The deluge.
By trevino Posted in Miscellanea — Comments (36) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Most Americans are fortunate to have never seen a Class 5 hurricane or its effects. I have. In fall 1998, I deployed with my US Army Engineer battalion to Nicaragua to conduct relief and reconstruction missions as part of Operation Fuerte Apoyo in the aftermath of Hurricane Mitch. That tremendous storm packed enough ferocity to smash Central America, drench the Yucatan, hit Florida, and and persist as an identifiable weather system north of the British Isles. Tens of thousands, mostly in Central America, were left dead in its wake.
When we arrived in Managua, there was trash and debris strewn in the streets of the capital city. Some houses had visible debris lines marking the height of the water in the neighborhood. In the countryside, vegetation was broken and scattered across wide fields. Trees with snapped trunks and limbs; grasses lain flat by mighty winds; scrub plants uprooted and thrown far afield at crazy angles: all greeted us as we progressed inland to our area of operation. Huge bridges lay on their sides, broken cleanly at their concrete bases. Shells of houses, sometimes single walls, recalled the ruins of antiquity.
We saw tremendous gorges carved where tiny streams once flowed. One day I traveled with my platoon sergeant down a deep, wide, and steep dry riverbed, and we noted the houses perched precariously on the banks' edge. Finally we came across a well emerging from the riverbed towering fifteen feet in the air above us; and we knew that this was not an old, dry riverbed at all. Beside us, a tiny trickle of streamwater burbled toward the Pacific, its damage long since done. That well was inaccessible; others were simply erased from existence. I spoke with some children playing in a sandbank at a worksite where my platoon was building a river-crossing; they showed me a featureless shallow depression where el pozo used to be. They also spoke of how all the known land mines were now moved about. This made it unsafe to play.
The most affecting sight of catastrophe came when a Nicaraguan soldier took me to see a bleak landscape of hardened mud. He related how there were once towns on this deathly vista. The hurricane hit and blew the buildings down. Then the rains flooded the fields and carved rivers through the streets. Then the long-slumbering volcanic crater above, filled with water, burst open, and the pitiful survivors were themselves slaughtered by the hundreds as a mountain's worth of hot mud, water and stone entombed them all. It was the Casita lahar.
I've seen what a Class 5 can do. That's why I pray for New Orleans now.
Update [2005-8-29 10:41:24 by trevino]:
The flooding is underway, and will intensify as the western eyewall's stronger winds start hammering the waves against the levees. The Ninth Ward of New Orleans is reportedly experiencing flooding varying from three to eight feet of water. You can see the Ninth's levee heights here, and a broader overview of the New Orleans levee system here.
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The deluge. 36 Comments (0 topical, 36 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
On CNN, just saw footage from the "last bar open on Bourbon St." They looked busy drawing down inventory. They say, their next step is to find a three-story or higher building somewhere.
I can't believe this. This has to be a joke.
From:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/2005/08/katrina_proves_1.php
Katrina Proves Bush is a Failure
Posted by Bob Brigham ( www.swingstateproject.com )
Three reasons why George Bush has failed the entire gulf coast -- especially New Orleans -- and should be held accountable for the result of Katrina:
- The Louisiana National Guard is in Iraq
- The energy of the storm is compounded by the higher sea tempurature that is forced upon a hurricane by Global Warming
- Bush received warnings that this was one of the "three likeliest, most castastrophic disasters" and did nothing but stay on vacation and cut funding
The Kossacks have many, many comments in threads discussing all of those and more. It is un-freaking-believable.
I guess I misunderestimated just what sorry losers the lefties really are.
If that's the science they want taught in schools, I think we need to push for a lot more home schooling in America.
to describe such a blatant piece of political posturing.
my apartment in Baton Rouge. We are safer here than in the Crescent City, but we must all pray that the poor residents of New Orleans make it through all right.
Liberals will never loose an opportunity to make outlandish, untrue, and shameful connections to blame Bush. While it is true the logic of these previous comments rises just short of the level of 1st grade arithmetic, we must pause to a moment to understand the hatefulness that breads such comments. Laughable to some, enraging to others, connecting Bush to a "natural" disaster (translation: that which is caused by nature devoid of human intervention or influence) will be the next news item of the week. Sorry Cindy, this is prime Bush hating material, guess you should pack your bags, unless you have your own video camera.
Once the crisis is over, these idiocies will make nice blunt objects against those indiscreet enough to use them--as well as anyone who defends them.
hey - don't lump in the whackos with the lefties. I am pretty much firmly on the left and I have heard none of my friends and acquaintences say anything this stupid. There are nut-cases in the world, and they are on all sides. Do you guys claim Pat Robertson when he says this kind of stuff:
(1) that God told him that there would be serious casualties in Iraq and he told Bush and Bush brushed it off, or
(2) that the U.S. should assasinate Hugo Chavez, The president of Venezuela, or
(3) that 911 was punishment for America's moral decay.
How about Jerry Fallwell when he says that the tsunami is punishment because those people in Indonesia are not Christian?
There are nut cases on all sides and the RW definitely has their fair share. In fact, Pat Robertson and Jerry Fallwell are part of the RW infrastructure that the GOP counts on to deliver votes at the national level (Christian Coalitian). That goofy site that was cited is just some random nut case. Its not representative of the left. In fact, people like Pat Robertson are a whole lot closer to the RW establishment.
This kind of going out of your way to smear the entire left just to make everyone on the left look bad to people who don't know any better. We should do a whole lot less smearing and a whole lot more promoting the good ideas that are in both parties. We got a lot of really huge issues approaching, and our time would be much better spent ignoring the nut-jobs on both sides and focusing on finding solutions to problems like national security, the avalanche of public debt, the fact that we continue to fall behind in education, the inevitable rise of countries like India and China and the impending competition that will force American workers to change their lives on an unprecedented scale. We got way to much work to do to be focused on these whackos.
at least the preparations seem to be going well and organized. hopefully there will be no loss of life. our thoughts and prayers are with the people who live on the gulf.
We're just a bit more than a third of the way through this year's tropical storm/hurricane season -- on August 2, they revised their estimate of the number of storms upward significantly, and forecast that this season is beyond what they term a "hyperactive" baseline:
For the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season the outlook calls for an extremely active season, with the seasonal ACE index forecasted to range from 180%-270% of the median. This range is above the 175% baseline that Goldenberg et al. (Science, 2001) use to define a hyperactive season. The outlook also calls for a seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms, with 9-11 becoming hurricanes, and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes [categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale]. Because the ACE index does not directly account for the numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, the predicted ACE range can verify even if these numbers fall outside their predicted ranges.
If the forecast is accurate, making a donation to the Red Cross now will be money well-spent, either on this hurricane or the next one.
...From New Orleans? Latest prediction for surge is 10-18 feet in Mississippi. Is that far enough east to save N.O.?
is going to pass to the east of NOLA and continue on up to the Mississippi coast (look out Biloxi!). That will save the city from the absolute worst as the winds are weaker on the west side.
We were supposed to go to New Orleans this coming weekend. That's looking very doubtful. Not sure if we'll be able to get a refund, and everything was prepaid (not just airfare, but hotel and tour).
My brother in law is at his parish in New Orleans. the chapter house is full of refugees. The wind is strong, some roof tiles are blowing off the sanctuary. Rain is blowing hard enough to come in through the door frames. The structure is OK so far (0740 CDT). The streets are not flooding. The power went out at 0145this morning, but cell phone reception is still good, strange enough. The wind can be heard howling in the background. He and other volunteers are spending their time checking the safety of the building and comforting the refugees.
From what I see on the radar, the maximum danger will come when the strong winds of the west side of the eye bear down on the lake, testing the levees. That will be later this morning at the storm's present rate of movement.
Hurricanes are bad enough for cities that aren't below sea level. Between the flooding and the winds, it is going to be one scary place for a while.
If the President were a Democrat, I have no doubt that there would be people on the other side of the ditch making the same types of stupid allegations (substituting something else for the global warming part).
The New Orleans nightmare scenario has been known for a while now. Seeing as there isn't much that can be done to avoid a direct hit by a hurricane, I think that success in mitigating the damage of Katrina will have to be measured by how well the public in the area was prepared and evacuated. That gigantic task is a mix of personal, local, state and federal responsibilities.
To everyone with a personal, financial or other stake in LA and MS right now. CAT Vs are nasty mothers.
I've rdden out a couple of CAT IIIs and they put on a pretty good show and caused lots of peripheral trouble (roofs, trees, slight flooding, chunks of concrete flying around, that sort of thing) but caused little real damage.
So much for the hope that there won't be any casualties. They can't remove all the crazies. You know, those like myself. Prolly lose a few dozen, but the worst casualties will come from places that thoght they were out of the main path of the storm. And considering the direction of the storm (right up the center of Tornado Alley), the tornadoes spinning off and other fun side-effects of major hurricanes will cause more trouble than the hurricane itself.
Good Luck to all those caught in the path of any of that.
I have now seen 2 unconfirmed reports that the levee protecting N.O. has been breached. One by a reporter near the hyatt who's reporting heavy flooding coming from the north (too much to be just rain) and one apparently out on the wires of a homeowner escaping through his roof.
Anyone else heard similar reports?
"Mississippi levee breaks near French Quarter" -- Fox News
www.nola.com is reporting that the 9th ward levee (whatever that is) has failed...
IANAL, but if you don't go on the trip, you have certainly lost your money. But if you try to go and the other party fails to provide the service pre-paid for, it seems to me you've got a pretty good claim. Unless there's that act of God business in the fine print. Good luck to you and better luck to those in the path of this storm.
You might be able to reschedule. Depending on when the city can get back on its feet, that might work out well.
In my experience, Expedia has been very good in the past about accomodating people where possible when natural disasters intervene. That said, if there's an "act of god" clause in the part of the agreement between you and the airline/hotel/etc, then you may be SOL.
My advice would be to wait a few days and see how bad the damage is, and what the projections are for getting the city back on its feet. Then you can make the decision about whether or not to call and try to get a refund.
Alternatively, if it's an option for you, then you might try calling the Red Cross or local authorities and ask if they need volunteers; explain your situation and offer what would likely be some much-appreciated help.
...who the "right wing nutcases" are, and what they say, because when they say something nutty, the MSM amplifies and distributes it so that nobody is uninformed about how insane the wingnuts are.
When some mainstream Democrat like Nancy Pelosi, Mary Landrieu or Charles Rangel parrots one or more of Bob Brigham's swingstateproject talking points, will you do a follow-up here disavowing them?
From noaa.gov:
After passing over Swan Island on the 27 October, Mitch began to gradually weaken while moving slowly westward. It then turned southwestward and southward toward the Bay Islands off the coast of Honduras. The center passed very near the island of Guanaja as a category four hurricane. Mitch slowly weakened as its circulation interacted with the land mass of Honduras.
From mid-day on the 27th, to early on the 29th,the central pressure rose 59 mb. The center of the hurricane meandered near the north coast of Honduras from late on the 27th through the 28th, before making landfall during the morning of the 29th about 70 n mi east of la Ceiba with estimated surface winds of 85 knots and a minimum central pressure of 987 mb.
After making landfall, Mitch moved slowly southward, then southwestward and westward, over Honduras, weakening to a tropical storm by 0600 UTC 30 October, and to a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 31 October.
The overall motion was slow, less than 4 knots, for a week. This resulted in a tremendous amount of rainfall, estimated at up to 35 inches, primarily over Honduras and Nicaragua -- see Table 2. The heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods and mudslides that killed thousands of people.
In other words, Mitch parked just off of Honduras for two whole days and dropped nearly three feet of rain in some places.
Canal St. / garden District doing OK, power still out, debris in streets, no flooding. Storm has passed (a/o 4:36 PM CDT). Damage is limited to shingles and occasional broken windows.No injuries reported.
About the levees is that they really aren't anything spectacular to begin with so the flooding won't be as bad as, say, the Sacramento River's levee failing. At 70 in height and width, when it goes, you're talking a 30 foot wall of water. Been there, seen that.
Note: This is just my attempt at saying, "See? It's not All bad!"
down here in Baton Rouge. That was never really in question though. The folks in NO have taken it on the chin, as we expected, but it seems Katrina didn't hit them dead on as was anticipated. Baton Rouge lost power for about half the day, so I haven't been on here all day. Imagine! It was interesting to try to cook breakfast in the dark though.
Baton Rouge came through just fine, all things considered. Some of us may be without power for a few more days, but that's about it. Still too early to tell the full toll of devastation in New Orleans. I've been watching the raw footage of the State Police or National Guard helicopter flight which yielded that dramatic footage of the rooftop rescue by the Coast Guard. One entire side of the Hyatt hotel lost every single one of its windows. There's not too much water in downtown New Orleans, but much of Metairie and Kenner and other parts of the area are completely flooded, some to the rooftops.
I've posted some pictures of downed trees and what not in my own neighborhood here. You have to scroll down some to see the photos because Blogger adds a whole bunch of blank lines for some unknown reason.
are okay.
Pat-thanks for the links to the pictures.
Nature and her wrath never ceases to amaze me. Yikes!
Things degraded terribly over night.
in Daphne, AL (across the bay from Mobile).
Katrina caused storm surge up the bay of probably 10 to 15 feet - just judging by the water level in relation to I-10 bridge across the bay, and in relation to the flooding at my parent's house. Along the waterfront the devestation was just horrendous in places, and we were about 130 miles east of the eye of Katrina. - the water beat down a 3ft square brick support column under my parents' house, along with all the walls on the first floor. I'm guessing that there is roughly $200,000, to $300,000 in damage, and that's only if the cars aren't totaled out due to being totally flooded with salt water. I've seen video footage of places closer and the devestation is even worse. To give an example, Katrina storm surge picked up a Casino in Biloxi, MS and moved it about half a mile over the beach and across the road. This was a massive building just picked up and moved.
Life goes on, and people will rebuild, but keep us in your thoughts and prayers.
Good luck to all of you as you try to pick up the pieces and move forward.
and I pray that those in the path got out of the way, this isn't something I would choose to ride out.