The Battle in Georgia

By Erick Posted in Comments (16) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

No diehard Republican in Georgia is cold on Ralph Reed. Some feel betrayed, some feel like Reed was never really an "Evangelical Conservative" and some feel like Reed led the party to bigger and better things and we should stick by him now.

The question I have is what do people outside the party really feel about Reed. Seriously. If you are reading this you are probably not a "typical" voter -- one who only pays attention in November. What do those folks know about Reed? My suspicion is that if Cagle polling shows these voters don't have a strong knowledge of Reed, Cagle will (and it'd be politically smart) keep driving the Reed negatives to make the case to primary voters that Reed would be unelectable in the general election.

Read on . . .

At the same time, Cagle has a delicate balancing act. In addition to driving Reed's negatives up, he must also build his positives. As the Democrats learned this past year, no one wants to vote against someone, they want to vote for someone. Cagle is helped by a national media that deeply dislikes Reed and will, itself, try to off Reed. Cagle must make sure to keep his hands as clean as possible. Politically history shows that driving up an opponent's negatives usually drives up your own negatives.

Reed on the other hand has a different task -- and to some degree a harder task. People who deeply hate (dislike if "hate" is too strong a word for you) someone, are energized to go vote against that person. Reed is going to have to find a field of Reed partisans -- people who really like Reed -- to go out and (1) beat the bushes for him and (2) persuade lukewarm primary voters that the negatives are unfair. The Reed game is a whole different ball game. The advantage Reed is suppose to have (and we'll know in a few weeks if it materializes) is money to drown out the anti-Reed message. And I'm betting it will take Reed more energy than Cagle to pull an undecided voter his way.

For political junkies, the Georgia Lieutenant Governor's race will be fun to watch. It has all the dynamics of political intrigue, personality, and message grid making you could hope for. One side will try to personalize the race and the other will try to keep it all issues and make sure the focus is not on the candidate. Whichever side finds the right balance between personality and issues will probably win.

At this juncture, I'll cap off the race with this:

Reed has an advantage in that he already has name identification and has (at least if you buy the rumors) a large bucket of cash. Reed's biggest disadvantage right now is also his name identification, but that could be offset by cash.

Cagle's biggest advantage, I think, is his lack of name identification. There are already connotations established for Ralph Reed that Casey Cagle does not have. That means, to me, that Cagle has a lot more give and take among the base. The die hards already know Reed and are mostly either for him or against him already (but, I think can still be persuaded either way). Cagle most likely will have more pull in the poll of undecided Georgia GOP primary voters. His disadvantage: right now it is the perception that this is Ralph Reed's race to lose (and the unconfirmed suspicion that Cagle will be outspent). It also does not help that the media, including your's truly, talks about this race in terms of Reed winning or losing. Sure, we have a choice, but this is the most interesting and compelling angle until Cagle decides to change it, but something tells me Cagle really doesn't want to change the angle yet.

We'll know the money issue in a couple of weeks. The rest of the race, well, we still have a year and things can change.

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The Battle in Georgia 16 Comments (0 topical, 16 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

You mean "Christian Coalition" Ralph Reed? The man who turned the conservative movement into Dean's "White Christian Party"?

Brrrt! I want Conservatives like Newt Gingrich, who stood for something besides his own self edification and the advancement of a narrow distorted view of conservatism. It's because of Reed that some Republicans have to downplay the role of faith in their politics.

to be a far-right theocratic nut, but now, through his questionable ethics and the whole Indian Casino scandel and connection with Abramoff, is seen as a money-grubbing hypocrite.  Look what happened to the Republican party in Illinois if you want to see the potential damage that Reed can do to the Republican party in Georgia.

Are you are journalist by trade? I ask because of the telltale use of the passive voice to make mud drop from the sky onto a conservative. This is something we see every day from our friends in the leftstream media.

So Reed "is perceived" this way. And he "is seen as" some other thing. No doubt he will soon have questions dogging him, and the questions will do this all by themselves. Then rising doubts will surround his candidacy, followed by increased scrutiny and growing discontent.

We had countless anchors intoning with troubled expressions how the "questions" about Dubya's supposed past drug use will simply "not go away ..."

the question in the post was what do people outside the party really feel about Reed. Seriously. If you are reading this you are probably not a "typical" voter -- one who only pays attention in November. What do those folks know about Reed?

As someone who is outside the party and outside of Georgia politics now (although I still follow it somewhat since I lived there for eight years and was active at the grassroots level when I was there) I thought I would provide what I would think someone who is not following it too closely but nevertheless has some interest in politics would perceive the race.  Hence the passive voice.

I would imagine that if you mentioned the name Ralph Reed to a mainstream political junkie (be it a Democrat, Independent, or someone who calls themselves a "moderate Republican"--maybe you would call them a RINO)  the response would be "Wasn't he the head of the Christian Coalition and wasn't he involved in that deal with Jack Abramoff where they were taking money from Indian tribes, simultaneously trying to shut down one casino while they were trying to get the other one expanded while making disparaging comments about their clients.  That seems kind of hypocritcal, especially for the former head of the Christian Coalition."

Whether it is true or not, he certainly has an image problem.  As for splitting the Republican party, there are some states in this country where the Republican Party has become its own worst enemy.  Illinois is the best example.  But look at Kansas too.  The Republicans lost the governorship because of infighting between the "moderates" and the "conservatives".

"Dubya's supposed past drug use" could never be proved because the "smoking gun" could never be produced.  Now whether this is because there was no smoking gun or because witnesses were just unwilling to rat out Dubya will probably never be known.

If there is a smoking gun in this case there is little doubt that Ralph Reed's "friends" are going to show a lot less loyalty than any theoretical friends of Bush who know where the "doobies are buried"(please don't accuse me of saying Bush used drugs, frankly I could care less, you brought it up, I am using it as a hypothetical).  Abramoff has shown that he has little regard for anyone but himself and has pretty much said that he is willing to turn on anyone if it will keep him out of jail.  And apparently he has kept records for just such an eventuality.

    "Dubya's supposed past drug use" could never be proved because the "smoking gun" could never be produced

Let's give them credit for learning that lesson. By 2004, it was "Questions continue to swirl about Bush's service in the Texas Air National Guard."

This time, they made sure they had a smoking gun. Bang.

I was making a comment noting the Press' propensity (especially when it comes to Republicans) of acting as if it's not taking an active part in keeping such "questions" alive ... I believe it's more than a little dishonest.

the Abramoff and Indian Casino Ripoff scandal is an ongoing story.  To imply that the press is "keeping it alive" when there is nothing there is absolutely ridiculous.

As for keeping stories alive, the rightwing press is still flogging Kerry's Form 180 more than a year after the Swift Boat Vets first started spreading their unsubstantiated claims.  And when exactly are you going to stop blaming Clinton for all the ills of the world and the death of Vince Foster?  

I have not mentioned, and neither am I interested in mentioning any of the strange tangential subjects and strawmen you're bringing up.

Capiche?

I mean, seriously ... Vince Foster?

tangential subjects (Dubya's drug use).  Ralph Reed has been implicated in the Abramoff Indian Casino Scandal in which Jack Abramoff lobbied for and against Indian Casinos at the same time.  Ralph Reed's involvement apparently had little to do with his moral concerns about gambling but about his lobbying fees.  

It is an ongoing story and just because it has the potential to make Ralph Reed look bad does not automatically mean that it is a nonstory or is being "kept alive" by the press.  Sometimes where there is smoke there is fire.

From what I understand, at the very least, Ralph Reed is big hypocrite a la Bill Bennett, professing to be a man of impeccable moral fiber while lobbying on behalf of gambling interests.  Or he may be nothing more than a common con man, having bilked his clients out of their fees by pretending to lobby for them while he was in fact, lobbying for a competing casino.

    So Reed "is perceived" this way. And he "is seen as" some other thing. No doubt he will soon have questions dogging him, and the questions will do this all by themselves. Then rising doubts will surround his candidacy, followed by increased scrutiny and growing discontent. - Nick Danger

    This reminds me of the 2000 campaign. We had countless anchors intoning with troubled expressions about how the "questions" about Dubya's supposed past drug use will simply "not go away ..." - MartinAKnight

In case you didn't notice, Nick is complaining about the use of the passive voice by the Press ... as if they are not also among the questioners. I gave an example of what I saw as an instance of this same thing.

Now, you may want to discuss Vince Foster on the mistaken impression that I am a believer in silly conspiracy theories or because you think somehow it is relevant to this thread.

But I don't.

Okay?

Thanks.

So Reed is obviously laying the groundwork to run for Sonny's job in 2010 and then maybe a Presidential run in 2012. Dont laugh. If he wins and is a sitting Gov in 2012, why wouldnt he run for national office? He's got national connections most Senators would kill for. The only problem with Reed is there is a significant minority [though small in number] even within the GOP who absolutely hate his guts. Hes smart, good looking, and really slick; maybe too slick. Who knows.

But he is too short to run for president.  :)



figure to many.  His book Active Faith inspired me in many ways.  It is because of evangelical Christianity that I am an active Republican.  Otherwise, I would not be interested in politics.  I fully would support Reed.  He is much more Republican to me than Gingrich (who I used to like) or others like that who seem to be more economically conservative.  Economics are important but what brings me to the polls, and many like me, is social issues that Reed addresses so aggressively.  I wish i was in GA to vote for him.



it is because of folks like Reed that I feel confident IN MY faith in politics.  Before Reed came along (and others like him) there was no place for it.  

And I dont know what you mean by "narrow brand of conservatism".  Seems to me it is you who wants to keep it narrow, by the tone of your post.

 
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