Redstate

I read that Emmanuel says he is waiting for all the GOP retirements.  Is this the dam breaker?  And, more locally, what does this do to the race?  Is this a solid GOP district?  Anyone know?

is the district he is vacating?

When is the primary?

If a lot of Republicans choose this year to retire, it could bode very badly for the 2006 election.

Is Bakersfield, one of the most conservative areas of CA.  I don't think we'll have any problems there.

Maybe if the GOP starts to feel very threatened they'll start getting some work done (taxes, SocSec, budget reform).  That would excite people like me in the base who are nauseated by the lackluster performance by the majority and who would consider either sitting out or voting Libertarian, than maintaining a crummy status quo.

Or are my standards/expectations just too high?  :-)

but it does make me wonder why he's retiring now.

that it's because he has to give up ways and means after this year.  

He is term-limited as Ways & Means Chairman, and there's nowhere else for him to go that wouldn't be a step down in power.

That seems to support the theory that this supposed streak of Republican retirements is actually just a bunch of Republicans who decided to retire at the same time for different reasons, none of which was fear that they would lose in November.

Thomas was chairman of the House Administration committee from 1995-2001 and Ways and Means from 2001-2007. There is nowhere else from him to go.

His successor will be his former chief of staff and current Assembly minority leader Kevin McCarthy.  

...is still very, very sad. More than an R warming a seat, he was an absolute giant on economic policy. Even though his seat will likely be filled by a Republican, there will still be a gaping void left to be filled.

Why can't all the Bill Thomas Republicans stay and all the Christopher Shays Republicans retire?

Depressing.

He was very good on tax policy and economic issues. I will be sorry to see him go.

Thanks,

and go to K Street to make the big bucks before final retirement.

This is probably the most GOP district in California. The boundaries gave many of the Mexicans to the Jim Costa district.

was good to know this district seems to be in good shape.  With his expertise perhaps Pres Bush has a place for him in in '07.

How voting for a Dem (wich is what you would be doing by sitting out) will help. I admit things are not swimming, but what good will getting Speaker Pelosi do?

I don't think so.

Most would have retired long before now. If I remember reading correctly, most 94' Dem retirements were much earlier than this.

I happen to live in this district. And in McCarthy's 32nd Assembly District. I think it's safe to say that it will remain in Republican hands.

2004 General Election -

22nd District

Registered [D's-66459] [R's-121758] [Tot-226965]

Bill Thomas got 96% of the vote. It appears he ran unopposed.

McCarthy won 78% of the vote in the 32nd Assembly District.

Kern County Elections Site

http://tinyurl.com/mozlj

Theory one is that if the GOP controls the executive and the Senate, then they will be checked by a Democrat HR.  Less will get done, which means less earmarks and less abuses.  This necessitates a belief that if the GOP controls all branches then still nothing will get done.  I'd argue we're about there now.

None of the retirements thus far can be attributed to fear of losing.  As you said, there are different reasons.  That could change, though.

The Harvard Corp. should name Bill Thomas the new headmaster of Harvard University. :-) LOL