Senate Outlook 2006: April 30th Update
By Adam C Posted in 2006 — Comments (17) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Two days after the 2004 Republican win, I stated that a filibuster-proof Senate was possible in 2006. Although unlikely, the possibility of Republicans picking up 5 seats is not out of the question.
I further asserted that we might see an exodus of incumbent Democrats since there is only a dim chance of re-acquiring majority status in the short to medium run. This hunch so far seems to be coming true as Senators Sarbanes (MD) and Jeffords (VT) have declared retirement, Senator Corzine (NJ) sees more value in running for Governor than staying in the Senate, and Senator Dayton (MN) decided another close race was not worth his time. The only Republican to signal his departure so far has been Senator Frist who is honoring a term limit pledge. Minority Leader Reid's comment that it would take a "miracle" to win back the Senate in 2006 reinforces the fact that Senators in the minority are probably stuck there for the near future merely voting "No" on legislation instead of pursuing their own agenda. It would not surprise me to see Senator Dodd look into running for Governor in CT or for other Senators to contemplate retirement from the Senate in 2006 or 2008. However, I do not believe Senators Byrd (WV) or Kennedy (MA) will retire unless they are physically unable to go through another campaign.
So there are 4 Democratic open seats and 1 Republican open seat. Of those, 1 is in a Republican state (TN +14), 1 is in a swing state (MN -3), and 3 are in Democratic states (NJ -7, MD -13, VT -20). Republicans will need strong candidates to overcome Democratic registration advantages. They have already tapped Mark Kennedy for MN who is an "A" list nominee. Lt. Gov. Steele in MD would turn a "blue states" into toss-up race. NJ and VT are wide open although Sanders (Socialist-VT) leads in VT since Governor Douglas choose to run for re-election.
Beyond the open seat possibility of 4 pick-ups, there are many more vulnerable Democratic incumbents in "red states" than vice versa. Senators Nelson (FL), Nelson (NE), Conrad (ND), and Byrd (WV) are in states that President Bush won by 5 or more points. Only Chafee (RI) and Snowe (ME) are in a similar position for Republicans. Byrd and Snowe are undefeatable due to popularity, leaving 3 vulnerable Democrats and 1 vulnerable Republican in an "opposite colored" state.
Finally, Senator Santorum (R-PA) is running poorly in polls and has barely scraped by in past races. Similarly, Senator Burns (R-MT) ran 7 points below the President in 2000 and can not coast to re-election. On the other side, Senator Stabenow (D-MI) won without a majority in 2000 and should be in for a tough race, alas no "A" list challengers have stepped up to run. Senator Cantwell (D-WA) could also have a tough race if a major candidate ran, especially Dino Rossi. Unfortunately, Mr. Rossi has passed on the opportunity in order to pursue the Governorship.
In summary, the landscape seems to be good for Republicans to pick up 1 to 3 seats in 2006. One can hope that the stars align (as they did in 2004) and Republicans get the 5 necessary to overcome the filibuster, but much would have to fall into place.
I would highly recommend that RedState readers and diarist from these states keep us up to date on their states and think about starting a blog following the race. It can become a center of grass roots activism in a state as Thune v. Daschle and South Dakota Politics did and continue to do. It also allows alternative media to compete with the (often liberal) major newspaper in some states.
Details on each pickup possibility below the fold:
In order of likely pickup, here are the major battles:
REPUBLICAN PICKUP POSSIBILITIES
TOP TIER
1. MN - Mark Kennedy is vying for an open seat in a rightward trending state. Governor Pawlenty is already talked about as Presidential material and Minnesotans choose Senator Coleman over ex-VP Mondale after Senator Wellstone's untimely death in 2002. Follow this race at Kennedy vs. Machine
2. NE - Senator Ben Nelson could switch parties and win comfortably. He is interested in Voluntary Retirement Accounts and avoiding a judicial filibuster, but his party continues to drag him to the left. If he stays a Democrat and votes against giving the President's nominees an up-or-down vote, he could easily be Daschled. Former Attorney General Stenberg (R) has already announced. Congressman Osborne could have the seat just by asking, but he just announced his candidacy for Governor. Former Governor and current Secretary of Agriculture Johanns could follow Senator Martinez as a cabinet official going home to run for Senator.
3. FL - A strong field for Republican candidates is emerging to challenge Senator Bill Nelson, the lone statewide elected Democrat in Florida. The latest polls show Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher already ahead of the incumbent while Katherine Harris and Toni Jennings lag a bit and Senator Nelson never breaks 50%. The field will narrow as some Republicans will choose to attempt to follow Governor Jeb Bush while others will choose to go for the Senate. Governor Bush has already declined a Senate run that he would surely win.
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SECOND TIER
4. ND - If Governor Hoeven (R) challenges Senator Conrad as the administration and other Republicans are hoping, this race moves up to the Top Tier and Mr. Hoeven starts with a slight edge. If the Governor passes, then Senator Conrad can breathe a sigh of relief. Follow this race at Take Back ND.
5. MD - If Lt. Governor Michael Steele (R) jumps in to the open race, he will be virtual unopposed in the primary while Democrats Cardin, Mfume, Van Hollen and probably others duke it out. Despite going for Kerry by 13 points, Maryland elected Republican Governor Erlich and Lt. Gov. Steele in 2002. There is little reason for Mr. Steele not to run and the administration is giving him chances to stand out. Early polling shows Mr. Steele in a dead heat with the leading Democrats in this "blue state." If Mr. Steele passes, this seat stays Democratic.
6. VT - If Lt. Governor Dubie runs against socialist Independent Bernie Sanders, this is a race that leans toward Sanders. Since Governor Douglas (R) has passed on running, the U.S. Senate could see its first avowed socialist in years caucusing with the Democrats.
7. MI - Freshman Senator Debbie Stabenow is the weakest Democratic incumbent running for re-election but she has been fortunate so far for two reasons: 1) Most "A" list candidates, including administration choice Candice Miller, have passed on the race, and 2) she is in a left-leaning state. Those factors have placed this race in the 2nd tier. Former Detroit City Councilor and mega-church pastor Reverend Butler has announced his candidacy. He could siphon off some votes from heavily Democratic Detroit and appeal to social conservatives simultaneously but his name recognition is very low. The other major possibility is Mrs. Abraham, the wife of Senator Abraham who lost to Ms. Stabenow in 2000. A strong campaign that includes blaming Governor Granholm (D) and the 2 Democratic Senators for Michigan's poor economy and high unemployment could mean a strong year for Michigan Republicans. But the opposite is just as likely with the incumbents staying put.
8. NJ - The field is too wide to predict and the 2005 Governor race makes it even more difficult to figure out what is going on in New Jersey. If Senator Corzine wins his Governor race, he will appoint a successor who will have a short term of incumbency. If Senator Corzine loses, he's stock will be down. Either way, New Jersey still leans left although less than in the past decade. Many New Jersey voters are fed up with the Democratic corruption at a state level. That could lead to a backlash but we are too far out to predict its effect on the 2006 race. Follow the New Jersey politics and the Governor race through TheMentor's diary here at RedState.
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THIRD TIER
9. WV - In the unlikely happening of a Byrd retirement, this right leaning state would see Congresswoman Capito (R) in the frontrunner position to succeed Senator Byrd. No retirement means no chance, although Ms. Capito could gain credibility by running above expectations against Mr. Byrd. If she got within 15 points it would be seen as a "scare" and within 10 would show that "fixture Senators" are not invincible. She could use it to leverage a run against Senator Rockefeller or to run for Governor in the future.
10. WA - Since Mr. Rossi seems intent on not running for Senate, Senator Cantwell is looking more secure in this left-leaning state. It would take a real contender to take out an incumbent in a "same color" state.
DEMOCRATIC PICKUP POSSIBILITIES
TOP TIER
1. PA - Senator Santorum is looking quite vulnerable in recent polling and Democrats have united behind pro-life Bob Casey, Jr. Mr. Santorum needs a strong campaign combined with some coattails from a Governor run by football icon Lynn Swann (R) to win this one. This race will be a referendum on the incumbent so Bob Casey's lackluster campaign skills (he lost in a primary to Gov. Rendell in 2002) are not going to be enough to save Santorum alone.
2. RI - Senator Chafee could still switch parties and ensure re-election, but doing so would give up a seat at the majority table. That is unlikely while Republicans are in power. Fortunately, Mr. Chafee's most formidable foe, pro-life Congressman Langevin, was torpedoed by liberal pro-choice special interest groups. Still Mr. Chafee will have to run in a tight race in a state that is far to the left of the nation. It would not surprise me to see him retire although there have been no signs that he intends to. There are many ways for Republicans to lose this seat and a primary fight wouldn't help. Senator Chafee is the party's best shot in this heavily liberal state.
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SECOND TIER
3. TN - As an open seat, Democrats will drool over the chance to pickup a Southern seat. There is general unity behind Harold Ford, Jr. (D) although some would like to see liberal ex-Senator, ex-VP Al Gore (D) return. He would lose heartily and end his career at a lower point than it already is. Mr. Ford, however, is a moderate Blue Dog Democrat who can make it a real race in Tennessee. Republicans have a plethora of candidates who must choose between the open Senate seat and taking on incumbent Democratic Governor Bredesen. Based on the 2004 election, the state leans further to the right (+14) than NJ does to the left (-7) and is comparable to MD (-13) in the other direction.
4. MT - Senator Burns won with a narrow 51% majority in 2000 and many liberals want to push the meme that the Mountain West is turning on Republicans. The newly elected Democratic Governor is hailed as a prototype for future Democratic gains in the region and activists want to make Mr. Burns the next victim. The Democratic State Auditor John Morrison has already announced his candidacy. In a Democratic landslide, Montana loses Senator Burns. Otherwise, he is in a decent position.
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THIRD TIER
5. ME - Senator Snowe is beloved in Maine and will not lose as long as she runs. If she decides not to, this seat is vulnerable and leans Democratic.
6. TX - Senator Hutchinson is reportedly eyeing the Governorship now held by Rick Perry (R). If she challenges him in a primary, the seat will most likely stay in Republican hands and may even attract Mr. Perry himself. Democrats will still need more than Reid's miracle to win in Texas.
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Senate Outlook 2006: April 30th Update 17 Comments (0 topical, 17 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
If he was running against Baucus, I would agree that this would be top tier and up there with Santorum's race. But since the only declared candidate right now is not a huge threat, it would take a bigger name or a poll showing him in trouble before I get too worried.
That being said, this is not MO or OH where Dems are deluding themselves thinking they have a chance (barring a huge shakeup). There is a legitimate chance for Dems to pick this seat up.
I am thinking it's going to be a 2 seat pickup, net, for Republicans, still short of 60 (and definitely short of 60 true conservatives).
I'm skeptical of Kennedy's chances here - they aren't bad, but not great either (in my opinion). His last race was rough and it scarred him a bit. Of course it all depends on who runs on the Democratic ticket.
I didn't follow his last race at all, how was it rough? I know Ms. Wetterling was a bit of a media darling do to her unfortunate tragedy. Kennedy seems solid, but I am an outside observer. Any nuggets of information would be much appreciated.
We just need 60 to NOT filibuster. Then 5-9 can vote against things they dislike. Notice that few if any Republicans are actually filibustering these judicial nominees. There may be some no votes, but that is after they come to the floor.
so I didn't follow the race so closely either, but my general impression was that, yes, as you say Wetterling is a media darling and has lots of moral credibility. Kennedy went negative and he didn't win by as large a margin as he should have. But specifics aside, Republicans in general sustained lossed in Minnesota in 2004 after doing well in 2000 and 2002. It remains to be seen whether that's the pendulum swinging back to the left or just a glitch.
In case it wasn't clear, I am in Minnesota, but not in that district.
This is relatively old (almost a month), but worth a look nonetheless:
Date March 31, 2005Our Tennessee polling data finds Harold Ford, Jr. with a commanding lead in a possible Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate nomination in 2006. The general election race is wide open with no candidate holding a lead outside the margin of sampling error. In short, Harold Ford, Jr. is the overwhelming choice of Tennessee Democrats to be their nominee, and Ford is in a competitive position with all potential Republican opponents.
Democratic Primary Vote PreferenceIf the Democratic primary was held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Harold Ford, Jr. and Rosalind Kurita, for whom would you vote?
Likely Voters
Harold Ford, Jr.............. 62%
Rosalind Kurita ............. 15
Undecided.................... 23
Republican Primary Vote PreferenceIf the Republican primary was held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Bob Corker, Ed Bryant, and Van Hilleary, for whom would you vote?
Likely Voters
Ed Bryant .................... 35%
Van Hilleary ................. 26
Bob Corker................... 15
Undecided.................... 24
General Election Vote PerformanceAll three possible general election match-ups are at or within the margin of sampling error. Harold Ford, Jr. leads Bob Corker 39% to 34%, right at the margin of sampling error. Ford garners 38% of the vote in match-ups with both Bryant (40%) and Hilleary (41%) - both within the margin of error.
The bottom line is that TN is a state that should remain red, but for the fact that neither Hilleary or Bryant are particularly strong statewide campaigners. We'll see how much Hilleary's less-than-impressive showing in the most recent TN gubernatorial race had to do with a referendum on outgoing RINO (extremely unpopular for trying to force an income tax) Don Sundquist - but my feeling is that on campaign skills and personality, Ford Jr. has Hilleary beat - whereas politics in TN lean much more toward Hilleary. It'll be interesting to see which prevails.
I know next to nothing about Bryant, and so I can't comment.
MachoNachos
Thanks for the polling numbers. Since those polls seem to be catching name ID more than anything else, I'd not rely on them too much. If Rs beat up on each other while Ford gets a free pass in the primaries, that could be a problem. In fact, it could be the reverse of MD.
However, something I didn't talk about in this article is the tendency for Senate races to become nationalized recently. In 2004, all open seats went the same way as the state did in the Presidential race (except CO). Many less talented campaigners won over better politicians because their partisan affiliation matched the state (see OK, FL, NC, and AK). This is probably due to the increase in partisanship that is taking place. This trend should help in TN, NE, FL, and ND while hurting in MD, VT, MI, and WA. MN is a swing.
So seeing numbers in the 34-41% range is good in my eyes. Many of those undecideds will probably break Republican. If Ford is starting around 38%, he has a long way to go to break 50. Nevertheless, after PA and RI this is definitely a seat we must worry about.
Keep us up to date.
Don't underestimate Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. He proves that not all pro-lifers are conservatives, and he's a much better campaigner than Chafee. Perhaps most importantly, we can be 100% certain that he won't switch parties after the election!
I'll be watching Laffey, but I severely doubt his chance at unseating Chafee in the primary. FWIW, I worry more about Chafee switching parites before the election than after it. If he goes through the trouble of running as an R in Rhode Island, I don't see him switching.
That Bunning-Mongiardo race was tragic for me personally.
As an aside, I dislike this move to party line Senators, in either direction. I like the Olympia Snowes and Ben Nelsons of the world.
I agree. I wish the Senate was less partisan, but as long as both sides push it that direction it will benefit Republicans (see my link in previous comment).
Sen. Nelson rather obviously supports PRAs and would prefer to vote on the President's nominees but he isn't allowed to by his leadership. Michael Tanner of CATO told me that several Democratic Congressmen (he didn't specify House or Senate) have talked with him about PRAs and are privately supportive but they have been threatened with loss of committee assignments and funding if they balk. I'm sure there is a similar dynamic with Republicans, but it seems that the moderates are given more room to dissent right now with Chafee, Snowe, Collins, McCain, and Specter often voting against the majority. That is probably a function of having a 5 seat majority and being able to afford to lose a couple votes here and there.
But yes it would be nice to have a Moynihan (who was interested in PRAs) or a Breaux on the Democratic side who could work with a Snowe or a McCain to come up with compromises sometimes.
That being said, I know Nelson was working on a compromise in the judicial battle. He wanted to offer something similar to waht Frist offered. But it seems that Nelson's ideas are unlikely to be accepted by any other Dems. I think that is unfortunate and will probably lead to some "red state" Senate losses for Dems (ND, FL, NE).
I think the majority party always has more room to play with vote attrition in the center. I don't think there is anything intinsic to the two parties that make that more or less likely. Nelson can do a lot things, but when the chips are down, as they are right now for the Democratic Party, there is greater value in solidarity.
If there were more moderate Republicans, enough to force the Republican leadership to tailor to their agenda more frequently, I think there would be more common cause with moderate Dems. In fact, I'm still a little hazy about why we haven't seen more of that as late. Perhaps the stakes are so high nobody can really move, besides a few entrenched Republican moderates who don't really need the national party.
In 2002, a contested Republican Gubernatorial primary in RI was won with less than 19,000 votes. Since then, GOP registration has dropped in the state but risen in Cranston. RI is no bastion of conservatism by any means, but I find it hard to believe that there are more Chafee Republicans than Laffey Republicans and conservative Republicans in the tiny RI GOP. The question is whether Chafee can win enough votes from partisans who hate him to stay afloat. Specter did, but not by much, and Laffey's name recognition in RI is a lot better than Toomey's in PA. With numbers so small, anything is possible.
Are any of them up for re-election in 06?
I fear that you're overestimating Conrad Burn's chance at holding his seat. He suffers mightily in the stature gap between himself and the other Montana senator, Max Baucus. Also Montana has had a fair amount of immigration from Washington and California over the last 20 years.
I see this one as a South Dakota style slugfest with each candidate using national money to spend upwards of $200 per vote.
My guess is Burns will hold on, but there's no room for error.