Redstate

Calderon 93, AMLO 6.

A 1% margin is pretty safe with 96% in.

The Mexican government was gridlocked before this election, and it looks like it will be even more so after it.

It's probably an exaggeration to refer to any Mexican party as being non-left in the American sense. Even the "right-wing" Calderon favored universal health care in his platform.

PAN President Fox had a PRI dominated legislature that was used to controlling everything.  President Calderon should have a PAN-led legislature.  On the margin, I think there should be less gridlock; however, I don't know nearly enough about the details of the personalities and parties to really make a prediction.

I happened to turn to Univision and Azteca last night just before the polls closed in Mexico.  It was fascinating enough to watch for another couple of horas.

Both Obrador and Calderon "had no doubt" that they had won.  Vicente Fox came on and said that he had the utmost confidence in the transparency of the election and the professionalism of the non-partisation "board of elections."

Statements and interviews indicated that the preliminary vote count will be announced Wednesday (5 July), with some kind of deadline next Sunday (9 July).  The ultimate deadline is September 6!

By law, the media aren't allowed to project winners until after the last poll closes.  News announcers followed that rule, and didn't seem all that partisan in announcing the virtual dead heat once returns began being announced.

PAN picked up some Governorships.  The two houses of "congress" are pretty evenly split three ways for the three major parties, with about a ten percent minority party representation.

I'm not following the minute-by-minute updates, but I was impressed with the way Mexican media handled the election.  I'm sure there will be the usual incriminations post-election among the candidates, but most of Mexico seemed happy to have just voted!

I wouldnt label the PRD as far left.  Theyre closer to left of center then anything else.  The PRI isnt really left of center in practice either.  Theyre extreme-right insofar as authoritarianism goes, but also tend to favor neoliberal economic policies, which is what really matters in this election.  Im pretty sure PAN will be able to push its economic policies well enough and any other major legislation, so long as theyre diplomatic and dont isolate themselves from PAN and the PRD.

Most authoritarian governments in Latin America have been quite socialistic.  They have been closer to the USSR on the spectrum than Nazi Germany as far as authoritarian governments go.  Mexico's was no different.  In the 1990s, the two Presidents started to embrace capitalism about as much as Democrats do in the US.  They (like, say Clinton) approved of NAFTA.  But the level of regulation an corruption in the economy still hampers the market.  PRD was running on a platform of "more government solutions" rather than on a platform of getting rid of the corrupt parts of government.  If Lopez was running in the US, he wouldn't make it through a Democratic primary.  He would probably be closer to the Greens in the US, that's far-left on the American spectrum.

PAN is closer to a Clintonian center-left or McCain center-right.  They support free trade and want to focus on rooting out corruption without increasing the bureaucracy.  They want businesses to be able to create jobs so less people flee the country to find work.

PRI is just an institutional party really.  But most of their history was in the mold of Latin American socialism, thus the characterization as center-left.

38.7% to 35.6%

There will not be a runoff.  Higher vote wins the election.  As for Congress, it is more complicated.

There are 300 seats that are decided by the elections in this vote.  There are also 200 assigned by proportional representation.  Those are assigned in a way that exaggerates the plurality winner.  Here are the results of the past two elections.  Last time, the PRI won 31% of the vote and achieved 45% of the seats.  It is possible, although unlikely, that PAN could end up with a majority.  Otherwise, they will coalition with someone to form a majority.  The PRI are not very ideological so I would expect that would be the coalition partner but I'm not that well versed in the recent horsejockeying.

In most parliamentary, multi-party states, the party that wins a plurality is given ample opportunity to form a coalition.  The PRI is mainly an institutional party rather than an ideological one, although their governance was generally center-left.    I expect that the PRI will sign on with PAN to form a coalition but I don't know the quirks of the Mexican system that well.

Just read this thread after listening to NPR's Morning Edition this a.m. From the radio stories, I had no idea that signs showed Calderon to have the lead; NPR's reporters left the impression that both candidates had equal claim. (Albeit noting that Lopez was first out of the block claiming victory. I did interpret that bit of information as indicating a leftist power grab, but then, history is my guide.)

The report was followed by a sympathetic portrait of those who bused from the U.S. to Tijuana to vote in the election. One person they interviewed was a naturalized U.S. citizen voting in his former home, Mexico.

Perhaps it's cause for a separate thread, but let me just say, that fellow should have his citizenship revoked. You haven't abandoned your allegiance to foreign rulers and potentates if you're still voting in Mexico.

Elsewhere, coverage of U.S. residents voting in Mexico focused more on those illegals who didn't vote because of fear they'd be found out. AP story here.

I'd love to be able to fly back to Oregon this November and vote against Ted Kulongoski in the governor's race. But I don't because I'm a D.C. resident. Outmoded thinking, I know.

I'm unsure, but I don't think, based on this, that there will be a runoff.

Fox won with 43% in 2000.

their party slogans (or are they individual slogans?) are really lame, heh

if, as looks probable, no candidate reaches 50%?

discouraging, if that's the case, that 60+% of the population, as with the congressional election (how much good will this plurality do?), have gone for a left-of-center candidate.

though maybe the far left is too far left for the center-left. Calderon would need 50% of Madrazo's support, while Lopez needs 75%. which is all getting ahead of things if there is no runoff...

...at 12.8%.  Good early sign... but still very early.

Note that there are multiple firms doing exit polls, but here is one I found:

Caldreon 37

Lopez 33

down to 2.5% (38.24 to 35.77) with 37% reporting

this could be a squeaker.

Apparently, Lopez-Obrador didn't get the memo that "the poor" are supposed to be called "working class".

It makes middle class people think that they are included in that group.

considering they're taking 25-26% in the congressional elections, and only 19% in the presidential elections, when the other two parties are within just a few points, it seems like most of the hard bleeding to the leftist party (+6%, or to PAN (+3%)...interesting question is how much of each is from PRI (-6-7%) and how much from the shrinkage in Nueva Alianza (-3.5%) from congressional polling) is already accounted for. so a PAN-PRI coalition looks quite likely.

If you believe the AP:

Thousands of Lopez Obrador supporters, waiting for hours in the cold rain in Mexico City's central plaza, began shouting "Fraud! Fraud!" when Ugalde came on live television to announce the delay. Lopez Obrador said late Sunday that he would respect the delay in declaring a winner, "but I want the Mexican people to know that our figures show we won."

Looks like the good guys have been winning this week (Cannon on Tuesday, Calderon today).

PAN 38.6 and in the lead.

Wouldn't it be nice to have had the actual recounts completed to dismiss this issue without depending on post "analysis". If it was such a sure thing, why were the recounts stopped? That makes no sense at all. That's biting the hand that feeds you. Bad pr to boot.

They fine people $25 in Australia for not voting. Great idea.

First, the problem with the recount (IIRC) was that Gore wanted to only recount in districts where he led by a lot (the Miami area).  If they recounted the whole state that may be fair.  And also, I thought they did do one recount why else would we have been obsessed with hanging chads?

Second, I totally oppose the fine.  I think non-voting makes a statement and people should be able to do it.  It either says "I don't like either of them" or "I don't care," both of which are fine answers to our political system.  If you want more people to vote, give them a positive reason to do so rather than fining them to not do so.

but with appx. one third of the seats in the legislature being divided between the three parties that means that the two left wing parties can easily form a coalition and get what they want does it not?

37.97% to 35.81%

I wonder if there's a Mexican Dan Rather?

"This race is hotter than a Nuevo Laredo Rolex."

Not that intrade has never been wrong before (a lot of Dems had to declare bankrupcty in 2004 after betting the mobile home on what they thought was a sure bet), but it is right most of the time.

Incidentally, the almost infallible campaignline.com was also fooled by the Kerry propaganda of 2004.  Kerry's campaign put out the meme that prognosticators should ignore all scientific evidence pointing toward a Bush win and accept Kerry's contention that liberals (and college students and Bruce Springstein fans) were going to turn out in unprecedented numbers and shock the world.  Campaignline only makes a prediction when it believes that a race has a clear favorite.  It ignored its own criteria and declared Kerry the favorite the day before the election.  Despite being right 98% of the time, it took a loss on that one.

We call that "drinking the kool-aid".

Good live-blogging of the election from Mark in Mexico.

He just concluded an interview with Televisa where he claims he has won and will not accept any other result. He said, unbelievably, "Go to the IFE and see the results. They have declared me the winner." That's not even close to the truth. The IFE's results show that Calderon leads AMLO by about 1.5 percent of the vote and the IFE is not declaring anyone the winner and will not until at least Wednesday. Calderon has been forced to respond. Calderon also suggests visiting the IFE where the federal elections board has him with a 1.5 percent lead over AMLO. That is true.

AMLO is stoking the fires of a popular revolt, ala Chavez.

That popular revolt has already manifested itself in Oaxaca. The president of the state's IFE has been kidnapped by some striking teachers' union members. They are accusing him of changing vote totals to benefit the PRI. In addition, some of the votes here in the capitol city of Oaxaca de Juarez were taken to the headquarters of the Policia Preventiva so they could be counted in a secure environment. The teachers attacked the PP headquarters and took votes, election officials and police as hostages. I don't know where those people are now.

You can rest assured that, if someone doesn't convince AMLO to shut his mouth, this is going to get nastier yet.

I don't know what to call it but PAN has gained seats which hopefully will help Calderon push his neoliberal economic reforms.  He will need help from the conservative-leaning members of the PRI.

http://www.amlo.org.mx/

400,000 votes doesn't seem that close to me.

I went to that website and I didn't see the "Click here for English" button. Do they expect me to know Spanish or something? What's up with that?

Don't tell me Mexico has all the election and ballot stuff as Spanish only? I guess the glories of Multi-culturalism has yet to reach this Latin paradise.

as in the "go across the border and make the Americans pay for it" plan?

If I remember my South American history correctly, most of the military juntas came to power being opposed to communism.

As far as the PRI goes, if the same people who approved NAFTA still run the party today, then Calderon and PAN shouldnt have a problem getting their economic legislation through.

I still wouldnt consider the PRD far left.  Mexico had a far left candidate, Patricia Mercado (who had the funniest campaign slogan Id ever seen).  Lopez wasnt nearly as left as Evo Morales, Hugo Chavez, or Olanta Humala, whom I would consider the real far left.  Id say he fits in much more with the likes of Alan Garcia and Luiz Lula.

They did a recount, but weren't satisfied.  The problem was when these pro-Democrat counties started doing these manual recounts with these ludicrious, subjective standards.

At this time, I would put it at somewhere between 70-80% so Tradesports and I are seeing things the same.

Mexico State has over 2/3 of its votes in, which means that Obrador won't have a last-minute push from that region.  Things are looking good (albeit tight) for Calderon.

Gore is still, to this day, pushing the lie that but for the US Supreme Court, he won Florida--most recently (that I know of) on the "Daily Show" while pushing his misleading movie.

Just a little reminder for algore, who seems to have some trouble with reality:

----------------------

From:

Under the two most likely scenarios, Bush Wins Florida

By Joel Engelhardt, Elliot Jaspin and Christine Stapleton

Palm Beach Post, Nov. 12, 2001

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/politics/content/news/election2000/bush_wins.h
tml

excerpt:

Al Gore was doomed. He couldn't have caught George W. Bush even if his two best chances for an official recount had played out, according to a Palm Beach Post analysis of 175,010 uncounted Florida ballots from last November's chaotic presidential election. Had every county scrutinized every disputed under-vote by hand, as ordered by the Florida Supreme Court, Bush still would have won, the analysis shows. In the other post-election strategy pursued by Gore, had Miami-Dade County completed its recount altogether and Palm Beach County completed its count on time, that too would not have been enough to overcome Bush's 537-vote lead.

----------------------

From:

Florida Recounts Would Have Favored Bush

By Dan Keating and Dan Balz

Washington Post, November 12, 2001

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&con
tentId=A12623-2001Nov11

excerpts:

In all likelihood, George W. Bush still would have won Florida and the presidency last year if either of two limited recounts -- one requested by Al Gore, the other ordered by the Florida Supreme Court -- had been completed, according to a study commissioned by The Washington Post and other news organizations.

[...]

The study showed that if the two limited recounts had not been short-circuited -- the first by Florida county and state election officials and the second by the U.S. Supreme Court -- Bush would have held his lead over Gore, with margins ranging from 225 to 493 votes, depending on the standard.

[...]

The study indicates, for example, that Bush had less to fear from the recounts underway than he thought. Under any standard used to judge the ballots in the four counties where Gore lawyers had sought a recount -- Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Volusia -- Bush still ended up with more votes than Gore, according to the study. Bush also would have had more votes if the limited statewide recount ordered by the Florida Supreme Court and then stopped by the U.S. Supreme Court had been carried through. Had Bush not been party to short-circuiting those recounts, he might have escaped criticism that his victory hinged on legal maneuvering rather than on counting the votes.

[...]

Nor was there any guarantee that Gore could have succeeded in getting a statewide recount. Florida law provided no mechanism to ask for a statewide recount, only county-by-county recounts. And although he did at one point call on Bush to join him in asking for a statewide recount, it was with the condition that Bush renounce all further legal action. Bush dismissed the offer, calling it a public relations gesture by his opponent, and Gore never took any further steps toward that goal.

[...]

Had all four counties completed their recounts, as requested by Gore, and been included in the state certification, Bush still would have been declared the winner, but by just 225 votes, according to the analysis by The Post and other news organizations. The Florida Supreme Court's Dec. 8 order for a statewide manual recount of all undervote ballots also would have resulted in Bush as the winner, the study found. Gore's team protested when the U.S. Supreme Court on Dec. 9 agreed to the Bush campaign's request for a stay, halting that recount in midstream. But the study found that a count of all undervotes in the state would have left Bush ahead of Gore by 430 votes.

And the spread is about 1.7 points

Calderon at 37.7%, Lobez Obrador at 36.0%

The actual hard total is about 400,000 votes difference between the two.

...are happening tomorrow morning in Mexico, then I guess we'll know that Lopez lost. Like most liberals, Lopez probably has the sore-loser/tantrum-thrower vote all sewn up. For them, it's never over.

...should be the last to report...Good news for Calderon...

Actually according to the website that Adam linked in RedHot, it appears that about 2/3 of the Baja precincts are already reported.

With almost 68% reporting Calderon is at 37.33% and Lopez is at 36.25%.  The raw differential is about 310,000 votes.

This looks like it will be very close and won't be called for some time.

It does look like things are better for Calderon.....

Mexico seems to divide their states into 5 groups.  Lopez is winning three of them, and Calderon 2.  But, of 2 of the 3 Lopez groups seems to be reporting near 80% of their totals.  The Calderon groups are still only in the upper 60s in terms of returns.  The third Lopez groups seems to be the smallest in terms of total votes but is only reporting a little under 60% of precincts.

Very unscientific extrapolation from this seems to suggest that there will be more Calderon votes coming in as we progress than Lopez votes, as the Calderon areas "catch-up" in terms of precincts reporting.

The Federal district, with it's 1.3 million margin for Lopez, is almost all in, with just under 1,000 precints left. It's really hard to see where AMLO is going to be able to find the votes to close the 300,000 vote gap since that stronghold is almost all in. Of course his party could have recently consulted with King County Democrats, in which case chickens shouldn't be counted yet.

They seem to think Calderon will hold:

Calderon 80.0

Lopez-Obrador 10.1

Change "rally support for" to "rally support against."  I got so caught up making sure to use the right word instead of just 'amnesty' that my mind wandered as I got up to that point in the sentence I guess.

Looks like El Universal has called it for PAN across the board.

I was worried there that we'd have a Chavez-lite across the border, even though I thought it'd be a GREAT development from the perspective of someone who's hoping to continue to rally support for any sort of clemency, amnesty, or other legalization for illegal aliens.