Redstate

Posted at 9:19pm on Feb. 5, 2008 Su-Fu-Tuesday Brings Clarity, Fear

What a terrible horrible no good very bad day

By Ben Domenech

Super Effing Tuesday is upon us, in all its fearsome glory. Were I in a state that was voting, I'd have rented out a dive bar for conservatives to join in a raucous celebration of this momentous triumph of suck.

We've had all the predictions, and there are tons of open threads to occupy you here tonight. But there are three points that I think will likely emerge as the night goes on:

1. McCain will not lock this up tonight. He'll have to go on to win Virginia and likely all the way to Texas, but if the exit polls hold, he has to hope that Huckabee - who's played his wingman for about the past three weeks - continues to play nice and is content to coast to being the Last Action Hero's Veep.

2. Romney continues to perform horribly in the South, despite having a ton of endorsements and a very good campaign organization. The South is still the most personality-driven political arena in America, and there are some things that not even money and machines can overcome. I don't think he's going to get enough momentum out of the West to change that in the coming primaries.

3. I respect Dr. Dobson more than a lot of other folks, but the idea of releasing a statement that he'll stay home and won't vote in a McCain-Clinton election this late in the game indicates to me that he isn't all that enthused about throwing support to Huckabee or Romney. Had Dobson announced this a week ago, he would've had a definite impact today, and moved a few key points to whoever he wished. But by waiting and making this a non-factor, I think it's a sign that as much as he dislikes McCain, Dobson is resigned to the fact that he's the likeliest nominee.

My prescription for getting through the night: I recommend strong bourbon and a large dose of Michael Barone and Karl Rove.

[Update:] Romney's speech tonight seemed more resigned than optimistic. This one hurts, and I just don't think his heart's in it any more.

As for Huckabee, his staff is just giddy: with the potential for wins in AR, GA, AL, WV, MO and TN, this is a much better night than anyone expected, and unless Romney performs above expectations in California, Huckabee's path to victory, while still very unlikely, is now much more realistic than Romney's. KS, VA, TX, MS, NC, KY...all of these are states where Huckabee can have a far more realistic foothold than Romney.

Posted in 2008 | Fred Thompson Is Not Running | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney — Comments (257)/ Email this page » / Read More »