The Electorate Deconstructed
By Adam C Posted in Elections — Comments (12) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The Pew Research Study just published a massive and informative study about the general electorate. Based on a questionnaire, voters were placed into defined groupings based on their beliefs. There were 3 Republican-dominated groups: Enterprisers, Social Conservatives, and Pro-Govt. Conservatives. There were 3 Democratic-dominated groups: Liberals, Disadvantaged Dems, and Conservative Dems. There were 3 Independent-dominated groups: Upbeats, Disaffected, and Bystanders. Read the summary of the report for an in-depth description of each but be forewarned that Social Conservative is not the exact same as it is used with respect to the religious right.
Several interesting trends are captured by this study since it is conducted regularly (once every 5-7 years) and this is the fourth time it has been administered. Here are the highlights as I see them.
1. Liberals rising
From 1999 to 2005, Liberals increased their size from 10% of registered voters to 19%. This secular, anti-war, pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage wing of the party is also "Predominantly white (83%), most highly educated group (49% have a college degree or more), and youngest group after Bystanders. Least religious group in typology: 43% report they seldom or never attend religious services; nearly a quarter (22%) are seculars. More than one-third never married (36%). Largest group residing in urban areas (42%) and in the western half the country (34%). Wealthiest Democratic group (41% earn at least $75,000)." They are also out of touch with other Democrats on certain issues including gay marriage, immigration, and the environment. Also known as: Dean Democrats.
2 through 4 below...
2. Independent Groups are leaning Republican
The Bystanders are named such because they don’t participate in politics through voting or other means. The other two groups who self-report as mainly independent are Upbeats (56% I, 39% R, 5% D) and Disaffecteds (68%, 30%, 2%). The Upbeats are "Relatively young (26% are under 30) and well-educated, Upbeats are among the wealthiest typology groups (39% have household incomes of $75,000 or more). The highest proportion of Catholics (30%) and white mainline Protestants (28%) of all groups, although fewer than half (46%) attend church weekly. Mostly white (87%), suburban, and married, they are evenly split between men and women." They seem to be younger versions of the Enterprisers who are the most loyal Republican typology but are less socially conservative and less politically active than Enterprisers. Think exurbia.
Disaffecteds are "Less educated (70% have attended no college, compared with 49% nationwide) and predominantly male (57%). While a majority (60%) leans Republican, three-in-ten are strict independents, triple the national rate. Disaffecteds live in all parts of the country, though somewhat more are from rural and suburban areas than urban." Generally pessimistic and anti-immigrant, these swing voters are staunchly anti-government because they see it as wasteful and corrupt. The seem to be the opposite end of a spectrum from Upbeats, but both have trended more Republican and support the President by strong margins last November.
3. There is no party of the people; nor a party of the rich
Enterprisers, Upbeats, and Liberals are all well-off compared to other Americans. Disadvantaged Dems, Pro-Govt Conservatives, and Disaffecteds are the poorest typologies. Both parties are coalitions of a rich elite and a working class segment.
4. Future Republican Strategy: Conservative Dems
Many of the Conservative Dems and Disadvantaged Dems are minorities and especially black Americans (30% of Conservative Dems). The current outreach efforts by Republicans to win over black Americans are directed toward the Conservative Democrats. These historically Democratic groups are fiercely loyal to the Democratic party but express some views that are much closer to most Republicans including the 82% who agree with the statement: "Most people who want to get ahead can make it if they're willing to work hard" and the 72% who agree that "It is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good." Both are above the national average and more in line with Republican groups. This group went 65% for Kerry and 14% for the President. If the outreach efforts peal off 2-3% of the voting population (10-20% of Conservative Dems) they will tip the national makeup of the electorate significantly. Thus, seeing party switches of this nature is a good indicator that the plan is going well.
Finally, I would be remiss not to point out that von's diary on the survey has a plethora of commentary including the categorization of many RedStaters. I'm an Enterpriser according to the survey although I bet I’m on the borderline near Upbeat. I'd recommend the whole survey to anyone who is intently interested in understanding the electorate... or is just a news junkie like myself.
« Question and answer time: the Wes Clark thing. — Comments (50) | How Bush Won Ohio in 2004 — Comments (2) »
The Electorate Deconstructed 12 Comments (0 topical, 12 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Thanks for the catch. Funny how they are both similar in enough ways that I didn't notice.
You may at some point peel away some conservative Democrats-assuming of course there is no recession. But even in that event, the religious conservatives will drive some independents into our camp.
Bush won by 2.5% of the vote. We need to change the minds of only 1.25% to win next time. Conservatives are at high tide right now; this is their 1937 or 1965. This is as good as it gets. Ride the wave until it peeters out...and then we'll be back.
who you are going to win over. You already dominate the secular, liberal, pro-gay marriage groups in America.
This could be 1935. Or it could be the beginning of Generation GOP where the Republican control 52-65 Senate seat, a majority in the House, and 5 out the next 7 Presidential terms. Tough too tell. I could see it going both ways.
from Bill's first election?
playbook. Those "libruls" may just increase.
One or two more Schiavos--and the social conservatives just can't help themselves--and it will all be over toot-sweet.
Turned out to be an Enterpriser. After reading the makeup it's no great surprise.
One minor observation about the report.
The electorate percentages are the same or very close to the margins MSM uses to influence poll results.
Reverse the percentages of Republicans and Independents for more accurate results.
One reason MSM is always suprised at the election results. Republicans are on par with Democrats and MSM just can accept that.
This is the breakdown Pew used - sorry for the format.
Partisanship and the Political Typology
Independents who
Party Identification* "lean" included**
Republican Democrat Independent Rep./lean R. Dem./lean D.
% % % % %
Total 31 34 35=100 45 46
Republican Groups
Enterprisers 81 1 18=100 98 1
Social Conservatives 82 0 18=100 97 1
Pro-Gov't Conservatives 58 2 40=100 86 3
Middle Groups
Upbeats 39 5 56=100 73 14
Disaffecteds 30 2 68=100 60 10
Bystanders 22 22 56=100 39 38
Democratic Groups
Conservative Democrats 0 89 11=100 0 98
Disadvantaged Democrats 0 84 16=100 0 99
Liberals 1 59 40=100 2 92
One or two more "gay marriage" and "pledge is unconstitutional", "we love Michael Moore" and "Hollywood is the heart and soul of America" incidents and y'all are toast ...
The numbers supporting the initial decision to go into Iraq (as opposed to the number for staying now that we are there) are plummeting, the Bush Social Security plan has scared the middle class and working class, and Gas prices are infuriating the SUV crowd, but this is not enough to jeapardize the Republican momentum (the big "Mo"). But alas, the Federal Courts allowing a corporation to break its promises to long time workers regarding pensions (so much for property rights and the enforceability of contracts), vis-a-vis bankruptcy reform, which took away chapter 7 in favor of chapter 11, bankruptcies for the working man (while not getting ride of the Florida Homestead exception for the super wealthy), shows that the American population is like a large ship...it may take some time for them to turn around, but in the end, they do come around.
okay. I think you're right that it will have some impact. But limited and not directed at Republicans. In fact, moving the SS system away from the problems that United had (defined benefits) and toward a stable defined contribution setup would make SS much less likely to hit a bankruptcy like United did. If we follow the union-driven model of United, SS could end up where the private pension did.
I agree with the last comment. Unfortunately for libs, the big ship has already turned around and left them standing "in shock on the dock", as Jesse Jackson might say.
So Jesus was OK with partial-birth abortion, huh? Nice.
You pasted from Enterprisers instead of Liberal. I don't think it was intentionally, but you managed to post some of the negatives of Enterpriser to Liberal that definitely do not apply.
Liberals
Enterpriser