollum is contending for a second chance at a Senate seat. After serving in the Navy from 1969 to 1972 and while serving in the Naval Reserves' Judge Advocate General Corps, McCollum was elected to the House of Representatives in 1980, where he had a lifetime American Conservative Union rating of 89. With nominal opposition (after Tom Gallagher was perssuaded to withdraw), he won the Republican primary for Senate in 2000 after Connie Mack announced his retirement. He faced former U.S. Representative Bill Nelson who was Florida's Insurance Comissioner as well. With McCollum's role as a manager in Clinton's impeachment still a recent memory, McCollum trailed in the polls for the whole of the campaign and lost by five points. He was among the first to throw his hat in the ring this time around.

While McCollum has some of the same supporters from his 2000 campaign. He's received endorsements from Connie Mack, Dick Armey and Cuban-American Representatives Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart. The National to Right for Life Committee, which endorsed him in 2000 did not endorse him this time because he changed his position on Federal funding for stem cell research.

McCollum's main issue in the campaign has been the War on Terror. A campaign handout highlights a mention in Richard Miniter's book Losing Bin Laden that praises McCollum's House task force on terrorism. His campaign ad makes mention of this in addition to his being on the House Intelligence Committee.

While he leads in the polls, McCollums advantage has been shrinking for the duration. Polls currently have him with about 30% of the vote, leading Mel Martinez by about five points. There is a definite feeling among Republicans that he had his chance in 2000 and that someone else deserves a chance, while his supporters reply that he is the only Republican candidate to have experience in a state-wide campaign, and that will be needed against the likely Democratic nominee Betty Castor who has won two state-wide races.

Mel Martinez

A member of the President's cabinent until December of 2003, Mel Martinez is the insider's favorite to win. Born in Cuba, Martinez was part of Operation Pedro Pan, a program that brought Cuban children to the United State. After getting his law degree from Florida State University, Martinez became a trial lawyer and rose to President of the Florida Academy of Trial Lawyers. In 1998 he ran for and won the position of County Chariman of Orange County (Orlando). Halfway through his term, he was selected by President Bush to become the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. In September it came out that prominent that White House staffers were urging him to enter the Senate race and that Martinez refused for the time being. A month after Bob Graham announced his retirement from the Senate, Martinez resigned from his position and joined the race in January.

Martinez has made much of his ties to the President. His television ad features clips from 2002 of the President praising him (The Gallagher campaign immediately filed an FEC complaint after the release of the ad and also complained to the Republican Party of Florida for the ad's implication that Bush endorses him.) His positions mostly mirror the President's. The week of the vote on the Federal Marriage Amendment, Martinez ran a radio ad urging Senators Graham and Nelson to support it.

Support has come from various places. He received personal endorsements from Senators George Allen and Rick Santorum. Former candidate and U.S. Representative Mark Foley has given Martinez his support as has Cuban-American representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. He is the other recipient of the National Right to Life Committe's approval. A number of President Bush's top tier of fundraisers, including former State House Speaker John Thrasher are behind him as well.

Opposition to Martinez has a common theme and that is his trial lawyer background. His Republican opponents have made frequent mention of it as have Democrats who relish the contradiction of attacks on John Edwards and support for Mel Martinez. The area of concern for Republicans his his opposition to tort reform. He is the only major candidate to not sign a pledge to support $250,000 cap on non-economic damages in medical liability cases. Also, the November ballot in Florida will have a referendum that would limit the money lawyers get in medical liability lawsuits, so the issue will be somewhat prominent during this election cycle.

Martinez has held second place for most of his time in the race. While he has risen against McCollum he continues to trail him by a few points.

To August 31 and beyond

Roughly 30% of likely voters are undecided. The race has been somehwat overshadowed by the Presidential campaign and voters living north of Interstate 4 (Tampa-Orlando-Daytona Beach) have seen next to nothing about the race. This will change next Tuesday when the major candidates have a televised debate that will be broadcast state-wide.

If Vegas were setting odds, Martinez would be a slight favorite despite McCollum's persistent lead. As mentioned earlier McCollum's 2000 defeat hovers over him and there are many not willing to give him a second chance (seeming to forget that Jeb Bush lost his first state-wide race as well, as did most members of his cabinent).

Turnout could be key. The tighter it is restricted to hard-core political activists, the more likely Martinez is to win as many in that group believe that Martinez is backed by the White House. But if the turnout is a bit broader, then a McCollum victory becomes more likely as does the prospect of a Gallagher upset. In rating a likely winner, remember that it will take a plurality to win as there is no runoff.

Money will not be a factor outright as Gallagher, McCollum, and Martinez have reasonably similar amounts of cash on hand. Of course that means judicious use of it will matter. Gallagher was the first to run television ads and financed the afformentioned movie that has played to small audiences around the state. McCollum started running his ad in mid-July and Martinez followed a week later.

There has been only one openly published poll rating the candidates in head-head matchups against Democrats, and that's the Mason-Dixon poll. The ones released in December and April showed McCollum and Martinez within the margin of error against their counterparts on the opposing side. The recently released July poll shows McCollum trailing Betty Castor by five points and Martinez tied with her (The poll had Gallagher mysteriously low, which is why he didn't merit a head-head question).

While there has been some speculation on effects that a particular nominee would have on the Presidential race, or vice versa, I do not believe that to be the case. Looking back over past elections, there has been little correlation between the Senate race and the other big races. Two of Bob Grahams' victories came in years that a Republican won the race for Governor (1986 and 1998) and his other victory came hen Florida voted for the first President Bush in 1992. The split in the 2000 race also falls under this category.
I admit however, that if there is ever a year in that the two run tightly together, this is probably it.

For that reason, as well the closeness between the Republican candidates' standing against eachother in the polls and their likely opponent, this is definitely a race to watch.