John Fund: Cornyn and Bonilla
By Adam C2 Posted in User Blogs — Comments (23) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In today's OpinionJournal Political Diary (sub. only email), John Fund argues that President Bush has an "ace" in the hole. After positing that the President is looking at two groups, close friends and Hispanics, Fund puts this scenario into play:
As a sitting senator, it would be difficult for Democrats to filibuster [Senator Cornyn], especially since his voting record is clearly not extreme. Yet he's nonetheless considered a solid conservative and at age 53 would likely be on the court for a generation. Meanwhile, the departure from the Senate of Mr. Cornyn would also open up a vacancy that Texas Governor Rick Perry, an old Bush ally, would likely fill with Rep. Henry Bonilla, the only Hispanic GOP congressman in Texas. Mr. Bonilla was already raising money for a possible Senate run in 2006 in case Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison had decided to retire and run for governor. The betting now is that Mr. Bonilla could easily win the special election that would be called a few months after he was named to the seat.
In the Senate, Mr. Bonilla would join Mel Martinez, the new Republican Senator from Florida, whose election the White House played a key role in engineering last year. "Bush could wait to appoint an Hispanic to the next court vacancy," a close Bush friend from Texas told me. "In the meantime, he would get credit for diversifying the Republican Party and creating a future possible vice presidential candidate for the GOP in 2008 by raising the visibility and stature of Henry Bonilla."
Interesting. Acceptable. Safe conservative pick that avoids super-partisan showdown. Laudable from my perspective.
Lets go over this one more time. It does not matter what Reid, Kennedy, or Leahy thing. It only matters what Nelson, Landrieu, Pryor, DeWine, McCain, Warner, and Graham think. And I find it highly unlike that we can't win 2 votes from that list for a sitting Senator who isn't out of the mainstream. Coburn would have a problem, Cornyn would not. My guess is the vote would be 70-30 or so.
And I would add that the more noise that Kennedy, Reid etal make in this loosing battle, the more compromised they become.
The only question is how much public foolishness are they willing to conduct in order to pander to the extremists in their base.
Yeah, we've had some. Sandy Day was one. Historically it was even more common. But I think if you want to be critical of O'Conner's jurisprudence, you have to frame it in the light that she was a legislator, familiar with horse-trading and outcome driven in policy. I don't know enough about Cornyn to say one way or the other, but that's something to chew on....
When Cornyn wrote a piece for the Washington Post I think he was sending the message that he wouldn't be nominated for the Supreme Court, but would be helping the nominee through no matter who it was.
That is why, when evaluating the nominee, I will not be asking for commitments as to how he or she will rule on cases involving such contentious issues as abortion, affirmative action, same-sex marriage, the war on terrorism or any other specific issue on which the nominee might eventually rule.
To ask a judicial nominee how he or she will rule on future cases is to force the nominee to prejudge these cases. Imagine going before a judge whose mind was already made up concerning your case. Imagine a judge who had promised the president or some senator that he would rule against you -- no matter the merits of the case. That would not be a judicial process; it would be a political process.
This sounds more like "I'm willing to help". It doesn't sound like he thinks he's in contention (whether by his or the president's choice).
a VP search that started something like that back in the day...
And POTUS soon figured that the guy heading the search was the guy for the job. :o)
That sounds like a good way to get the first one done quickly with a victory for the Presdient, the Court, the Senate, the Party, and Texas.
I think it would be good to elevate a Congressman. And despite my dislike for ID politics, it couldn't hurt to have Hispanic Republican Senators from FL and TX in the coming years.
I would equate that move to some extent with Wilhelm the II "dropping the pilot" and sending Bismarck on his merry way. Of course, Rove is no Bismarck and Bush no Kaiser Wilhelm (thankfully, on both accounts) but a White House without Rove actually frightens me a little bit. At least Rove is unceasingly predictable in his partisanship - heaven knows who might grab the president's ear absent Karl.
File this under "better the devil you know" category.
If you ever consider party-jumping, please call me up. Your strategizing is as good as our top guys here.
Now that would give people some seriously premature gray hairs.
No, I am a liberal for a reason - and make no mistake, I am one, on most issues. I can tinker at the edges, and in the last year or so I've grown somewhat out of the raging partisan I once was, but at the root, as Thomas so eloquently and sadly pointed out about Daniel Patrick Moynihan, I am ultimately still wearing the other team's jersey.
Daniel Patrick Moynihan is one of the past Dems that I really liked, but then again he was open to personal accounts for SS which is my big issue right now. Must have been that Oklahoma upbriging before heading to the big city.
Rove is used to the high priced world of political consultants, and he's at the top of his game. A Hundred and a half per year with severe constraints on outside income would be a severe hindrance to his lifestyle.
Aside from Cornyn, I'd like to see more discussion of these "outside the box" picks. Kind of like what Clinton wanted to do before selecting Bryer. How about a professor like Richard Epstein, Robert George, Steven Calabresi??? Could we surprised by a pick like this?
If ALL 14 members of the deal would go in front of national TV right after the President nominated Cornyn and said they wouldn't filibuster him, I'd say this would be a very viable option.
However, the Dems only need a fraction of the 14 to side with them in a filibuster. I'm concerned that our guys won't respond to the Filibuster with the constitutional option unless its crystal clear the Democrats broke the deal. I'm more worried about weak kneed GOP Senators who will capitulate if the Dems filibuster a nominee than anything else.
I want someone with a proven paper trail i.e. Mike Luttig, John Roberts, Mike McConnell, etc. We don't have any margin of error on this pick. Just nominate any of the above mentioned names and all will be fine.
Texas Supreme Court, 1991-1997, District Court Judge in San Antonio for 6 yrs before that. Not sure whether that makes him a better or worse candidate, I just offer that up.
doesn't rise to the top of his onw list...
is a senator. You have all the paper trail you need: his voting record (along with his speeches and so forth).
has been waiting around for an open seat for quite some time. he'll never run for it under his own steam. last time around, of course, they anointed cornyn instead. if they want bonilla as senator (or eventual VP) that's the only way they'll get him. but sounds like more of a dream scenario than a real one. i am not sure that having another hispanic republican in the senate is a real reason to nominate cornyn. it isn't enough of a bargaining chip. libs hate identity republicans more than they hate plan old anglo republicans. however, i am willing to concede that fund's info is far more updated than mine.
Bush-Rove now have a Senate which lines up 55-45, with ten (10) more Republicans than Democrats. Bush and Rove have worked on dozens of Senate races since 2000 to get to the present position. Bush will always go for the touchdown, not short yardage. He intends to change the direction of the high court, and he has the votes to get anyone he wants confirmed. I trust him. He wants to atone for his father's worst mistake, Mr. Souter. He feels it is absolutely necessary to re-make the court. He will probably get a total of four appointments before he leaves office in 2009. He will take advice from Ted Kennedy about as much as Bill Clinton did from Jesse Helms.
Cornyn is a good staunch conservative that isn't too radical for the Dems in the Senate to honestly try to block. Unfortunately, I think the monied base of the Dems is going to insist on blocking any nominee if they aren't ACLU and Howard Dean approved.