SEN-MD: Mfume Ahead of Cardin in D Primary
By Adam C2 Posted in 2006 — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I noted back in April that the Democratic primary in Maryland was not cake walk for unexciting Congressman Cardin. A new Washington Post poll of likely voters (51D/29R/14I) conducted June 19-25 found:
Cardin (D) 26
Mfume (D) 33
Others (D) 11
Don't Know 30
Steele (R) 46
Mfume (R) 46
Steele (R) 40
Cardin (R) 52
These poll numbers reinforce the same message as most of the past polls. Lt. Gov. Steele is a strong candidate in a Democratic state and a win by Mfume is good for Steele. As I stated a few months ago:
First, a win by Mr. Mfume would be great news for Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Steele. Mr. Mfume is a polarizing candidate who will have a hard time winning over swing voters. Even if Mr. Mfume does not win the primary outright, a close race could also be helpful. If the race is close, both Mr. Cardin and Mr. Mfume will have to spend money and attack one another in a hope of pulling out a victory. All of this softens up the eventual candidate. Furthermore, if a close loss makes black voters feel abandoned by a state party that is roughly 50/50 racially and has never nominated a black Democrat to the positions of GOV, LT GOV, or SEN that can only help Mr. Steele make inroads into the community.
Looking at the stagnant numbers for Mfume and the slight drop for Cardin reinforces the idea that each new also-ran who joins the race edges off a few more Cardin-supporters and the die-hard Mfume faction becomes closer to being enough to win. At this point 11% of likely voters are choosing also-rans. Thus, one only needs 45% to win and Mfume is already at 33%. Also note the racial breakdown of the primary:
As they stand, the racial divisions are stark: In the primary, Mfume, who is black, gets 72 percent of his support from black voters, the poll shows. Cardin, who is white, gets 82 percent of his backing from white voters.
Unsurprisingly, the racial breakdown of the vote in the general election is also noted in the article.
For instance, if Cardin wins the Democratic primary, the poll shows that nearly a quarter of all black voters would back Steele. If Mfume wins the primary, black voters would stay with the Democratic Party, but Steele would see a nine-point jump in his support from white voters.
Along with Washington, New Jersey, and Minnesota, Maryland is a great pickup opportunity for Republicans. And from researching all the candidates, I still believe Mr. Steele would be the best addition to the Senate that Republicans could get this year.
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SEN-MD: Mfume Ahead of Cardin in D Primary 5 Comments (0 topical, 5 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Looks like the MD Dem primary voters are about to make the same mistake Dem primary voters made in the CA Governor's race - nominate the more liberal, and less electable, candidate.
Just when it seems like the Dems are making some (political) progress, they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Lucky us...
I will note that the dynamic is a bit different. CA Ds are moving left enough to allow moderate Rs to win. In MD, it really is a race-based primary right now rather than an ideological one. Mfume just has more skeletons and is considered more suspect by many voters (NAACP scandals and 5 children out of wedlock seem to be the main reasons). Voting-wise I don't think Cardin or Mfume would be very different.
though all the fine points in your post are correct, what with the departure from the democratic gubernatorial primary of Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan, the dems will have their first black candidate for Lt. Gov this year, (Delegate Anthony Brown) and Stu Simms, Duncan´s black lt. gov pick, joining the attorney generals´race, the dems will have a number of black candidates in a variety of races up and down the ticket. While the republicans have only one black person in the entire party running for a state'wide seat. Although a good number of blacks will go with Steele if Cardin wins the primary, the republicans still have a great deal of work to do in Maryland to win over blacks in any lasting alliance. an interesting race to watch nonetheless.
I vote for him to get the Dem nomination and then get destroyed by the Steele Deal.
That Kweize Wabbit...
First, Republicans can (correctly) point out that it took a Republican black candidate winning statewide to cajole the Democrats to nominate those black candidates this time around despite the fact that about 40% of Democratic primary voters are black.
Second, I think it would be great for the country if the black vote was more evenly split between the parties, but that is a long run goal. Several studies have shown that the same message delivered to a black audience by a black Republican or a white Democrat is more trusted when it comes from the black Republican. What makes that interesting is that there are many issues where black voters agree with the ideals of Republicanism (see Bill Cosby's recent adventures) but are suspicious of party and/or messenger. When someone like Mr. Steele runs for office, he can present the same message and win more votes with it.
Finally, if Oklahoma is any precedent after J.C. Watts won election in a white majority district, the state's black voters began voting Republican more overall. President Bush won 28% of the black vote in Oklahoma in 2004. It seems that once people start voting Republican, they start to give other Republicans a chance as well. It's a long run goal but a Steele win would help a lot in achieving it.