On Deterrence And Its Attendant Confusions
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in Foreign Affairs — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Stuart Buck has a question. The answer--according to a great many people--is that the Iraqis were trying to make their Middle Eastern neighbors (most especially the Iranians) believe that they had bioweapons, even thought it now seems that they didn't.
Of course, this raises the question as to whether the United States was supposed to view this attempt on the part of the Ba'athist regime to bluff their way towards deterrence as proof that the Iraqis did have bioweapons, and thus posed a threat to regional and international security. No doubt, for many, the answer to that is "no." We are either supposed to be omniscient, or to let the Ba'athist regime to have believed that they bluffed successfully. The fact that we called the regime on its bluff and therefore perhaps sent the message that it is wise not to bluff regarding these matters apparently has no merit whatsoever in certain schools of thought.
« So Tell Me, Mr. Immelt, Why Are You Killing American Servicemen? — Comments (30) | Oil and drugs and uranium...oh my! — Comments (144) »
On Deterrence And Its Attendant Confusions 5 Comments (0 topical, 5 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
There is an old "Wizard of Id" strip where the man on the gallows says, "You got the wrong man". The King replies, "It will be a heck of a lesson to the right man."
I believe this sums up the situation on Saddam lied - or bluffed at any stage in the UN sanction game. The fact was that he was up to his eyeballs in UN fraud with several other states that would have been happy to keep being paid off.
Likewise, arguments that the intel was bad don't support arguments that we were wrong to believe the intel. It was what we had. I'm with the side that finds no problem with deposing Saddam. Perhaps arguments can be made that we were not thorough enough to ensure a real peace, but, that too, is a lesson for the next time.
One last point on this whole notion. Even if I totally buy the story that this was a bluff, designed to make it only SEEM like Sadaam had weapons you also have to consider Duelfler's report which stated taht though there were no stockpiles found, Sadaam had maintained his programs and had every reason to resume production once sanctions were lifted. The antiwar jackals kept harping on the sanctions which were causing all this death prior to the war, and were demanding that sanctions be lifted. The sanctions being the only deterrant that prevented Sadaam from resuming production. Duelfler said that the sanctions were in freefall, and if the inspection process had gone forward and nothing were found, woudldn't the left be demanding that sanctions be lifted?
If America didn't lift them, they would be cast as the villain (as usual), and France and Germany would continue to use oil for food as a means to both enrich themselves as well as weaken us influence. And while this was going on this would then mean that Sadaam would resume production of his weapons undeterred.
We'd then be dealing with an Iraq ramping up production of his WMDs as intended but also as a counter to Iran ramping up its production. We'd be having a dual problem with WMD"s for both Iraq and Iran right at this moment.
Again, that's assuming that this was true. I happen to sincerely doubt the final authority of both Kay's and Duefler's reports considering neither was able to access the sites prior to us going to war, or prior to sites being looted to the ground, or prior to trucks moving tons of stuff out of the country. If I was investigating a company and have evidence that they shredded documents and moved stuff out of the country so as to never be investigated, I wouldn't assume that they were completely aboveboard merely because I couldn't get my hands on the shredded documents.
returned from Iraq for the last time he said he was unsure if the WMD's would be found. Not that they weren't there but that they might not be found, a different statement. Well he's the guy who had the Gucci's on the ground so I guess he's complicit also.
If hindsight is 20/20 we've got a lot of eagles in America.
One of the things this administration did was fail to anticipate the removal of WMDs via truck to Syria for example. When sat photos showed the movement of such trucks, we should have had ordnance to stop them at the border. A Sp Op team to investigate, document, and get out. We would know the truth rather than speculate. Oh, and if the above was in fact done, its well past time to share what was found. But I suspect the planners did not consider the chess match this many moves ahead. A real problem when the media and a political party are breathing down your neck.

I don't necessarily buy the argument that they were bluffing the whole time, though that has been offered as one of the reasons Sadaam acted so guiltily. Because there's also the story the scientists tell about how Sadaam was telling them to make stuff and they were stringing him along out of fear for their lives. That contradicts the Sadaam bluffing idea. That would be a case of Sadaam not actually bluffing, but being lied to and believing the lies himself. The only reason his bluffs weren't actual would be because his scientists were incompetent.
Then there is the stuff like Sada saying that WMD's were moved via plane, and satellite imagery showing trucks being moved to Syria, not to mention sites looted to the ground. Which sounds like a cleanup operation. And, that would imply that Sadaam did have weapons but simply destroyed the stockpiles.
Ulitmately none of it matters though, as in all cases, whether he had weapons and destroyed them or whether he lied about having weapons or whether his scientists lied to him about weapons, all pointed to a threat that had to be dealt with.
If he was stupid enough to lie to protect himself, and he was convincing enough to make us target him, than that's his mistake.