Redstate

This is a seat I'd have considered safe for the Dems.  If this seat is up in the air, then are those "30-seat loss" reports really valid, or just a bunch of hot air?

In a bad year for the GOP, they should be getting blown out in Vermont.

Other than Leahy, the Dems still haven't won a statewide House/Sen/Gov race in VT since Dean left the Governor's mansion.  If this year's slate produces two Republicans and one Socialist, the Democratic Party in VT has to wonder what happened in the nation's most liberal state.

Well it is an open seat.  While VT is not Bush country, it has a Republican history that can still be seen in the GOV and LT GOV seats which are in Republican hands.  The State House was Republican before 2004 when they seem to have routed losing 14 of the 150 seats.  Maybe Ms. Rainville is more similar to Gov. Douglas and Lt. Gov. Dubie and fits VT better than President Bush does.

Don't play cute word games here.  Sanders and Jeffords were both functionally Democrats or even more liberal than the average one.  There was no need to have a Democrat win or even challenge the seat that either of them held or now are aiming for.

In 2002---Nobody thought a Republican could win the Governor's seat in Vermont, but Republican Jim Douglas shackled Doug Racine, Dean's Lt. Gov. Then he was reelected to another two year term in 04.  Douglas will get a third term in 06, and it might have some coattails for Rainville even, but little if any.

The only problem I have with NH and VT is that I think they should get rid of the two year term thing, to provide some stability in their governors.

Oh yeah, a party can take that to the bank.  Right along side those moral victories when Republicans win seats, getting those 'functional Democrats' when Republicans and Socialists win seats is a surefire way to build the Democratic party.

So how much money does a "functional Democrat" deliver to the party?  How many new voters does one bring in to the party tent?

But please, by all means, keep believing moral victories and functional Democrats are the path to a resurgent Democrat Party.

While the Dems may go +9-11 in the House, if they had it in the bag, this would be a 20% win for the Blue Team.

This would be delicious if Dean's own home state went Red, but part of me fears this is like the Dems' attempts to flip Bush states in 2004 like VA, MS, AL, GA in the Presidential Race.

In Vermont its important to know if they weighted correctly the "city" vs "hills".

The progressive papers have been trying to lay it on Rainville, clearly without

too much success. Still an uphill climb as the voting day turnout will probably

lean Dem (unless the local Republicans leave some hash brownies out around Burlington!)

The impression I've gotten from people up there is they don't hate the guy but really don't love him either.  But Douglas hasn't done anything dreadful so he is likely to keep the swing independents which should give him the edge.

Bernie would either have to die (still not a guaranty) or do something completely and totally off the wall to lose.  

Before Clinton, VT was a fairly solid Red state.  Imports from MA, CT, NJ and NJ pushed it the other way.  

the 370 year history of the Vermont National Guard? As in 1636? Wonder why the early Massachusetts govs didn't request their deployment during their troubles in the ensuing decades.

(former Vermonter here)

but I have to wonder how a state about to vote 56% for the socialist Sanders is going to elect a Republican to take his old seat.

One thing is certain:  if Rainville wins, it won't be a Big Blue night.

In small states a politician can meet many of the likely voters in a campaign.  Once in office for a few terms, he or she cna meet almost all of the likely voters.  This is how Ds win in ND or SD.  VT is a little bigger but just a bit.

But you'd think they'd be blowing the GOP away in Howard Dean's home state.  I just have to wonder how much of that "30-seat loss" is just smoke being blown.

continues to run a good campaign and keeps his nose clean he has a chance to win.   Most of Sanders' big early lead are from name recognition.  I think if the numbers are within say 5% by election day Tarrant wins.  Sanders is just a little too socialist for the US Senate - even for Vermont voters.  Congress is one thing, Senator is another.  Besides, for the uniformed voter, Tarrant looks better ;-)

I also think the people of Vermont have had their fill of having an "Independent" Senator with no power due to being outside the party structure.  

This poll showing a dead heat for Vermont's lone House seat is no fluke.  A July 12,2006 poll from Public Opinion Strategies showed this as a dead heat as well.  The poll based on a survey of 450 likely voters completed in Vermont June 14-15, 2006.  The margin of error on the survey is plus or minus 4.6%.

The congressional race is a statistical tie; Martha Rainville is polling 42% to Peter Welch's 45%. In terms of intensity, the race is tied as well. Twenty-eight percent are definitely voting for Rainville while 30% are definitely voting for Welch.

And has been for a while.  Chris Cillizza's blog on Washingtonpost.com has it so rated.

The DCCC has already anounced they are going to spend $600,000 on this race.  Let's send a message to them and Howard Dean and turn this seat red.  You can contribute here:

http://www.martharainville.com/contribute.htm

I live in the People's Republic of Vermont and we have a reall good shot to win this seat, but will need your help!