Redstate

By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in Foreign Affairs — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

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The Israeli onslaught in Lebanon and Hezbollah's daily victories in the regional public relations war over the conflict threaten to claim a victim in Iran: whatever hope remained of resurrecting the political reform movement.

Day by day, even as Iran's officials assess the military setbacks of Hezbollah, they have grown more and more emboldened by the gathering support in the Islamic world for the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia on the front line with Israel. They have grown more and more emboldened by what they see as a validation of their confrontational approach to foreign policy -- and in their efforts to silence political opposition at home.

That is the view of at least some opposition figures, analysts and former government officials who say they find themselves in the awkward position of opposing Israel and sympathizing with the Lebanese people, yet fear what might happen should Hezbollah prevail.

Such an outcome, they say, would strengthen the hand of the hard-liners now in control of Iran's government, including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose firebrand opposition to the West has taken Iran back to the early days of the Islamic Revolution, when the country's leadership focused more on exporting its revolutionary ideas than on integrating Iran with the rest of the world.

In the tense environment, where anyone who questions the leadership's full-throated support for Hezbollah can face public vilification, few people who express such opinions are willing to be quoted by name. But the anger, the feeling of conflicting concerns and the fear of a future political crackdown appear to be spreading.

"A victory of violence in this region will make it more difficult for all of us," said a former official who served in the government of Mr. Ahmadinejad's predecessor, Mohammad Khatami. "Of course, I would prefer a Hezbollah victory over an Israeli victory,'' he said, "but ..."

The perception that Israel has lost the battle for hearts and minds, and that Hezbollah and Iran have won, was reinforced by the Israeli attack on the Lebanese village of Qana, which killed dozens of civilians, including many children. That notion has not changed the dynamics in Tehran so much as intensified them.

Was there any actual belief that Israel could win the battle for hearts and minds in present-day Iran or in the Arab world? If a relentless rocket bombardment of Israeli cities and the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers was not enough to help Israel win sympathy in these quarters, what is?

There are Iranian reformers named in the article who are deeply concerned that a Hezbollah victory will strengthen the hand of the regime. By these rights, perhaps they should root for Israel. It is simplistic to always say that the enemy of your enemy is your friend, but sometimes, it's true.

Meanwhile, it is worth remembering that the regime is not so strong after all.