The Case for Jeb! in 2008 Part II
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The Case for Jeb in 2008 - Part II
Assuming Senator Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for President in 2008, then the best Republican strategy for winning in 2008 is simple: have a strategy for winning. If the GOP has to play 27 rounds of poker with eight or more wannabees, then the GOP will lose electoral ground every day to the presumptive Democratic nominee Senator Hillary Clinton. When the primaries are over and it's time to craft a general election strategy the eventual winner will be in a situation with little money and little time to build a compelling case for American voters, much like Kerry-Edwards in 2004.With primaries in both the Republican and the Democratic parties the MSM will not be dividing coverage equally. The eventual primary winner will be behind in the polls, lacking name ID and lacking money. The solution to this problem is to define a candidate early, support him vigorously, and go on the offensive swiftly.
What does the GOP need to win? Jeb Bush. In my opinion, he is the only logical choice if Hillary is the Democratic nominee and GOP is serious about keeping the White House in 2008.
The GOP needs a candidate who can raise $300-400 million. Is there anyone who doesn't believe every single donor who gave $300+ million to George in 2004 wouldn't also give that much to Jeb? Or more? If a GOP candidate has to run against Hillary and Bill, what better combination than George and Jeb? In the run up to the 2000 primaries many in the base of the Republican Party (i.e., donors) wanted Jeb, not George. He is the Barry Goldwater of our generation. No other Republican candidate can match Jeb's credentials, grassroots, network, or fundraising.
After four years of the war on terrorism and seemingly uncontrollable government growth, the GOP needs a candidate who is credible when he says he will reduce the size of government. In his second inaugural address Jeb said, "May these [government] buildings one day stand empty, a memorial to a time when government was oversized and not needed." In the six years Jeb has been governor of Florida he has reduced the size of government and cut taxes nearly every year. In addition, state revenues have increased and jobs opportunities have grown--all this while experiencing a national recession and multiple natural disasters. Today, Florida maintains one of the highest state credit ratings in the fifty states.
The GOP needs a candidate with strong ties overseas and is credible on foreign policy, especially trade with Latin America and South America. In addition to established Bush family ties (Saudis, Kuwaitis, and now Iraqis) Jeb works daily with many of the United States largest trade partners. He manages a state that represents a third of all American exports. Jeb has negotiated on behalf of the Free Trade of The Americas (FTTA) and the Central American Free Trade Agreements (CAFTA). Brazil, Mexico, Cuba, and Guatemala are but a few of the Central and South American countries that the United States must work with in the future on trade, immigration, and security.
The GOP needs a candidate with strong Hispanic ties. Jeb is married to Columba, a woman of Mexican descent. His high profile son, George P., is the Ricky Martin of Hispanic politics. Jeb manages a state that deals with immigration issues from virtually every Hispanic country in the Western Hemisphere. Additionally, he is quite experienced with policy debate regarding the balance between temporary workers, migrant workers, and border security.
The GOP needs a candidate strong on faith, but not fanatical or extremist. Jeb is Catholic, a candidate devoted to his faith but not a right wing ideologue that many swing voters fear.
The GOP needs a candidate who can reach out to centrist and moderate voters. Jeb's stands on issues like Terry Schiavo and parental notification for underage abortions affirm his protection of life and a defense of parents. His very public problems with his daughter's drug addiction make him more human to most middle-America parents.
The GOP needs a candidate strong on education. Jeb's priority as Governor of Florida has always been improving education. He has instituted multiple versions of vouchers and funding mechanisms for alternatives to failing schools. As a result, more schools are improving and children attending failing schools have the opportunity to receive a better education. While, there have been some controversies over vouchers, his policy for education demonstrates a leader willing to take a chance and explore all options.
In light of the failures and criticisms of the voucher programs, the average math and reading test scores in Florida have increased and passage rates have increased. All the more remarkable considering those gains were achieved in spite of a growing school-aged population that outpaces that of the a dozen states combined, and a sizable school-age population that doesn't speak English as a first language.
The GOP needs a candidate who is strong on domestic programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. In the retirement state that is Florida, Jeb has earned his stripes many times over regarding Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. He took the lead on promoting a more sustainable health insurance program and is working to reform Medicare in Florida in his lame duck year. And an added benefit, nobody knows better how to win the vote among the most active and growing voting population in America, senior citizens.
The GOP needs a candidate whose political and electoral mettle is tested and battle ready. Jeb worked his way through the Florida political system navigating considerable insider networks to build his own coalition of insiders. He has governed through an overzealous right wing legislature and managed the implementation of term limits. No governor in America withstands the slings and arrows of the daily media onslaught that Jeb endures. No governor in America was targeted for attack, or has ever been targeted, such as Jeb was by the DNC in 2002. And no governor in America has defended himself and successfully pushed his priorities such as Jeb.
Among "political" and media pundits the only substantial reason against Jeb is that he is the President's brother; it would be unprecedented in American history and the word "dynasty" would corrupt the process. That's the worst? From a strategic standpoint I want to know my leader. When the campaigning to be President of the United States begins I want all boots on the ground.
If I am a member of the executive GOP-and I'm not-I don't want to spend the next four years parachuting in feelers for this or that potential candidate. I don't want to spend money and time researching the credentials behind the lines of a weak candidate in what is surely an atypical election year. Let's face it; if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee then the GOP has only one chance to end the mystique of the Clintons and solidify their dominance of American politics for a generation. That chance is now.
Governor Jeb Bush is the only Republican with the requisite name ID, governing experience, conservative credentials, political ties and fundraising ability to even compete with the Clintons. He is term limited out of office in 2006 giving him two years without obligation to elected office.
He may not like it, but the solution for the GOP is to draft Jeb Bush now and start the campaign, behind the scenes, and for real. The race for the GOP primary should be over by the summer of 2006 and Jeb Bush should be the GOP candidate for president in 2008.
Great idea! Oh wait, he's still not running! How many times does the man have to say "NO."
Is that what you are referring to? Because that was King George III, of Revolutionary War fame.
If not, what's the connection between our current President and George II?
This detraction is exactly what I am talking about here -
Among "political" and media pundits the only substantial reason against Jeb is that he is the President's brother; it would be unprecedented in American history and the word "dynasty" would corrupt the process. That's the worst?
From a strictly electoral strategy perspective, if Clinton is the girl, then Bush is the guy. Name ID is still, and will always be, a positive in election politics, not a negative. If you don't have to spend money telling voters who you are then you get to spend money telling voters who the other guy is.
Think of it from the Clinton perspective. If Hillary is the nominee against somebody not a Bush, what does she get to spend her money on? The MSM will spend plenty of time talking up her positives and helping the voters get to know her, so she gets to spend $300 million destroying Owens/Sanford/Pawlenty/Brownback/Frist/insert-name-here and they can't realistically fight back because voters don't know who they are to begin with.
My first thought is, This is exactly why he should be President. This is what makes Cheney such a great VP.
My response to your post is this - lots of people want to be president, few, if any, have actually orchestrated the process without some history the people are aware of (LBJ, Nixon, H.W. Bush), introduction to the people over numerous years (Reagan), or a drafting process (Carter?). In fact Bill Clinton may be the best example of a candidate who actually planned the whole thing out and was remarkably succesful sticking to the plan.
Hillary did the same with NY and has a plan for the White House too.
Jeb has said "no" plenty of times. My point is too bad, he should be drafted. If Hillary is the nominee we need the best strategy we can have, because a half baked on-the-fly strategy won't cut it. I believe that strategy to be Jeb Bush. I believe it is his duty, his responsiblility to the party that has given so much to him and his family to give back the opportuntity to maintain control of the future and direction of this country.
I believe another Bush Presidency would crush the left wing moonbat ideaology permeating our society. It believe the utter failure of the extreme left wing would create a major shift in the electoral process and voters in this country. What if the Dem.'s win? It would give new life to an otherwise useless ideology.
I believe eight years with Jeb at the "helm" would see a dramatically reduced-in-size Federal Government, more educational choice, more free markets, more tax cuts, retirement solutions and continued strength in defense.
What I didn't mention in my post is the additional opportunity to name another one, two or three justices to the Supreme Court between 08 and 12 or 16. Do you want Hillary doing that?
"If nominated I will not run. If elected I will not serve." (my imagined response)
Won't he be too busy running after Schiavo's husband like a lunatic to run for President?
McCain 08!
In case you miss the other warning, if you don't have something substantive to contribute to the debate of this site, don't contribute anything at all.
You know it is true.
Jeb is off his rocker.
There are a dozens of excellent choices for prez before we have to start scraping the bottem of the barrel with the likes of Jeb. He is like the Ted Kennedy of the Republican Party.
As an admitted liberal, I don't feel like I can, in good faith, say who I think would be a good candidate for your side. I would like to say, though, that Hillary is by no means a dead lock for the nomination. She has a lot of support, but she lacks mine. She also has a real lack of support from the "netroots." The members of blogs like dKos, myDD, and Booman have stated over and over again that they don't want Hillary. I'm just saying, don't count your chickens before they hatch.
Also, I was just wondering if you were the same scorpio that used to frequent BOP.
except for that nasty pesky little problem - his last name.
I know this has already been hammered to the point of exaustion, but let me digress:
If nominated, he could be the third Bush in the last 20 years to be elected, following his father and brother. That means out of every GOP presidential ticket since 1980, a Bush would be present in seven of those eight. Assuming he runs again in 2012, it would be eight of nine.
To the contrary:
If nominated, Hillary Clinton could be the second Clinton in 20 years to be president, obviously following the (insert random clinton joke here) infamous Billy- Willy Clinton. That means out of every Dem presidential ticket since '80, the Clintons would be on only three of eight. Assuming she runs again in '12 it would be four of nine. Assuming Chelsea runs in 2032(I'm joking)
Also, let us take the Bushes. The ever-lovable George HW, and his two sons, all blood relatives, would be president within a quarter century years. I know the dynasty stuff is crap, but this is starting to become a little out of line. Au contraire, the Clintons, who despite being married are not blood relatives. Also, the Clintons are putting up a distancing act so Hill can run free from Bill in '08 to aviod the obvious stain of "evil conniving witch who happens to be a disgruntled wife of a impeached former president out seeking blood revenge"
With a liberal media and with W already be smeared as King George the 2nd, it won't fly. This is also assuming Hill even runs in 2008, as she could be freezing cats by then. Hell, I could be freezing cats by 2008. But again, I digress.