Sen - FL: Harris should drop out.
By Adam C2 Posted in 2006 — Comments (19) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Katherine Harris has every right to stay in the FL Senate race, but to do so would be foolish.
Another poll shows her losing 50%-38% to a candidate who is vulnerable this cycle (38% want to re-elect, 37% want a new Senator). She already has equal or greater name recognition at this point, but she is too divisive in this swing state. "...voters disapprove 43 - 33 percent of the role Harris played in the 2000 Presidential vote count and 37 percent say they are less likely to vote for her because of it."
Mr. Rove and the Bush family tried to stop her from running and it seems she signaled that she would hold off on announcing her candidacy. She then surprised everyone by declaring early which upset many insiders. GOV Bush has more or less come out publicly against her which has slowed her fundraising ability. The insiders are right about the problem: she is very strong in the primary and very weak in the general election.
Mr. Rove and GOV Bush are now trying to recruit FL House Speaker Allan Bense to run. The same polls show Mr. Bense behind Nelson (55%-26%) mainly due to zero name recognition outside the panhandle. The Bense supporters are banking on the impressive Bush machine in FL to turn out the money and the vote against Nelson. That will take a lot of effort, but it could work. Harris on the other hand cannot. Now that it is clear that the entire establishment is against her, she should drop out of the race for the good of her party and continue her work as a Congresswoman.
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harris in the press
Sun Herald 6/28/2005
Fast-forward to 2004, when 16 employees of a company called MZM Inc. sent checks for $2,000 to her (Harris) campaign -- 14 of them on the same day. The $32,000 was in addition to $10,000 the company's political action committee gave to her campaign. Last week, three employees told the San Diego Union-Tribune they were forced by the company's chief executive to donate to the firm's political action committee....MZM is at the center of a federal probe involving Harris' colleague, Randy "Duke" Cunningham,
St. Petersburg Times 6/26/2005
MZM Inc., a Washington company that does millions of dollars of work for the federal government, has been in the news for its role in a deal with Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, R-Calif. Cunningham sold a house to MZM founder Mitchell Wade, who lost money on it after putting it back on the market almost immediately.
Harris, R-Sarasota, got $10,000 from the MZM political action committee, and another $32,000 from MZM employees, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks campaign money.
The $32,000 came in 16 checks for $2,000 each - 14 of them written on one day, March 23, 2004.
The Bush brothers are giving her the political kiss of death, just as the mobsters in the film trilogy often discussed the need to kill former allies because of changing alliances.
Harris was essential in President Bush winning the state in '04. Don't remember if she held her position in '00, but if so, the President owes her two big ones.
At this stage in the game, she wants to be Senator and the grand politics of the nation don't enter into it. And honestly, I can't blame her. It's time to give the devil her due. While her odds at winning the Senate seat should she remain in the race hardly look to be a sure thing, her odds of winning the seat should she drop out are zero. And I don't see Bush holding any other appealing positions open for her. The Republicans can't run two candidates for the seat, so they'll either have to pay up to Harris or lose the seat for sure. Bad position for the Reps to be in, but a somewhat shrewd move by Katherine.
First, she was Sec of State in 2000. The Bush family helped her secure a Congressional seat since then. She is now looking at running in a race she can't win and ending up unemployed. She could keep her Congressional seat and wait for an opening at the state level in the future. She has only been in Congress for 4 years (I believe). I think she underestimated how much the establishment opposed her and by catching them by surprise she lost any chance of winning them over.
She was elected to Secretary of State in 1998 and served until she was elected to the U.S. House in 2002.
Her announcment of her pending announcement may have been some weird way of seeing how the establishment was going to react (She said she would not formally enter the race until July. However, her announcement didn't really have much tell-take hedging language, so maybe it wasn't).
Harris did nothing illegal or unethical in the yr2000 Pres election. The Dems hate her because she was firm in doing her job. They will never love her; why the Bushies dislike her is yet to be revealed.
She is perfectly correct to explore her opportunities. Those who disagree are free to do so. peterNaCl
She is perfectly free to "explore her opportunities." And I hope after exploring them, she realizes that she can stay a Congresswoman a bit longer instead of running a campaign that shows no sign of being able to win while risking a chance at a Republican pickup.
It is not the Dems I am concerned about; it is the independents who also don't seem to like her.
And I think it is apparent why the Bushs oppose her run (which is different than "disliking" her). They don't think she can win and she surprised them with her announcement without letting them know.
Re: She is perfectly correct to explore her opportunities. Those who disagree are free to do so.
Isn't this what the primary election process is for? Letting party voters determine who is their best nominee? Let the lady make her run and if a majority of the Florida GOP thinks she makse the best candidate, then so be it. If not, they can pick someone else. Those who are not Florida GOP voters should butt out.
Article on Harris
Harris backers are irritated that State House Speaker Allan Bense met with White House chief of staff Karl Rove and NRSC Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) this week to discuss challenging Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) next year...
..People loyal to Harris claim her move not to run last year demonstrated her loyalty, noting that the president has already won his reelection bid. Some in the White House were concerned that a Harris run in 2004 would have hurt Bush's chances in the Sunshine State.
Sources said Harris has hired several political heavyweights, including Edward Rollins, who has served in three Republican presidential administrations and was President Ronald Reagan's campaign director for his 1984 re-election campaign. Rollins also served as campaign manager for Ross Perot's presidential bid in 1992.
The 2000 presidential election proved nothing. Seriously, all she did was try to keep laws upheld during the whole fiasco. Voters shouldn't be turned off by this kind of thing, but....you never know. Those life-long Democratic Jews in Palm Beach might still be mad that Pat Buchanan isn't running and might not throw their support behind Harris. :)
If I lived in Florida, Harris would be my woman for the Senate.
"Voters shouldn't be turned off by this kind of thing"
The difference between what should be and what is. Very important to winning elections. My goal is to win, I (and a lot of others in more meaningful positions) don't think she can.
Looking at this race from afar in Georgia, it seems to me that Nelson hasn't done anything on the political radar to make him unattractive to most of the Florida masses.
He's going to be tough to defeat because he's so bland.
He'll have lots of "working for the people" ads, an occasional astronaut picture and probably win by 2% unless a really dynamic conservative candidate comes along really quickly.
Former Gov. Mike Johanns could beat him. Gov. Dave Heineman might have a chance if he decided to go for it, being that Rep. Tom Osborne is running for governor.
Don Stenberg might be able to pull it off too if there was sufficient discontent with Nelson. But, I've actually heard that many people even fairly high up in the Democrat Party think that Nelson would more likely switch parties than lose the election.
Who knows. I think Stenberg can beat him by a hair, and either Johanns or Heineman could beat him by a little more. Especially Johanns.
Personally, I think that Katharine Harris is NOT the best choice to run for the Senate seat. The GOP has not done as well with women and nor have the Democrats, for that matter (think Susan Castor). This is such an excellent pick-up opportunity that I'm honestly amazed we've failed to come up with a great candidate thus far.
That said, I would support her should she be the nominee, but I think we can do better.
The argument that the Bushes or Republicans "owe" Harris for her loyalty in the 2000 certification process is absurd. First, she was just doing her job! So unless you're arguing that she helped Bush "steal" the election, I dont see how an elected official is owed for doing what she was being paid to do at the time. Namely, certify the damn winner who got more votes. Once you get past this, the entire chain is broken. Because then this means she didnt do the Bushes another "favor" by not running in 2004. WHy? Because the only reason she had the political mojo to run in 2004 was because the Bushes gave her a political base and a Congressional District for all her hard work. Harris has been rewarded. MOreoever, she did herself a favor because the Bushes would have crushed her if she tried to run against Mel Martinez. Just look at the carcass that used to be Bill McCollum lying on the side of the road for evidence of what happens to rebels who get in the way of the Bush machine. Harris popular with the base only because she has been so closely aligned with the Bush machine in FL. And isnt this what this entire Harris controversy is about?? Democrats attack her for being a Bush tool. Republicans glorify her for being a loyal Republican. But the truth is in between: In 2000, she was a loyal Republican, but she HAD NO OTHER CHOICE. What could she have done other than remain steadfast behind the Bushes? Her political career would have been over if she had come off as disloyal and wavering (for reference: see Penelas, Alex formerly a rising star in the FL Dem Party who is currently in the political wilderness for his less than enthusiastic support for Gore). Harris behaved as she did in 2000 for her own selfish motives. Granted these motives coincided with Republican interests, but to say that somehow the Bushes are now indebted to her and should piss away a FL Senate seat just because she did what any partisan Republican would have done in her position is absurd. If Harris thinks she can win, she should run. But any objective observer with 1/4 brain who has read the polls knows Nelson would have be arrested for something perverse like child molestation for Harris to beat him. Seriously. I think if Nelson was arrested for a DUI or even if he died (ala Carnahan), he'd still win. Harris is too hated, which isnt the death knell in politics except for that Nelson isnt polarizing at all. But perhaps most importantly, she sucks. I hope if she runs she wins, but from what i've seen, she comes off horribly on TV. and I can't imagine that hoarse voice and heavy mascara coming off any better in person. Example of another hated and polarizing political figure who is running in a southern state, but comes off great on TV and has a super chance of winning: Ralph Reed. SLickest guy I've ever seen. . probably too slick for his own good. So my advice to Harris would be to stay in her Congressional District and if she wants to work in Washington that bad, get appointed to a cabinet job.
I disagree with this totally. Harris is BY FAR the best candidate and I find the effort to find a candidate offensive. She's the only non -local candidate that I've ever given money too. I really think people should back off of her. She will beat Nelson.
Based on a poll more than a year out? Seriously, is that what we are basing this on?
And actually the poll # isn't that bad.
I don't like coronations, and some of these games that Mr. Rove and others like to play. We all remember what can happen to the "electable" candidates. We all know what happened to Pete Coors and John Kerry.
A Harris/Bense Primary (IF they stick to issues) I think would be good for both candidates, especially Bense. Harris will have her strongest test statewide, and Bense will increase his name recognition.
This needs to be decided by Floridians, not DC'ers.
I supported Rep. Harris with $$ for her first Congressional run. During her recent interview with Sean Hannity I learned that she voted for CAFTA, so she went on my "bad list." The adverse impact of illegal immigration will be the hot button issue in the 2006 elections, in my opinion. Unless a candidate takes a strong stand to do what the President lacks the political will to do--secure the borders--he or she will not get my vote or contributions. Also, too many American jobs have been outsourced, or, with the excessive H1-b visas, insourced.
Harris is underrated but would probably lose, as Nelson is lying low and avoiding trouble for himself at this point. She deserves better than to be pushed around by the FL GOP and White House, but on the other hand she should drop out to give the party a better shot.
If she left, Bense would kind of be hung out to dry though, because Foley and others would probably enter the race.