Optimism for Va-8?

By crl2027 Posted in Comments (17) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Promoted from Diaries.

For those unfamiliar with Va.'s 8th district (covering Fairfax, Alexandria, Arlington, Falls Church and a piece of Reston), our entrenched seven-term incumbent, former mayor of Alexandria Jim Moran, is a little-respected thug. He makes headlines for beating up, often literally, his opponents: including a priest, veterans, and a child.  While his behavior was tolerated for quite some time by the district's Democrats, he earned the wrath of a number of Democrats last year by blaming the Jewish community for the war in Iraq.  After those remarks, Moran was stripped of his leadership post by Minority Leader Pelosi, giving him even less influence on behalf of his district.

Read on.When more well-known Democrats declined to oppose him, a young DC lobbyist took on Moran in the primary and received over 40 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, Lisa Marie Cheney emerged from the crowd on the Republican side to win the GOP nomination.  Cheney, no relation to the vice president, is an expert on defense and a native of the 8th district.  (Moran grew up in Massachusetts.)

The 8th has been well gerrymandered to keep certain senior Va. Republicans safe in their seats, and has largely been written off by the GOP in recent elections.  This time, we have a credible candidate and the right timing.  If Cheney doesn't win this year, it's almost certain a strong Democrat will run next time and the seat will likely stay Democratic for the foreseeable future.

Cheney's campaign yesterday released the results of a poll showing the following:

* Jim Moran has only a 1:1 favorable to unfavorable identification level. Moran's net favorability rating in this district is 22% points less than that of Democratic Presidential nominee John Kerry.

* 69% of those that view him unfavorably are dissatisfied enough with him to vote Republican - with half of that group being Democrats and independents. Importantly, only 28% say they'd re-elect Moran regardless of who ran against him - a key indicator, putting him near the bottom for an incumbent Member of Congress.



There is a third party (green) candidate, so it can't be assumed that the anti-Moran vote will entirely go to Cheney.  But right now, money and name id appear to be her only obstacles.

Would be altogether too unfair to actual scum.

For more WashPost links concerning the scandal over Jim Moran's anti-semitic remarks, look here, here, here, here, and here.

For Post stories on Moran's Financial Scandals (including a very suspicious credit card payoff), look here, here, here, here, and here.

For Post articles on Moran's Personal/Domestic Scandals, look here, here, and here.

And for the best overall story expressing what kind of man Jim Moran truly is, look here.

Seems to be a true worthy -- both on the issues and in the tenor of her campaign website.  Count me in.  (BTW, your link is bad -- the ".com" is missing from the end of it.)

asdf by Steve

If you think Lisa Marie Cheney can win in the 8th district, even against somebody as unpopular as Moran, then you're absolutely crazy. She doesn't stand a chance.

You contribute so much here.

For example -- this comment I'm replying to?  I'm convinced.  You are clearly right.  Cheney is doomed.

asdf by Steve

I'm just tellin' it like it is. A moderate Republican could win. But not somebody like Cheney.

you could provide a little information about Cheney's views?  Is that why she can't win?  I'm just not familiar with her.  Thanks.

she's got some vague issue statements on her page (linked in the main post also) and there's two things that I think are really going to hurt her:

  1. She's pro-life

  2. She's stridently anti-tax and we just voted out a bunch of people on similar platforms for the state House of Delegates last fall. Northern Virginians are, by and large, more interested in balancing the budget (and keeping our services) than tax cuts.

To a lesser extent, her views on gun control (or lack thereof) may hurt her amongst certain parts of our district, and I don't see anything about the environment on her site; that's a pretty big issue locally.

Thanks for the information.  We should think about endorsing this campaign and get some fundraising going (maybe a net ad opportunity).

Swap VA-8 for TN-8: the R's get VA-8, the D's get TN-8.  Balance of power unchanged, and both parties are better off.

The Democrats currently hold both districts.

we just voted out a bunch of people on similar platforms for the state House of Delegates last fall

The Democrats picked up three seats last fall, only two of which were in Northern Virginia; the other Democratic pickups were on the Eastern Shore/Middle Peninsula and in Hampton Roads. See, as always, the formidable Prof. Larry Sabato.

I don't know why Democrats picked up those two seats, but I would not characterize the pickups as "a bunch."

Democratic Congressman Rodney Alexander from Louisiana just joined the GOP.

So, to my fellow Dems, Yes, by all means, you can have TN-8:)

She is a conservative.  She's pro-life because of her personal life story - she was adopted.  Whether the abortion-on-demand voters can accept her position is a valid concern.

I don't remember hearing anything about the environment lately, except the Potomac, but that's Md.'s domain.

From what I recall, the top issues in the district are transportation, transportation, and transportation.  And N.Va. voted down that ballot measure ('02?) to increase our taxes to pay for transportation (and I even voted for it!).  I think our state government is raising taxes enough, we could use an anti-tax representative in Congress...

Glad to see some of you sign up!  Her biggest challenge right now (aside from the $ thing) is getting her name out (and assuring people she's not the VP's daughter), so be sure to tell everyone you know in the district that we don't have to tolerate Jim Moran anymore!

All of the republicans running in Northern Virginia, for statewide and local offices, were running on anti-tax platforms.

In those areas that are part of VA-08 (as opposed to, say, Loudon County), they pretty much all lost. Delegate, county commissioner, city council; you name it.

...I shouldn't be surprised that you have a hard time reading the electorate here when you classify people as "abortion-on-demand."

 
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