TX-28: Cuellar vs. Rodriguez - What It Means
By Adam C2 Posted in 2006 — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Congressman Cuellar became the first Democrat endorsed by the Club For Growth. And although not every vote has been counted, it now seems clear that the Congressman has won re-election. TX-28 is a majority Hispanic district that stretches from Laredo on the border to San Antonio. This race pitted a moderate, pro-school choice, pro-CAFTA Hispanic Representative against a kossite, Howard Dean-style "real Democrat." If this were the 90s, Mr. Cuellar would be the "New Democrat" as his positions are only slightly to the right of President Clinton's. As I mentioned earlier this week,
The results will probably be interpreted as a trend in Hispanic politics in TX toward personal responsibility and pro-market solutions or toward liberal statism.
President Bush won a majority of voters here in 2004. It seems the trend of Hispanics gravitating toward more conservative politicians when given the option is continuing.
Republicans have not put a lot of time and effort into pursuing minority votes over the past few decades mostly due to a belief in a colorblind policies. However, President Bush and Governor Bush of FL have done extremely well in the Hispanic communities of their home states. With 8 years of Presidential outreach and a concerted effort at the state level, Hispanic voters are warming up to the Republican party. And it would not surprise me to see someone like Congressman Cuellar leave the Democratic Party if he continually draws primary challenges from the MoveOn.org wing of the party. After a few terms in Congress, he would have the homegrown support to switch if need be and he might bring a few voters with him. As long as the coastal left wing of the Democrats continues to believe their views are popular in working class Hispanic neighborhoods in TX (and similar districts), they will remain in the proverbial wilderness outside their coastal stronghold.
Finally, the lesson from the successful outreach to the Hispanic community on issues of faith, school choice, and rewarding hard work is that sometimes it takes reaching out to a community before they give you a chance. I think the Republicans have learned this lesson and are applying it to the black community now. The message of low taxes, equal opportunity in the school of one's choice, respect for faith, and opposition to abortion-on-demand and same-sex marriage has opened new doors for the Republicans. The fact that some moderate Democrats are winning primaries on the same issues is additional evidence that these positions are winning ones.
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TX-28: Cuellar vs. Rodriguez - What It Means 4 Comments (0 topical, 4 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
great analysis- hopefully we can get Cuellar to switch party registration in the next few elections. He can't like having a primary like this one to get through..
A 12 point loss is competative in Kos' book. Hmm...well, if John Kerry's 3% loss in 2004 was razor thin, then I guess that 12% might be considered "competative" by the same standard. LOL
Luckily for Cuellar, Kos has endorsed him in the general election. LOL. So now Kos and The Club for Growth are on the same side. :-)
I actually am starting to feel genuinely bad for these guys. They're just naive idealists who for some reason think south Texas is "progressive", and combined they sent >$150,000 into a primary.
Before the "netroots" entered the race, the polls showed Cueller with 45 and Rodriguez with 30. Cueller's final margin was 12%. And many of them are drinking Kos' Kool-Aid that this was in fact a victory of sorts, gaining 3%.

Cuellar came out with a 52-41% win with all but two precincts reporting. A runoff might have gotten the Kossacks excited, but Cuellar seems to have avoided that.