Illegal Aliens Affect The Presidental Election

By KARL DEWEY Posted in Comments (12) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Remaking the Political Landscape

The Impact of Illegal and Legal Immigration

on Congressional Apportionment

Illegal Immigrants Distort Congressional Representation and Federal Programs


Most Americans know that their representation in the U.S. House of Representatives is based on proportional representation as determined by the decennial Census. And, many Americans are aware that the Census takers try to count everybody residing in the country. But, most Americans have no idea that illegal immigrants and other foreigners who are not permanent residents are part of the calculation for the distribution of Congressional representatives. If the population of illegal aliens and other long-term foreign residents were inconsequential, this would not be an important issue. However, with an estimated 7 million illegal aliens in 2000, and many millions more today, this is a valid major concern. ]

The Role of Illegal Aliens in Influencing the Electoral College Vote

By including illegal aliens in the Census data used to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, areas with large numbers of illegal residents gain additional representatives.1 See our Issue Brief "Illegal Immigrants Distort Congressional Representation and Federal Programs." Because the number of votes of each state in the Electoral College is determined by the number of national representatives, illegal aliens are also given a role in influencing the outcome of the selection process for the presidency.2

According to a study by the Center for Immigration Studies, there were four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives that were shifted among the states on the basis of the number of illegal aliens in the 2000 Census.3 States that are currently expected to cast their Electoral College votes for President Bush in the 2004 election lost three seats in the post-2000 Census reapportionment (Ind., Miss., and Mont.) and gained one (N.C.) for a net loss of two House seats and, therefore, two Electoral College votes. California, which gained three House seats, and, therefore, three Electoral College votes as a result of illegal aliens counted in the 2000 Census, is expected to cast its votes for Sen. Kerry. But, Michigan, which also is expected to support Kerry, lost one House seat and, therefore, one Electoral College vote. So, by including the illegal alien population in reapportioning the nation's nationally elected representatives, Sen. Kerry may have a net gain of two votes in the Electoral College.4

If the outcome of the 2004 presidential election is very close, the four vote swing--two won, two lost--in Electoral College voting caused by including illegal aliens in the apportionment of congressional seats could be enough to determine the outcome.


A very interesting observation. But there are

other ways the illegal sunami is affecting

politics. National Review magazine has had

several articles discussing the fact that Bush

is totally out of step with public opinion on

this issue and his unwillingness to rectify the

out-of-control border situation is not only a

social and economic disaster but a threat to

national security. The vast majority of Americans

favor secure borders. Right now we are confronted

with bankrupt school districts, insolvent

hospitals that are curtailing patient services,

and enormous taxes for prison incarceration

and social welfare costs. Many studies have

concluded that the costs of this foreign

invasion far surpass the benefits of their

labor - which incidentally suppresses wages

for those who "won't do this kind of work". Then,

too, we are learning daily that many are part

of the drug cartel and are bringing various

diseases with them. It amazes many that George

Bush, who is so adamant about national security

and securing the Iraq border, will not defend

our own. Dick Morris was right when he said

if some terrorists waltz across the border

and create terrorist havoc Bush should and will

be impeached. It's a clear failure to defend

America from foreign invasion. I suppose if

that happens he'll go into hiding and say he

only thought they were coming to door nobody

else would do. The Democrats are even worse.

As someone noted the Republicans like the cheap

labor and the Democrats want the votes. It's

prime time for a third party candidate to take

advantage of the fact that fully 85% of the

citizenry oppose illegal immigration!

Living in California, I've thought about this a lot.

The answer should be to revive the three-fifths clause, and use it to at least reduce the effects of illegals on the representation of states like mine.

Unfortunately it'll never happen, because the Democrats will call names, make absurd charged comparisons, and with the help of the press, win the argument by yelling and pointing long enough.

why any non-citizens should be counted for apportionment purposes. The Founding Fathers after all exempted the then non-citizen Native Americans. Of course we would need a constititional amendment now to change the apportionment rules.

IIRC, you are not required to prove citizenship when filing out census forms-- which are mailed to every valid residential address in the US.  

There is no box to check for "illegal immigrant", so  although there could be illegals filing census forms, there is no way to accurately determine their representation among census info as a whole vs. legal immigrants.

Deport all illegal aliens and we won't have to worry about them being counted in the census.

how anyone could "prove" citizenship on a census form. You fill it out and you send it in. There's no way the data on can be verified, and it would cost $$$ to do so. In fact, unless you have a passport, it is almost impossible to prove you are a US citizen beyond a reasonable doubt (birth certificates and such are easy to fake after all), and the states are in a qunadary right now because of RealID Act will require them to verify citizenship and they have no practical way to do this. (And as a citizen myself I find the notion I should have to prove my citizenship, except at Customs,  quite offensive) But anyway, the government does maintain data on legal immigrants at least: we know who has a green card and where they reside. We could, in principle, subtract those numbers out census totals. With illegals; that's going to be a lot harder though.

So it's possible that illegals could be filing census forms and thus influencing electoral vote assignment-- and really, there's nothing we could do about it.

But really, it seems ridiculous to think that many people who don't even speak English would spend time filling out a form that, in their minds, could potentially get them sent back to Mexico.

No more, no more, no more.   I for one am sick of all the illegals in my state.  We have a very liberal governor in Arizona who just vetoed many bills on restricting illegal aliens (including no drivers licenses and public benefits).  What reason would anyone have for opposing showing ID to vote?  Perhaps it is so you can perpetrate voter fraud to you benefit.  Give me a break, you have to show ID to cash a check but not to vote.  The democrats have lost there minds and so have most of the republicans.  Bush won't do anything about the borders and neither will Congress.  If terrorists come across the border and launch a successful attack those in power shouldn't be impeached they should be found guilty of treason and executed.

There was a group that ran some numbers from the last Census and found that twice as many people said they had came here from Mexico as was issue Visas.

If they were not illegal then how did they get here?

Here are a few articles for your reading.

HOW MANY?

No one can say for certain how many illegal immigrants live in the United States. The INS put the number at 7 million in 2000, with an annual increase of 350,000. The U.S. Census Bureau put the number at between 7.7 million and 8.8 million in 2000, and the Center for Immigration Studies calculates an annual increase of 500,000. Based on those estimates, the number now could be 8 million to 10 million. Other estimates put the number at 11 million or more.

TOP BIRTH COUNTRIES

Legal immigrants

India...........6.7%

China...........5.8%

Philippines.....4.8%

Vietnam.........3.2%

Other..........58.9%

Mexico.........20.6%

Source: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service

Illegal immigrants

Mexico......... 68.7%

El Salvador..... 2.7%

Guatemala....... 2.1%

Colombia........ 2.0%

Honduras*....... 2.0%

Other..........22.5.%

*Includes 105,000 Hondurans granted temporary protected status in December 1998. Source: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services


Population of illegal immigrants doubled in 1990s

By Genaro C. Aramas / Associated Press

   WASHINGTON -- The number of illegal immigrants in the United States more than doubled during the 1990s, Census Bureau estimates show.

   Nearly half of these immigrants arrived from Mexico, lured by a then-strong economy and plentiful jobs.

   But since the 2000 census was taken, much has changed for many of the roughly 8.7 million undocumented immigrants living in America. Some lost their jobs and returned to their native country.

   And after the Sept. 11 attacks, the focus has shifted even more to closing immigration loopholes and tightening border patrols amid greater suspicion of foreigners.

   For instance, the Justice Department has targeted for deportation thousands of men known to be from countries where Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network operates.

   The men, thought to be in the country illegally, have ignored orders to leave, Justice officials have said. Many, but not all, of those targeted are of Middle Eastern descent.

   Preliminary estimates from the 2000 census show that about 115,000 people from Middle Eastern countries live in the United States illegally, or in "quasi-legal" status -- refugees or people seeking political asylum.

   While the vast majority of Middle Eastern immigrants are not terrorists, "the fact that tens of thousands of people from that region and millions more from the rest of the world can settle in the United States illegally means that terrorists who wish to (enter the United states) face few obstacles," said Steven Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies.

   "We can't protect ourselves from terrorism without dealing with illegal immigration," Camarota said Tuesday. His group's mission statement says that it seeks "fewer immigrants but a warmer welcome for those admitted."

There are Government employees going door-to-door asking them to sign up for various programs.  The more they sign up the more solid is the Government worker's job.  The more it cost you in taxes.

Many could have become legal citizens-- they have come here from Mexico but would not require a current visa.  I would be interested to know the methodology by which the census estimated the number of illegals in the country-- since you rghtly pointed out that there is no way to determine citizenship from the census form.

I think you'd be suprised to know that I agree with most moderate conservatives concerning illegal immigration. I think a program similar to McCain's is essential-- we need to provide incentives and ease requirements for legal immigration while at the same time really tighten the screws as far as preventing the arrival of illegals and deporting them if caught.

Enforce the law and prosecute the employer.

Advertise the prosecutions.

Drop the 14-day/100-mile rules and do sweeps - advertise the captures and deportation.

Do not turn them loose to return on their own recognizant for a deportation hearing - would you return?

To be quite honest I'm not very familiar with the exact details of the plan, but I am a fan of using both carrot (easier legal immigration) and stick (harsh penalties for border jumpers) in dealing with the immigration problems.  The exact rewards and penalties are negotiable IMO, but I think you're right that the penalties must have some stronger teeth in order to be effective.

 
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