Figures don't lie, but liars figure
By Seminole 6 Posted in User Blogs — Comments (20) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Saw a new poll (AP-Ipsos, whatever that is) out today. Another Democratic campaign commercial by dead tree media. Title: Most Americans Plan to Vote for Democrats
Here it is -http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060714/ap_on_go_co/republicans_ap_poll_2
With that title you know what is coming. The "poll found that Americans by an almost 3-to-1 margin hold the GOP-controlled Congress in low regard and profess a desire to see Democrats wrest control after a dozen years of Republican rule."
Pure spin? We all know that the congress is lower than low in polling. 3 to 1 margin? What was the question?
I notice they polled on Mon - Wednesday to maximize the Democratic response. Also polled registered voters. The poll said:
"Democrats also held the advantage among persuadable voters -- those who are undecided or wouldn't say whom they prefer. A total of 51 percent said they were leaning Democrat, while 41 percent were leaning Republican."
When did they invent "persuadable voters" and what is the criteria for such? Everyone is persuadable, question is - what will it cost to get their vote?
Don't know about you but 51/41 in a poll skewed to the Dems, as this surely is, looks pretty good to me. My take is that we are not in bad shape. I believe that we hold our ground with the house and maintain a majority in the senate.
flying around in out G5's or leisurely rides in our SUV's
the more that Dukakis was seen the worse the American people viewed him.
dantes, but my recollection is that Dems poll better numbers during the week.
Contrary information, anyone?
The first headline was not leaning sufficiently Democratic.
New Headline is:
POLL: AMERICANS WANT DEMOCRATS IN POWER
Same story, more spin -
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060714/ap_on_go_co/republicans_ap_poll_3
A maz ing :)
I would like to meet this mysterious race of conservatives!
I'm pretty sure Redstate isn't a good place to look for them...
are at work, too busy to answer polls. That's what I have heard, anyway.
Carter Goes Into Debate With Lead in New Poll
The Washington Post (1974-Current file) - Washington, D.C.
Author: By Martin Schram Washington Post Staff Writer
Date: Oct 28, 1980
Start Page: A1
Document Types: front_page
Text Word Count: 977
President Carter and Ronald Reagan meet in Cleveland tonight for the long-awaited debate that could be the crucial event in determining who will be the next president of the United States.
Poll Puts Mondale Even With Reagan
The Washington Post (1974-Current file) - Washington, D.C.
Author: By Norman D. Atkins Washington Post Staff Writer
Date: Jul 23, 1984
Start Page: A3
Document Types: article
Text Word Count: 480
Democratic presidential nominee Walter F. Mondale, on a post-convention fishing vacation in Gunflint Lake, Minn., did not catch any fish but hauled in some good news yesterday from a poll that showed him pulling even with President Reagan.
The Toronto Star, 5/19/88:
A CBS/New York Times poll released Monday said Dukakis leads Bush 49-39 per cent and would beat the vice-president in all regions of the country if the election were held now. A Lou Harris poll Sunday gave Dukakis a 50-43 per cent edge.
WaPo, 6/30/88
In the Gallup poll of 1,210 registered voters conducted last weekend, Dukakis held a 46-to-41 percent lead over Bush, compared with a 52-to-38 percent lead he held in a similar poll in mid-June. The poll found Dukakis losing ground among most key voter groups, particularly self-described Democrats and independents, a key swing group.
The ABC News-Money Magazine poll gave Dukakis a 3 point margin, essentially a dead heat under the margin of polling error. In the last Washington Post-ABC News poll at the end of the May, which used the same methodology as this one, Dukakis had an 11 point lead.
NYT, 7/26/88
In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll. This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.
Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
I was in a bit of a hurry when I posted and did not highlight all that should have been mentioned in this poll.
I am the first Republican to admit to grinding teeth and occasional swearing when I see some of the things administration touts. That said, I may threaten to set out an election, but in my wildest fit of rage I do not contemplate voting for the Dem - certainly not any of the Democratic candidates presently on the stump. I too would like to meet some of that 24% of conservatives the poll plowed up.
- the bottom line could be that day of the week does not necessarily matter for polling.
Not unless it's the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. That's the only day the Republicans ever win one of these polls. Prior to that, all we hear for months is how the Democrats are on their way to a Great Victory.
You'd think that after 30 years of doing this, the media would give up. It's not like they're fooling anyone but themselves.
but, as I said in another post, I did not find any support that I can point to for that statement.
Some of the stuff I skimmed leads me to think polling will never be accurate, no matter how "scientifically" it is conducted. This is due to the number of cell phones, answering machines, caller ID, etc. which, if anything, skews away from ever getting a valid sample in a phone poll.
Dukakis over Bush, Carter over Reagan, Mondale even? Given these excellent examples, I wonder why we pay attention to polls at all.
My original statement of midweek polls favoring the Democrats was not supported by anything I found with a quick search of opinion polls in general. I now understand that memory is the first to go.
Your examples seem to be from both midweek and weekend, so the bottom line could be that day of the week does not necessarily matter for polling.
Dems polled better on weekends, because conservatives were doing family stuff.
is the infamous picture of Dukakis in the turret of an M1 with a TC helmet on and - he looked like a smurf. That was the cruncher.
I honestly do not remember any turning point in the election. I don't think Reagan was never really down in the polls, he was popular, even with Democrats.
I've seen that pic. That was September 1988, so your theory makes sense.
Not surprisingly, 81 percent of self-described liberals said they would vote for the Democrat. Among moderates, though, 56 percent backed a Democrat in their district and almost a quarter of conservatives _ 24 percent _ said they will vote Democratic(emphasis mine).-Most Americans Plan to Vote for Democrats
I would like to meet this mysterious race of conservatives!
of a hole there for a while.
I was 9 at the time, so I don't remember any of this. How'd he get out of it before the election? Maybe whatever worked back then would work for Republicans now... or maybe Dukakis just imploded, something Democrats seem to do a lot.