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By Mark I Posted in User Blogs — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

The rumors, questions, and calls for withdrawal of the Nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court have begun.  While I doubt that this president will withdraw Miers' nomination, it is worth a look at the potential political cost of this move.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/pnoonan/?id=110007395

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/14/national/14confirm.html

http://www.confirmthem.com/?p=1586

Let's examine the costs associated with the three scenarios contemplated in the above links:  

Read on...

1. the nominee herself bows out;
   
   
2. the president asks the nominee to bow out;
   
   
3. Republican Senators let the president know that he doesn't have their support.

Situations one and two are essentially the same thing and carry the same political cost to the president.  If Miers' name is removed, even if she does it on her own, it will be presented as the president asking her to fall on the sword.  The press, which up to now has been beating the "she's unqualified" drums, will turn on a dime and portray the decision as cold-hearted and calculated.  "What about the president's supposed emphasis on loyalty?" they will ask.  The president will be derided in the media as capitulating to his extreme right wing.  It will become a Known Fact that the nomination was nothing but cronyism from the beginning, just like Michael Brown at FEMA, and will be used as evidence to bolster the Democrats' number one talking point, corruption.  The president's approval numbers will go down because he will lose some of those who view him as a decisive leader.  This will redound to a weaker than expected performance by Republicans in the midterm elections.  Although the president is not running, he is the top of the ticket.  

Situation three could happen publicly or privately.  If Republican Senators keep their objections discreet, then situations one or two will occur with the above mentioned results.  If senators come out publicly against the nominee, it will lead to a bitter standoff.  This is not a White House that has a history of taking public criticism well.  The president's first instinct will be to dig in as when he re-nominated judges who had been filibustered during his first term.  Only this time, he will be digging in against a Senate controlled by his own party.  Political fights between the parties energize each's political base.  Political infighting demoralizes your base and energizes the other guy's.  Democrats are already emboldened by what they see as a crack up of the conservative coalition.  An ugly public fight between the White House and the Republican led Senate can only serve to increase their energy and drive for the midterms.  Both the president and the Republican Senate will see their approval numbers go down.  Furthermore, while I don't think the president would choose a left of center nominee to replace Miers, I don't think it is a given that the replacement will be more conservative.

Faced with three potentially bad alternatives, what are conservatives to do?  The only option at this point is to support the nomination, however grudgingly.  This requires a leap of faith that many are unwilling to take given the history of Republican president's appointments to the Supreme Court.  But, I submit that taking this leap is better than any of the options described.  

Grudging support will be seen as a display of loyalty to a president who values loyalty over everything else.  Supporting the president now will give conservatives a greater say in the selection of the next nominee.  It will not make conservatives a doormat to the Republican establishment.  Rather, it will cement conservatives as team players who are deserving of respect.  Supporting this president now, when he most needs it, will ensure that conservatives' voices are heard throughout the next three years.  A lot can be accomplished for the conservative movement during that time.