Redstate

I thought the Democratic domination of the voting public was greater than that. It seems there are a lot of people at least willing to consider Kean.

Corzine may have made a miscalculation here. Or not, if his only concern was winning the governorship. But if he was trying to solidify Democratic control of the NJ offices...well, we'll see.

We can discuss whether the poll numbers are accurate at another time.  More importantly, there issues involving one of NJ's largest counties that may change the landscape of the Senate race.

Bergen County Republican Organization is in the midst of turmoil, having split in 2 factions, Kean has been asked to run with both tickets, one being the official BCRO line and the other line being off line and dubbed the Liberal line, for having RINO's in the slots.

If Kean chooses the dissident line, the BCRO will place a TRUE Conservative candidate on that line that will open the door for a real convention battle between the 2 candidate and a choice for Conservatives.

While Kean would probably triumph at the end of the day in the primary, money he didnt have to spend, he may have to sue, issues he didnt have to address because he had no primary challenger, he would know have to address and comment on and conservative votes he would have gotten may now be in play and the divide could weaken him in the general election.

Stay tuned !!

Michael

National Review Online has a Senate outlook up today.  Here is what it has to say about the NJ race:

NEW JERSEY: The debate over ports probably helps Democratic senator Bob Menendez, who is now calling for Congress to spend $1 billion more on port security. Even so, Menendez, who was appointed to complete the Senate term of newly elected governor Jon Corzine, will face a strong opponent in Tom Kean, a Republican with a last name that's familiar to New Jersey voters. One recent poll gave Menendez a small lead, 42 percent to 37 percent, but another survey earlier this month put Kean on top, 32 percent to 30 percent. The bottom line is that many voters remain up for grabs. TOSS UP

For what it's worth.

As one of two Senate hopefuls who will get a small donatation from me this year.  I hope to post a diary in the next couple of weeks with my choices.

MBIGOP...why the heck is the Republican Party of one of the most liberal counties in NJ (I should know...I'm from there) trying to fight Kean to get a "true conservative"?  Instead of fighting meangingless internecine battles to get a more conservative candidate with absolutely no chance at the polls, let's get behind a good candidate to oppose a terrible democratic one, and actually win.

I understand that in some places a primary battle to get a more conservative candidate might be at least vaguely worthwhile.  To say that this is neither the time nor the place is a massive understatement.

Uber,

I am also from NJ, but not from Bergen County.

From what I can gather, they are not trying to fight Kean, if he doesnt accept the official endorsement to run on the BCRO line, what are they to do, leave the top slot empty ??

If Kean accepts the BCRO line, its the end of the story, there will be no primary challenger ...

The question you should be asking is why hasn't Kean accepted the BCRO endorsement, (at least to this point), and why would he entertain accepting an offer to run on an non-organization line whose candidates are being billed as LIBERAL ...

It's great that Kean is keeping it so close early on in a Democratic state.  Let's hope that isn't the result of his name recognition.  He's probably going to have to do something to undermine some Democratic support to beat Menendez, but I'm confident he could pull it off.

...weren't early polls (or maybe it was actually polling data from near election day) showing recent GOP candidates in NJ (Franks and Forrester was it???) in a tight race with heavily-favored Democrats, only to end up losing rather easily in the end?  

Didn't some polls suggest Bush might make a race of NJ against Kerry, only to have him lose going away?  

It seems voters in NJ are always higher on Republicans leading up to the election, but not so keen on them when its time to actually vote.

If GOP retentin of the Senate depends on Kean Jr, then we are in very bad shape.  

Menendez voted against a local Italian American judge....

We must remember that Forrester never lead Corzine in a single poll. Kean started out about 10% above Menendez, certainly promising.

Bush did (sort of) give Kerry a race in NJ. We lost the state by less than 7 points, a gigantic improvement over his showing against Gore in 2000.

Franks came within three points of Corzine in 2000 despite being outspent by a ridiculous margin and Bush running at the top of the ticket about 16 points behind Gore.

I am not overly optimistic on Kean's chances because of the leaning of the state and of the cycle so far, but he's as good of a candidate we could find (electability wise anyway). Any poll that has you ahead among independents in NJ is good news, and this is coming in the same poll that has Bush's approval/disapproval at 31-65.

Wasn't he one of the last to cast his vote for the Democrats? Or am I confusing him with Lautenberg? And can I spell Lautenberg right once in my life?

They don't call it the garden state for nothing, you know. Seems there is a distinctly smaller number of democratic voters in New Jersey in May than there is in November, right after the harvest.

If you want to start slinging accusations that voting fraud is what swings elections in New Jersey, you can look at the dead in Newark and Jersey City, etc. I believe it was the former Gov. Brendan Byrne who said he wanted to be buried in Jersey City so he could keep voting after he was dead. But implying somehow that illegals are responsible for Democrats trending upward at the end is ridiculous. Not to mention a Democrat hasn't won a race that was close enough to fix in quite a while in NJ, the recent squeakers have been Whitman's elections.

Heck, if you want to be a little creative, you can come up with a pretty good rational for why races have swung to Democrats late in the race in New Jersey. The default position for most independent voters in New Jersey, at least elections since Poppa Bush's 1988 triumph, is Democratic. New Jersey voters are notoriously late deciders. Late in the race, if there is no real trend for the Republican, these voters will make their way toward their natural side of the ticket. Plus, votes tend to break against incumbents at the last minute, and there has not been an incumbent reelected in Jersey as a Democrat to his office since Lautenberg barely fought off Chuck Haytaian in 1994. Without this late deciding trend, there's nothing to cancel out the natural inclination to vote for the D.

It's actually rather neat if you look at the lack of Democratic reelections. 1996, Toricelli replaced Bradley; 1997, Whitman was reelected; 2000, Corzine replaced Lautenberg; 2001, McGreevey won an open seat; 2002, Lautenberg replaced Toricelli; 2005, Corzine replaced Codey. Over that time span a Republican has only won one statewide race, but no Democrat has successfully been reelected to his office.

To get back from that tangent, where I'm going with this is there are plenty of reasons Republicans perpetually build up their hopes in New Jersey (suburban demographics, success in the somewhat recent past, weak opponents), reinforced by early polling, only to have them dashed come election day. I feel it's pretty safe to say illegal immigrants haven't decided an election for the Democrats in the Garden State. I'm not saying Kean can't or won't win, just that I'd be surprised if he did and if he doesn't it's because more legal citizens legally voted for Menendez than voted for Kean.

I, for one, don't understand Kean's reluctance to stick with the BCRO. Scott Garrett has stayed with them, and it seems he'd avoid many more problems by making that choice. It isn't like the moderates are going to sit on their hands for Kean come November. They all adore his father, and by most measures, he's cut from the same cloth.

One other note, Bergen County is not even remotely one of the most liberal counties in New Jersey. In 2004, it voted 51.9% for Kerry, 1% less than the state on the whole. It's a whole lot less GOP friendly than it was back in the 1980s when it was a bastion of Republican strength (58% for Bush 41 in 1988) and the local GOP has lost control of county government since the turn of the century, but it is not in the same league as Essex or Hudson in terms of liberalness. Garrett represents a decent portion of Bergen and he is the only reliably conservative member of NJ's congressional delegation. Even in this squabble, the BCRO represents the conservative side of the argument, while the liberal GOPers are the rebellious ones.

The pair were among the last few to make up their minds on the Alito vote. Remember, this was the first real issue Menendez faced upon appointment to the Senate and Lautenberg was charged with introducing Alito to the Judiciary Committee. At the time it was still unclear whether Menendez would face a serious primary challenge from either Rep. Frank Pallone or Rep. Rob Andrews, and his liberal views combined with his desire to court influential factions in a potentially divisive primary must have outweighed any benefits of supporting the hometown guy.

But the coincidence is funny if you think about it. I just didn't expect to encounter any enraged liberals here. My mistake.

I hadn't even considered the possibility of voter fraud until you went off protesting so much. I just figured that obviously, in November there must be democrats willing to come out and vote that can't be found in March. For the record, that would also include the snowbirds, too.

But since you mentioned it, being stuck in South Jersey for the last twenty years I can assure you that it would never occur to me to suggest that voter fraud had anything to do with Corzine being elected. The convictions and disgrace of corrupt and dishonest officials from both parties not withstanding.

No, I realize that Corzine bought his election fair and square, so he could serve us and protect us from exploitation by the rich elite.

Kate O'Beirne is not impressed with Sen. Kean, Jr.

State Senator Tom Kean Jr. got suspicious minds to work when he missed appearing with Vice President Cheney at a fundraising event on his behalf because he was "stuck in traffic." The fundraiser was expected to raise $400,000 for Kean's Senate campaign. It seems that Kean either lacks a sense of where he is and where he's going (heading north from Trenton, he took a congested route with traffic lights rather than the thruway[Turnpike]) or he is an opportunistic nervous Nellie ( he doesn't want to be seen with the V.P. but wants the cash Cheney can raise). Either way, there are plenty of both already in the Senate GOP caucus and no need to add to their numbers.

Ouch.